5:40 AM

For most of the forecast area, the forecasted ice and snow totals verified via reports from the National Weather Service.  The one area that busted was in northeastern Pennsylvania where 6 to 10 inches of snow was expected.  Instead, most locations in extreme northeastern Pennsylvania only received around 4 inches.  When I looked back at the archived radar data, the reason for the snowfall result was striking.  A strong band of snow supported by strong frontogenesis, most likely around 700 MB, developed over easter-central Pennsylvania.  The strong rising motion of the atmosphere produced a strong sinking motion or subsidence over northeastern Pennsylvania and suppressed the precipitation (which would have been heavy snow) over northeastern Pennsylvania and the general Binghamton, New York area.  Thus the difficulties of forecasting for a snow storm, cause sometimes you’ll get a forecasted destroyed by a development like that.  

To be fair though, I was surprised with how far north the warm air got into the Hudson Valley and into northern Pennsylvania.  The ECMWF model scored another big win as the low pressure system significantly intensified more than any model had forecasted, except the ECMWF of course.  

The Results:

DELAWARE

...NEW CASTLE COUNTY...
   BEAR                   1.8   100 PM  1/28
   WILMINGTON             1.8   100 PM  1/28   AIRPORT

...SUSSEX COUNTY...
   GREENWOOD              1.0   700 AM  1/28

MARYLAND

...QUEEN ANNE`S COUNTY...
   STEVENSVILLE           2.5   700 AM  1/28

...TALBOT COUNTY...
   EASTON                 1.8   700 AM  1/28   COCORAHS

NEW JERSEY

...ATLANTIC COUNTY...
   ESTELL MANOR           3.1   800 AM  1/28
   ATLANTIC CITY          1.5   700 AM  1/28   AIRPORT
   HAMMONTON              1.5   700 AM  1/28
   PLEASANTVILLE          1.5   700 AM  1/28

...BURLINGTON COUNTY...
   CROSSWICKS             2.0   750 AM  1/28   SPOTTER REPORT
   EDGEWATER PARK         2.0   800 AM  1/28
   MOUNT LAUREL           1.9   800 AM  1/28
   WRIGHTSTOWN            1.9   700 AM  1/28
   MOUNT HOLLY            1.7   425 AM  1/28   NWS OFFICE
   LUMBERTON              1.5   730 AM  1/28
   SOUTHAMPTON            1.5   435 AM  1/28

...CAMDEN COUNTY...
   STRATFORD              2.0   300 AM  1/28
   SOMERDALE              1.8   700 AM  1/28
   VOORHEES               1.7   430 AM  1/28   SNOW AND SLEET
   HADDONFIELD            1.5   205 AM  1/28
   PENNSAUKEN             1.5   700 AM  1/28

...CUMBERLAND COUNTY...
   NEWPORT                2.3  1015 AM  1/28   SPOTTER REPORT
   VINELAND               2.0   115 AM  1/28   SPOTTER REPORT

...GLOUCESTER COUNTY...
   NATIONAL PARK          2.7   100 PM  1/28
   GLASSBORO              1.8   455 AM  1/28
   WEST DEPTFORD          1.5  1230 PM  1/28
   WOODBURY               1.5   251 AM  1/28

...HUNTERDON COUNTY...
   WHITEHOUSE             3.5   634 AM  1/28
   FLEMINGTON             3.1   930 AM  1/28   SPOTTER REPORT
   WERTSVILLE             2.7   730 AM  1/28
   RIEGELSVILLE           2.5   700 AM  1/28
   CALIFON                2.4   800 AM  1/28   SPOTTER REPORT

...MERCER COUNTY...
   PRINCETON              3.0   900 AM  1/28   SPOTTER REPORT
   TRENTON                3.0   454 AM  1/28
   EWING                  2.8   702 AM  1/28
   HIGHTSTOWN             2.2   700 AM  1/28
   YARDVILLE              2.0   701 AM  1/28

...MIDDLESEX COUNTY...
   EDISON                 3.1   715 AM  1/28
   METUCHEN               2.8   633 AM  1/28
   PLAINSBORO             2.8   604 AM  1/28
   NEW BRUNSWICK          2.6   800 AM  1/28

...MONMOUTH COUNTY...
   MANALAPAN              3.5   745 AM  1/28
   OAKLAND MILLS          3.3   850 AM  1/28   PUBLIC
   COLTS NECK             3.0   712 AM  1/28   SPOTTER REPORT
   CREAM RIDGE            2.8   819 AM  1/28   SPOTTER REPORT
   MARLBORO               2.3   644 AM  1/28
   MANASQUAN              1.8   700 AM  1/28

