Tag Archive for 'Bport' at NY NJ PA Weather Forecasts

Growing Snow Threat For Next Weekend

January 4th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

10:30 AM
The pattern developing for the end of the week and into the weekend is one of a classic KU set up that we’ve seen before. Now, before everyone goes nuts, I am not suggesting that a KU storm is on the way. I can’t say that at for another 3 or 4 days. What [...]

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Thoughts On The Afternoon Model Guidance

January 2nd, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

9:20 PM
There’s a lot of excitement over the trend of the model guidance towards a colder solution for Tuesday night and Wednesday, specifically the 18Z GFS.
While I can understand the excitement, I want to state that the 18Z GFS does not exactly have the strongest of support. While I agree that a coastal low is [...]

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Active Pattern Continues For Next Week

January 2nd, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

7:30 AM
The new year is certainly starting off with a bang this year, unfortunately that does not mean snow for all.
The main theme through this period will be the changing Pacific and Atlantic patterns. The negative NAO block will begin to weaken, however already the ECMWF is backing away from the complete collapse idea and [...]

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Active And Blocking Pattern Ready To Rock Start Of 2009

December 31st, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

8:07 AM
There are some interesting themes that are coming from the medium range guidance over the past few runs that need to be addressed as we move into the first full week of January, 2009.
The first theme that the model generally agree on is that the block over Greenland will significantly intensify to build down [...]

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Warm Weekend Ahead, Enjoy It While You Can

December 26th, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

7:59 AM
The weather will be no excuse this weekend on whether retail sales will be up or down, that’s for sure! The upper level pattern at this current time has the storm track well north and west of the forecast area. The negative NAO is still developing and the current block is not in place [...]

Tags: Albany, Allentown, area, Atlantic City, atmosphere, Belmar, blocking, Bport, caa, clouds, cloudy skies, cold, cold front, Connecticut, continuation, crash, current time, degree drop, dominance, eastern greenland, er, evening hours, evenings, excelerate, excuse, forecast, forecast area, forecaster, forecasters, Freehold, front, greenland, Hartford, high, interaction, Islip, late evening, Long Island, low, lows, nao, New Jersey, New York, New York City, Newark, normal, normal temperatures, north, norther, northwester, Pennsylvania, periods, Philadelphia, Poughkeepsie, precipitation, Reading, retail sales, Ridge, risk, s, scattered showers, Scranton, showers, Storm, storm track, storms, sunday afternoon, sunday evening, Sussex, systems, temperature, temperatures, waa, warm, warm atmosphere, warm sector, weather, west, White Plains, Wild Wood, wills. Technical Discussions Add a comment

Thoughts On The Greenland Block Developing

December 24th, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

7:12 AM
I don’t think there needs to be any more debate on whether the NAO will go negative or whether a block will form over Greenland. The fact is that the block has already formed over the eastern North Atlantic (think northwestern Europe) and is starting to retrograde towards Greenland.
Now what does this block [...]

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Initial Warm Period To Give Way To Cold And Stormy Pattern

December 24th, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

6:53 AM
Instead of the several days of warm conditions, the developing negative NAO and pattern amplification will give the forecast area two warm days and some perfect timing for the weekend! Well, almost perfect as I expect rain, but at least there won’t be any serious travel problems.
A cold front will slowly move towards [...]

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Difficult Forecast With Huge Bust Potential And Significant Ice And Snow Amounts

December 19th, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

12:21 AM
You know, model guidance is suppose to get better and into strong agreement less than 24 hours away from an event. Unfortuantly for the forecast area and this forecaster, that was not the case tonight as the GFS went extreme warm and the NAM/WRF went colder.
So with no trust what so ever in [...]

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A Snowy Tricky Forecast For Friday

December 17th, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

5:58 PM
The watches are going up and the excitement is growing. Well, for some at least. We have another winter storm on the way for the forecast area on Friday. However, I have a slightly different take on this forecast and I still have a lot of uneasiness about this storm in general, especially over [...]

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Key For Winter Storms Is Strength Of High Pressure

December 17th, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

9:55 AM
The main theme and determining factor for the next two storms will play out over our neighbors to the north as strong Arctic high pressure ridges and builds over southeastern Canada and into New England. I’m going to focus on each storm separately in this post, however the overall theme remains the same.
FRIDAY THROUGH [...]

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