Busts | NY NJ PA Weather Forecasts

Snow And Ice Totals And Thoughts On The Storm

January 29th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

5:40 AM
For most of the forecast area, the forecasted ice and snow totals verified via reports from the National Weather Service. The one area that busted was in northeastern Pennsylvania where 6 to 10 inches of snow was expected. Instead, most locations in extreme northeastern Pennsylvania only received around 4 inches. When I looked back [...]

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Another Tough Forecast On The Way

January 26th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

7:30 AM
You know, I would love to forecast an all snow event at some point. Just look at the QPF, multiply by 10 or 12, then here’s the snow map. Oh no, not this winter. haha
Model guidance is still all over the place on exactly how this storm will play out for the forecast area, [...]

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Active Pattern Leads To Model Uncertainty And Increasing Chances Of Snow

January 21st, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

7:08 AM
To say that the forecast for this weekend into next week is challenging is like say doing a triple axil in ice skating is kind of hard. The problem with model guidance is two fold. First, the model guidance is having difficulty in forecasting the position and strong of the upper level ridge over [...]

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Yesterday’s Concerns Coming To Fruition

January 18th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

4:09 PM
Yesterday morning, I posted a forecast and discussion about my concerns that at least light to possibly moderate snow will build into coastal New Jersey through Connecticut this evening with lighter snow’s to the north and west. I admit I did back off on that idea after seeing just about every model I could [...]

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Virga Building, Carefully Monitoring

January 18th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

2:50 PM
If you are wondering why I am not shooting out rapid updates, it is because I am trying to be very careful in what I am seeing this afternoon.
Personally, the issue at hand is I don’t want to go off screaming snow storm developing and then it does. That would kill my credibility of [...]

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Very Difficult Forecast Setting Up The Next Two Days

January 17th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

9:30 AM
I have been working hard on this forecast and taking the pros and cons of each model solution. The overall idea here is that for much of the forecast area, this entire set up is not much of a big deal as the brunt of the storm will miss the region. However, I have some [...]

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Thursday Snow Is All About Location, And Some Will NOT Like It

January 14th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

7:11 AM
The latest model guidance this morning basically is describing what I posted last night. The surface low pressure moves over southern Pennsyvlania through southern New Jersey and then begins to intensify off the New Jersey coast. What would like drive those living in Philadelphia and southeastern Pennsylvania nuts is the forecasted QPF on the [...]

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Keep An Eye On That Radar

January 13th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

7:06 AM
That’s going to be the theme for the next 12 to 24 hours along the immediate coast. I would love to write this morning that all guidance has this coastal storm well off the coast, a few snow showers in the evening, and nothing more. I would love to say that because then there [...]

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Come On Charlie Brown, I Won’t Pull Away The Football!

January 12th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

7:20 AM
Do you remember the cartoon where Lucy is holding the football and teasing Charlie Brown to come along and kick the ball. Charlie knows Lucy is just going to pull the ball away, but he goes with it anyway. This situation seems just like that!
Side tangent, if that happened today, Charlie could have sued [...]

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Significant Snow Storm Expected For The Forecast Area

January 9th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

7:42 AM
I was really tempted to issue a Stage 3 Alert for locastions from Philadelphia through the New York City metro including central New Jersey and the southern Hudson Valley and Connecticut. However, I think it would be wise to wait for 12Z guidance to confirm the trends and developments I am seeing this morning.
My [...]

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