...MORRIS COUNTY...
   OAK RIDGE              3.5  1001 AM  1/28   SPOTTER REPORT
   MARCELLA               3.4   850 AM  1/28   SPOTTER REPORT
   OAK RIDGE RESERVOIR    3.1   800 AM  1/28
   BUTLER                 3.0   737 AM  1/28
   LAKE HOPATCONG         3.0   800 AM  1/28
   POTTERSVILLE           2.9   730 AM  1/28
   ROCKAWAY               1.6   500 AM  1/28   SPOTTER REPORT

...OCEAN COUNTY...
   TOMS RIVER             1.5   421 AM  1/28
   TUCKERTON              1.0   649 AM  1/28   SPOTTER REPORT

...SALEM COUNTY...
   PITTSGROVE             2.1   730 AM  1/28

...SOMERSET COUNTY...
   SOMERVILLE             3.0   745 AM  1/28   SPOTTER REPORT
   BRANCHBURG PARK        2.7   800 AM  1/28   SPOTTER REPORT
   KINGSTON               2.0   949 AM  1/28   SPOTTER REPORT
   BELLE MEAD             1.1   430 AM  1/28

...SUSSEX COUNTY...
   LAFAYETTE              4.0  1038 AM  1/28   SPOTTER REPORT
   WANTAGE                3.5  1039 AM  1/28
   SUSSEX                 2.3   700 AM  1/28

...WARREN COUNTY...
   BLAIRSTOWN             3.7  1000 AM  1/28   SPOTTER REPORT
   BELVIDERE              2.7   700 AM  1/28
   STEWARTSVILLE          2.6   816 AM  1/28   SPOTTER REPORT
   HACKETTSTOWN           2.5   702 AM  1/28   SPOTTER REPORT

PENNSYLVANIA

...BERKS COUNTY...
   LONGSWAMP              4.1   613 AM  1/28   1000 FEET ELEV
   BLUE MARSH DAM         4.0   800 AM  1/28
   HAMBURG                4.0   800 AM  1/28
   READING                4.0   529 AM  1/28
   MORGANTOWN             3.2   700 AM  1/28

...BUCKS COUNTY...
   PERKASIE               4.0   700 AM  1/28
   SPRINGTOWN             3.4   700 AM  1/28
   WEST ROCKHILL          3.0   740 AM  1/28
   SELLERSVILLE           2.7   700 AM  1/28
   MORRISVILLE            2.6   608 AM  1/28   SPOTTER REPORT
   FURLONG                2.3  1023 AM  1/28   SPOTTER REPORT
   BENSALEM               2.0   830 AM  1/28   SPOTTER REPORT
   DOYLESTOWN             2.0   800 AM  1/28

...CARBON COUNTY...
   LEHIGHTON              6.0   800 AM  1/28
   ALBRIGHTSVILLE         4.0   800 AM  1/28
   BELTZVILLE DAM         3.8   730 AM  1/28

...CHESTER COUNTY...
   HONEY BROOK            4.3   700 AM  1/28
   PHOENIXVILLE           4.1   519 AM  1/28   SPOTTER REPORT
   WEST CHESTER           4.0   309 AM  1/28   SPOTTER REPORT
   EAST NANTMEAL          3.5   437 AM  1/28
   GLENMOORE              3.5   801 AM  1/28   SPOTTER REPORT
   CHESTERBROOK           3.0   742 AM  1/28   SPOTTER REPORT
   DOWNINGTOWN            3.0   712 AM  1/28   SPOTTER REPORT
   EXTON                  2.4   930 AM  1/28
   WEST CHESTER           2.3   900 AM  1/28
   NEW GARDEN             2.0   330 AM  1/28   SPOTTER REPORT

...DELAWARE COUNTY...
   CLIFTON HEIGHTS        2.4   112 PM  1/28   SPOTTER REPORT
   DREXEL HILL            2.3  1041 AM  1/28   SPOTTER REPORT

...LEHIGH COUNTY...
   SCHNECKSVILLE          4.6   816 AM  1/28   SPOTTER REPORT
   SLATINGTON             4.5   639 AM  1/28   LEHIGH TWP
   ALLENTOWN              3.8   100 PM  1/28   INTL AIRPORT
   BREINIGSVILLE          3.5   652 AM  1/28   SPOTTER REPORT

...MONROE COUNTY...
   TOBYHANNA              3.0   719 AM  1/28   SPOTTER REPORT

...MONTGOMERY COUNTY...
   HATFIELD               4.0   645 AM  1/28
   ELKINS PARK            3.3   842 AM  1/28   SPOTTER REPORT
   PALM                   3.1   800 AM  1/28
   HATBORO                3.0   600 AM  1/28   SPOTTER REPORT
   KING OF PRUSSIA        3.0   618 AM  1/28   SPOTTER REPORT
   ROYERSFORD             3.0   737 AM  1/28   SPOTTER REPORT
   WYNNEWOOD              2.8   611 AM  1/28   SPOTTER REPORT
   GREEN LANE             2.5   825 AM  1/28
   WILLOW GROVE           1.2   110 AM  1/28
   SPRING MOUNT           1.0   100 AM  1/28

...NORTHAMPTON COUNTY...
   BERLINSVILLE           5.0   701 AM  1/28
   BETHLEHEM              4.4  1042 AM  1/28   SPOTTER REPORT
   TATAMY                 3.0   653 AM  1/28   SPOTTER REPORT
   MARTINS CREEK          2.9  1000 AM  1/28   SPOTTER REPORT

...PHILADELPHIA COUNTY...
   PHILADELPHIA           2.7   100 PM  1/28   INTL AIRPORT

***********************STORM TOTAL ICE***********************

LOCATION          STORM TOTAL    TIME/DATE    COMMENTS
                          ICE       OF
                     (INCHES)   MEASUREMENT

DELAWARE

...NEW CASTLE COUNTY...
   BEAR                  0.25   100 PM  1/28
   WILMINGTON            0.25   100 PM  1/28   AIRPORT

NEW JERSEY

...BURLINGTON COUNTY...
   EDGEWATER PARK        0.15   800 AM  1/28
   SOUTHAMPTON           0.15   825 AM  1/28   SPOTTER REPORT
   MOUNT LAUREL          0.10   800 AM  1/28

PENNSYLVANIA

...BERKS COUNTY...
   READING               0.20   800 AM  1/28

...BUCKS COUNTY...
   BENSALEM              0.10   830 AM  1/28   SPOTTER REPORT

...CHESTER COUNTY...
   DOWNINGTOWN           0.20   712 AM  1/28   SPOTTER REPORT

...DELAWARE COUNTY...
   DREXEL HILL           0.15  1041 AM  1/28   SPOTTER REPORT

...MONTGOMERY COUNTY...
   WYNNEWOOD             0.20   611 AM  1/28   SPOTTER REPORT

...NORTHAMPTON COUNTY...
   MARTINS CREEK         0.10  1000 AM  1/28   SPOTTER REPORT

CONNECTICUT

...FAIRFIELD COUNTY...
   DANBURY                4.5   100 PM  1/28   CT DOT
   DARIEN                 4.5   100 PM  1/28   CT DOT
   GREENWICH              4.5   940 AM  1/28   PUBLIC
   DANBURY                4.4   145 PM  1/28   SKYWARN SPOTTER
   NEW CANAAN             4.3   100 PM  1/28   CT DOT
   NORWALK                4.3   915 AM  1/28   PUBLIC
   WESTON                 4.3   900 AM  1/28   SKYWARN SPOTTER
   COS COB                4.1  1030 AM  1/28   PUBLIC
   BRIDGEPORT             4.0  1000 AM  1/28   COOP
   MONROE                 3.5  1030 AM  1/28   SKYWARN SPOTTER
   NEWTOWN                3.5  1030 AM  1/28   PUBLIC
   NORWALK                3.5   920 AM  1/28   SKYWARN SPOTTER

...MIDDLESEX COUNTY...
   WESTBROOK              3.5  1000 AM  1/28   PUBLIC
   OLD SAYBROOK           1.5   100 PM  1/28   CT DOT
   HADDAM                 1.0   100 PM  1/28   CT DOT

...NEW HAVEN COUNTY...
   MILFORD                4.5   100 PM  1/28   CT DOT
   SOUTHBURY              4.0   100 PM  1/28   CT DOT
   WATERBURY              4.0   100 PM  1/28   CT DOT
   BEACON FALLS           3.3   100 PM  1/28   CT DOT
   NEW HAVEN              3.0   100 PM  1/28   CT DOT
   MERIDEN                2.8   100 PM  1/28   CT DOT

...NEW LONDON COUNTY...
   LEDYARD                3.0  1000 AM  1/28   SKYWARN SPOTTER
   LISBON                 2.5   126 PM  1/28   PUBLIC
   STONINGTON             2.5  1000 AM  1/28   SKYWARN SPOTTER
   VOLUNTOWN              2.0  1206 PM  1/28   HAM RADIO
   COLCHESTER             1.8   100 PM  1/28   CT DOT
   GROTON                 1.5   100 PM  1/28   CT DOT
   NORWICH                1.5   100 PM  1/28   CT DOT

NEW JERSEY

...BERGEN COUNTY...
   MAHWAH                 3.8  1000 AM  1/28   SKYWARN SPOTTER
   RIDGEWOOD              3.2   900 AM  1/28   SKYWARN SPOTTER
   BERGENFIELD            3.0  1015 AM  1/28   SKYWARN SPOTTER
   ORADELL RESERVOIR      3.0   845 AM  1/28   SKYWARN SPOTTER
   FORT LEE               2.0   815 AM  1/28   SKYWARN SPOTTER

...ESSEX COUNTY...
   CEDAR GROVE            3.4   800 AM  1/28   PUBLIC
   MONTCLAIR              3.0  1045 AM  1/28   PUBLIC
   WEST ORANGE            2.7  1100 AM  1/28   PUBLIC
   NORTH CALDWELL         2.6   914 AM  1/28   PUBLIC
   NEWARK                 2.4   100 PM  1/28   FAA CONTRACT OBSERVER

...HUDSON COUNTY...
   HARRISON               2.8   830 AM  1/28   SKYWARN SPOTTER
   KEARNY                 2.5  1000 AM  1/28   PUBLIC
   HOBOKEN                2.2   830 AM  1/28   SKYWARN SPOTTER

...PASSAIC COUNTY...
   WEST MILFORD           4.0  1015 AM  1/28   PUBLIC
   POMPTON LAKES DAM      3.6  1000 AM  1/28   PUBLIC
   WANAQUE DAM            3.5   700 AM  1/28   COOP
   RINGWOOD               3.4   945 AM  1/28   SKYWARN SPOTTER
   WAYNE                  3.3   930 AM  1/28   SKYWARN SPOTTER

...UNION COUNTY...
   ROSELLE PARK           4.2   820 AM  1/28   SKYWARN SPOTTER

NEW YORK

...BRONX COUNTY...
   RIVERDALE PARK         3.1   915 AM  1/28   PUBLIC
   PARKCHESTER            2.8   915 AM  1/28   PUBLIC

...KINGS COUNTY...
   BROOKLYN MARINE PARK   2.8   800 AM  1/28   PUBLIC
   SHEEPSHEAD BAY         2.5   800 AM  1/28   SKYWARN SPOTTER

...NASSAU COUNTY...
   WANTAGH                4.0   545 PM  1/28   SKYWARN SPOTTER
   MINEOLA                3.9   830 AM  1/28   SKYWARN SPOTTER
   NORTH MASSAPEQUA       3.6   845 AM  1/28   SKYWARN SPOTTER
   SYOSSET                3.4   930 AM  1/28   SKYWARN SPOTTER
   WEST HEMPSTEAD         3.4   700 AM  1/28   SKYWARN SPOTTER
   BELLEROSE TERRACE      3.3   800 AM  1/28   PUBLIC
   PLAINVIEW              3.0   833 AM  1/28   SKYWARN SPOTTER
   BELLMORE               2.8   900 AM  1/28   SKYWARN SPOTTER
   MERRICK                2.8   900 AM  1/28   SKYWARN SPOTTER
   FLORAL PARK            2.8   830 AM  1/28   SKYWARN SPOTTER
   GLEN COVE              2.5   930 AM  1/28   SKYWARN SPOTTER
   HICKSVILLE             2.3   615 AM  1/28   SKYWARN SPOTTER

...NEW YORK COUNTY...
   NYC/CENTRAL PARK       3.0   400 PM  1/28   CENTRAL PARK ZOO
   HARLEM                 2.8   915 AM  1/28   PUBLIC
   CHINATOWN              2.3  1200 PM  1/28   PUBLIC

...ORANGE COUNTY...
   NEW WINDSOR            5.2  1000 AM  1/28   PUBLIC
   MOUNT HOPE             5.0   310 PM  1/28   PUBLIC
   CORNWALL-ON-HUDSON     4.5   232 PM  1/28   SKYWARN SPOTTER
   HARRIMAN               4.0  1000 AM  1/28   PUBLIC
   NEWBURGH JUNCTION      4.0  1000 AM  1/28   SKYWARN SPOTTER
   TUXEDO PARK            4.0  1030 AM  1/28   PUBLIC
   GOSHEN                 3.8   955 AM  1/28   SKYWARN SPOTTER
   GOSHEN                 3.4  1100 AM  1/28   SKYWARN SPOTTER
   WARWICK                3.0  1230 PM  1/28   SKYWARN SPOTTER

...PUTNAM COUNTY...
   MAHOPAC                4.0  1037 AM  1/28   PUBLIC
   PUTNAM VALLEY          3.8  1205 PM  1/28   PUBLIC

...QUEENS COUNTY...
   FLUSHING MEADOWS       3.3   830 AM  1/28   PUBLIC
   NYC/LA GUARDIA         2.9   100 PM  1/28   FAA CONTRACT OBSERVER
   WOODSIDE               2.5   845 AM  1/28   SKYWARN SPOTTER
   NYC/JFK ARPT           2.3   100 PM  1/28   FAA CONTRACT OBSERVER

...RICHMOND COUNTY...
   GREAT KILLS            4.3  1015 AM  1/28   PUBLIC

...ROCKLAND COUNTY...
   NEW CITY PARK          3.4  1000 AM  1/28   SKYWARN SPOTTER
   NYACK                  3.4   930 AM  1/28   PUBLIC

...SUFFOLK COUNTY...
   ORIENT POINT           4.0  1000 AM  1/28   PUBLIC
   SOUTH SETAUKET         3.8   900 AM  1/28   PUBLIC
   UPTON                  3.6   700 PM  1/28   NWS FCST OFFICE
   MIDDLE ISLAND STATE    3.6   830 AM  1/28   PUBLIC
   SAYVILLE               3.5   730 AM  1/28   NWS EMPLOYEE
   HAUPPAUGE              3.5   855 AM  1/28   PUBLIC
   ISLIP                  3.3   445 PM  1/28   SKYWARN SPOTTER
   MOUNT SINAI            3.3   900 AM  1/28   PUBLIC
   PATCHOGUE              3.3   845 AM  1/28   NWS EMPLOYEE
   RIVERHEAD              3.3   841 AM  1/28   PUBLIC
   SOUTHAMPTON            3.3   852 AM  1/28   PUBLIC
   RONKONKOMA             3.2   820 AM  1/28   NWS EMPLOYEE
   ISLIP                  3.1   100 PM  1/28   FAA CONTRACT OBSERVER
   LINDENHURST            3.1   800 AM  1/28   SKYWARN SPOTTER
   SMITHTOWN              3.1   900 AM  1/28   SKYWARN SPOTTER
   CUTCHOGUE STATION      3.0  1053 AM  1/28   SKYWARN SPOTTER
   MATTITUCK PARK         3.0  1020 AM  1/28   SKYWARN SPOTTER
   HAMPTON BAYS           1.5   545 AM  1/28   NWS EMPLOYEE

...WESTCHESTER COUNTY...
   YONKERS                6.1   300 PM  1/28   PUBLIC
   HASTINGS-ON-HUDSON     6.1   215 PM  1/28   PUBLIC
   SCARSDALE              5.2  1050 AM  1/28   PUBLIC
   ARDSLEY                4.5   915 AM  1/28   PUBLIC
   ARMONK                 4.5  1100 AM  1/28   PUBLIC
   CHAPPAQUA              4.5   930 AM  1/28   PUBLIC
   EAST WHITE PLAINS      4.1   910 AM  1/28   SKYWARN SPOTTER
   NEW CASTLE             2.9   830 AM  1/28   PUBLIC

***********************STORM TOTAL ICE***********************

LOCATION          STORM TOTAL    TIME/DATE    COMMENTS
                          ICE       OF
                     (INCHES)   MEASUREMENT

CONNECTICUT

...FAIRFIELD COUNTY...
   DANBURY               0.10   145 PM  1/28   SKYWARN SPOTTER
   MONROE                0.10   315 PM  1/28   SKYWARN SPOTTER

...NEW HAVEN...
   NAUGATUCK             0.20   630 PM  1/28   SKYWARN SPOTTER

NEW JERSEY

...BERGEN COUNTY...
   FORT LEE              0.20   955 AM  1/28   SKYWARN SPOTTER
   RIDGEWOOD             0.10  1000 AM  1/28   SKYWARN SPOTTER

...PASSAIC COUNTY...
   POMPTON LAKES DAM     0.10  1000 AM  1/28   PUBLIC

NEW YORK

...ORANGE COUNTY...
   MOUNT HOPE            0.15   310 PM  1/28   PUBLIC

NEW YORK

...BROOME COUNTY...
   COLESVILLE             9.0   934 PM  1/28
   CHENANGO FORKS         8.5   940 PM  1/28   ELEVATED STATION
   SANFORD                6.0   836 PM  1/28
   MAINE                  5.6   944 PM  1/28
   WHITNEY_POINT_2S       5.0   836 PM  1/28
   BINGHAMTON_S           4.1   800 PM  1/28

...CAYUGA COUNTY...
   FAIR HAVEN             8.0   507 PM  1/28
   CAYUGA                 6.5   645 PM  1/28

...CHEMUNG COUNTY...
   BIGFLATS               4.0   800 PM  1/28

...CHENANGO COUNTY...
   BAINBRIDGE             8.0   940 PM  1/28
   SMYRNA                 7.3   939 PM  1/28
   PRESTON                6.0   940 PM  1/28
   GUILFORD               5.0   938 PM  1/28
   SOUTH NEW BERLIN       4.3   939 PM  1/28
   NORWICH                3.5   939 PM  1/28

...CORTLAND COUNTY...
   HARFORD                6.5   931 PM  1/28
   MARATHON               6.0   931 PM  1/28
   CORTLAND               5.5   934 PM  1/28
   PREBLE                 5.0   930 PM  1/28
   HOMER                  4.0   932 PM  1/28

...DELAWARE COUNTY...
   MARGARETVILLE          5.0   516 PM  1/28

...MADISON COUNTY...
   LAKEPORT               7.0   954 PM  1/28

...ONEIDA COUNTY...
   ROME                  10.0   950 PM  1/28
   HOLLAND PATENT         9.5   953 PM  1/28
   STOCKWELL              8.0   953 PM  1/28
   POINT ROCK             6.5   955 PM  1/28
   WHITESBORO             6.5   956 PM  1/28
   CAMDEN                 6.0   953 PM  1/28
   VERONA                 6.0   954 PM  1/28
   WEST LEE               6.0   954 PM  1/28
   MARCY                  5.0   953 PM  1/28
   WESTMORELAND           4.0   954 PM  1/28

...ONONDAGA COUNTY...
   CICERO                 8.0   952 PM  1/28
   SYRACUSE               7.4   700 PM  1/28
   LAFAYETTE              6.0   934 PM  1/28
   LIVERPOOL              6.0   952 PM  1/28

...OTSEGO COUNTY...
   WORCESTER              5.0   432 PM  1/28
   EAST WORCESTER         3.0   559 PM  1/28

...STEUBEN COUNTY...
   CORNING                5.5   941 PM  1/28
   HORNBY                 5.5   944 PM  1/28
   HORNELL                4.8   942 PM  1/28
   AVOCA                  4.5   943 PM  1/28
   CAMPBELL               4.5   941 PM  1/28
   CANISTEO               4.0   943 PM  1/28
   CATON                  3.5   941 PM  1/28

...SULLIVAN COUNTY...
   NEVERSINK              6.0   955 PM  1/28

...TOMPKINS COUNTY...
   LANSING                5.0   937 PM  1/28
   TRUMANSBURG            5.0   937 PM  1/28
   ETNA                   4.4   850 PM  1/28
   ENFIELD                4.0   936 PM  1/28
   ETNA                   3.5   934 PM  1/28
   DANBY                  3.0   938 PM  1/28
   ITHACA                 2.0   938 PM  1/28

...YATES COUNTY...
   PENN YAN               8.5   800 PM  1/28
   PENN_YAN               8.0   522 PM  1/28

PENNSYLVANIA

...LACKAWANNA COUNTY...
   JESSUP                 3.5   853 PM  1/28
   SCOTT                  1.5   449 PM  1/28

...PIKE COUNTY...
   MILFORD                4.0   949 PM  1/28

CONNECTICUT

...LITCHFIELD COUNTY...
   SHARON                 5.0   533 PM  1/28 WXNET 6
   THOMASTON              4.5   500 PM  1/28 CT DOT
   WINCHESTER             3.8   500 PM  1/28 CT DOT
   LITCHFIELD             3.0   500 PM  1/28 CT DOT
   NORTH CANAAN           3.0   500 PM  1/28 CT DOT

MASSACHUSETTS

...BERKSHIRE COUNTY...
   BECKET                 8.0   555 PM  1/28 WTEN
   SAVOY                  6.8   614 PM  1/28 WXNET 6
   LANESBOROUGH           5.5   500 PM  1/28 WXNET 6
   ADAMS                  5.0   558 PM  1/28 WTEN
   WINDSOR                5.0   603 PM  1/28 WTEN
   PITTSFIELD             4.0   557 PM  1/28 WTEN

NEW YORK

...ALBANY COUNTY...
   RENSSELAERVILLE        7.5   559 PM  1/28 WTEN
   ALBANY                 5.9   930 PM  1/28 NWS CESTM
   ALBANY                 5.6  1020 PM  1/28 NWS EMPLOYEE
   COHOES                 5.5   549 PM  1/28 WXNET 6
   WESTERLO               5.5   601 PM  1/28 WTEN
   COLONIE                5.3  1022 PM  1/28 WXNET 6
   LATHAM                 5.0   524 PM  1/28 WXNET 6
   MEDUSA                 5.0   511 PM  1/28 WXNET 6
   SOUTH BERNE            5.0   504 PM  1/28 WXNET 6
   DELMAR                 4.0   537 PM  1/28 WXNET 6

...COLUMBIA COUNTY...
   GERMANTOWN             7.0   600 PM  1/28 WTEN
   HUDSON                 7.0   554 PM  1/28 WTEN
   CLAVERACK              6.0   554 PM  1/28 WTEN
   CHATHAM CENTER         5.0   628 PM  1/28 WXNET 6
   GHENT                  5.0   524 PM  1/28 WXNET 6
   LIVINGSTON             4.5   525 PM  1/28 WXNET 6
   TAGHKANIC              4.1   527 PM  1/28 WXNET 6

...FULTON COUNTY...
   NORTHVILLE             9.0   527 PM  1/28 WXNET 6
   CAROGA LAKE            8.0   600 PM  1/28 WTEN
   JOHNSTOWN              8.0   459 PM  1/28 WXNET 6
   BROADALBIN             7.0   831 PM  1/28 WXNET 6
   FISHHOUSE              6.5   455 PM  1/28 WXNET 6

...GREENE COUNTY...
   DURHAM                 6.0   458 PM  1/28 WXNET 6
   ELKA PARK              6.0   606 PM  1/28 WXNET 6
   WINDHAM                6.0   556 PM  1/28 WTEN
   CATSKILL               5.0   454 PM  1/28 WXNET 6
   CATSKILL               5.0  1033 PM  1/28 WXNET 6

...HAMILTON COUNTY...
   BENSON                11.0   911 PM  1/28 TRAINED SPOTTER
   WELLS                 10.0   507 PM  1/28 TRAINED SPOTTER
   SPECULATOR             9.5   941 PM  1/28 WXNET 6
   INDIAN LAKE            9.0   600 PM  1/28 WTEN
   INDIAN LAKE            8.0   524 PM  1/28 WXNET 6
   PISECO                 8.0   511 PM  1/28 WKTV
   BLUE MOUNTAIN LAKE     7.8   642 PM  1/28 WXNET 6

...HERKIMER COUNTY...
   FAIRFIELD             11.0  1015 PM  1/28 TRAINED SPOTTER
   POLAND                10.0   954 PM  1/28 TRAINED SPOTTER
   OHIO                   6.0   658 PM  1/28 TRAINED SPOTTER
   OLD FORGE              6.0   711 PM  1/28 TRAINED SPOTTER
   DOLGEVILLE             5.0   520 PM  1/28 TRAINED SPOTTER

...MONTGOMERY COUNTY...
   HESSVILLE              6.0   609 PM  1/28 WXNET 6
   AMSTERDAM              5.5   544 PM  1/28 WXNET 6
   AMSTERDAM              5.0   502 PM  1/28 WXNET 6
   AMSTERDAM              5.0   559 PM  1/28 WTEN
   FONDA                  4.8   501 PM  1/28 WXNET 6

...RENSSELAER COUNTY...
   SCHAGHTICOKE           6.0  1028 PM  1/28 WXNET 6
   BRUNSWICK              5.1   500 PM  1/28 NWS EMPLOYEE
   POESTENKILL            5.0   600 PM  1/28 WXNET 6
   STEPHENTOWN            4.5   549 PM  1/28 WXNET 6

...SARATOGA COUNTY...
   WILTON                 8.5   748 PM  1/28 TRAINED SPOTTER
   SARATOGA SPRINGS       7.3  1040 PM  1/28 WXNET 6
   CORINTH                7.0   555 PM  1/28 WTEN
   SARATOGA SPRINGS       7.0   500 PM  1/28 NWS EMPLOYEE
   CORINTH                6.5   522 PM  1/28 WXNET 6
   GANSEVOORT             6.5   505 PM  1/28 WXNET 6
   SARATOGA SPRINGS       6.3   556 PM  1/28 TRAINED SPOTTER
   WILTON                 6.3   529 PM  1/28 WXNET 6
   CLIFTON PARK           6.1  1017 PM  1/28 NWS EMPLOYEE 0.4 SLEET
   CHARLTON               6.0  1044 PM  1/28 WXNET 6
   GREENFIELD             6.0   558 PM  1/28 WTEN

...SCHENECTADY COUNTY...
   SCHENECTADY            6.5   615 PM  1/28 WXNET 6
   SCHENECTADY            6.3   910 PM  1/28 NWS EMPLOYEE
   SCOTIA                 6.0   624 PM  1/28 WXNET 6

...SCHOHARIE COUNTY...
   ESPERANCE              6.0   528 PM  1/28 WXNET 6
   RICHMONDVILLE          5.0  1030 PM  1/28 WXNET 6
   JEFFERSON              4.0   612 PM  1/28 WXNET 6
   SCHOHARIE              4.0   553 PM  1/28 WTEN
   SUMMIT                 4.0   608 PM  1/28 WXNET 6
   CHARLOTTEVILLE         3.8   609 PM  1/28 WXNET 6
   GILBOA                 3.3  1023 PM  1/28 WXNET 6

...ULSTER COUNTY...
   PHOENICIA              7.2   524 PM  1/28 WXNET 6
   WOODSTOCK              7.0   536 PM  1/28 TRAINED SPOTTER
   KINGSTON               6.0   557 PM  1/28 WTEN
   ROSENDALE              6.0   534 PM  1/28 WTEN
   WHITEPORT              6.0   456 PM  1/28 WXNET 6
   KINGSTON               5.5   604 PM  1/28 WXNET 6
   MILTON                 5.0   512 PM  1/28 TRAINED SPOTTER
   ESOPUS                 3.0   930 PM  1/28 WXNET 6

...WARREN COUNTY...
   WARRENSBURG            9.0  1030 PM  1/28 TRAINED SPOTTER
   LAKE LUZERNE           4.2   549 PM  1/28 WXNET 6

...WASHINGTON COUNTY...
   COSSAYUNA              8.3  1031 PM  1/28 WXNET 6
   KINGSBURY              8.0   834 PM  1/28 WXNET 6
   FORT EDWARD            7.0   617 PM  1/28 WXNET 6
   NORTH HEBRON           6.0   500 PM  1/28 COOP
   WHITEHALL              5.3   521 PM  1/28 WXNET 6
   GRANVILLE              4.5   455 PM  1/28 WXNET 6

VERMONT

...BENNINGTON COUNTY...
   DORSET                11.0   557 PM  1/28 WTEN
   LANDGROVE             10.0   631 PM  1/28 WXNET 6
   WOODFORD               9.5   547 PM  1/28 WXNET 6
   BENNINGTON             3.0   556 PM  1/28 WTEN

...WINDHAM COUNTY...
   TOWNSHEND             11.3   738 PM  1/28 TRAINED SPOTTER
   WEST DUMMERSTON        8.5  1040 PM  1/28 TRAINED SPOTTER
   BRATTLEBORO            7.5   553 PM  1/28 WTEN

***********************STORM TOTAL ICE***********************

LOCATION          STORM TOTAL    TIME/DATE    COMMENTS
                          ICE       OF
                     (INCHES)   MEASUREMENT

NEW YORK

...ALBANY COUNTY...
   ALBANY                0.20   930 PM  1/28 NWS CESTM
   ALBANY                0.10  1020 PM  1/28 NWS EMPLOYEE
   LATHAM                0.10   533 PM  1/28 WXNET 6

...COLUMBIA COUNTY...
   LIVINGSTON            0.30   525 PM  1/28 WXNET 6

...RENSSELAER COUNTY...
   BRUNSWICK             0.10   500 PM  1/28 NWS EMPLOYEE
   POESTENKILL           0.10   601 PM  1/28 WXNET 6
   SCHAGHTICOKE          0.10   507 PM  1/28 WXNET 6

...SARATOGA COUNTY...
   CLIFTON PARK          0.10  1017 PM  1/28 NWS EMPLOYEE
   SARATOGA SPRINGS      0.10   556 PM  1/28 TRAINED SPOTTER

...SCHENECTADY COUNTY...
   SCHENECTADY           0.13   910 PM  1/28 NWS EMPLOYEE

...SCHOHARIE COUNTY...
   RICHMONDVILLE         0.12   506 PM  1/28 WXNET 6

...ULSTER COUNTY...
   WOODSTOCK             0.25   536 PM  1/28 TRAINED SPOTTER

...WASHINGTON COUNTY...
   COSSAYUNA             0.12   508 PM  1/28 WXNET 6

$$

7:30 AM

You know, I would love to forecast an all snow event at some point.  Just look at the QPF, multiply by 10 or 12, then here’s the snow map.  Oh no, not this winter.  haha

Model guidance is still all over the place on exactly how this storm will play out for the forecast area, knowing that I have gone to a model guidance that has worked out pretty well this season for the immediate forecast area, and that would be SREF mean guidance.  You know me though, I don’t just use model guidance.  So let me discuss my thoughts and then we’ll get to the threat and snow maps.  

We’ve seen this type of storm before this season and learned some tough lessons.  The first signal I’m seeing in the guidance is a ridge signature over the forecast area as the high pressure system departs.  The actual storm track has not changed much in the past 48 hours.  The surface low is still moving from the Mississippi Valley to Delaware and east of New Jersey, while the high moves from the Great Lakes to east of Maine by Wednesday morning.  In storms similar to this one, through the season (storm track and 850 MB low track) the cold air tends to hang on more than forecasted over the New York City metro and locations just north of Philadelphia.  The best guidance to pick this situation up through the winter thus far has been the SREF mean, which by the way was under the influence of a warm Atlantic Ocean along the coast.  

The other detail I see sneaking up is the speed of the main low and the main period of precipitation.  At 700 MB, there is a strong push of DAA from southwest to northeast on Wednesday morning, suggesting that the precipitation with this storm is going to move very quickly.  How quickly I’m not sure, and one of the busts outcomes I am keeping an eye on is that the QPF amounts underperform.  

So here’s the general idea of the forecast.  

This morning we are already seeing some weak isentropic lifting moving into the forecast area.  From this morning on through Tuesday, the forecast area will have periods of light snow and snow showers move through the forecast area.  Accumulations are expected to be light through Tuesday morning as the forcing is not very organized at this point.  

On Tuesday afternoon, the main disturbance will move towards the forecast area.  Snow will increase in coverage and intensity throughout the forecast area into Tuesday evening.  The Tuesday evening rush hour can be expected to be rather snowy for the New York City and Philadelphia metro.  

On Tuesday night, the surface low will track from southern Kentucky to northern Virginia.  The feature that sticks out to me on the model guidance is the ridge that develops over eastern Pennsylvania.  I think this is a signal that the cold air is going to hang tough over the forecast area through much of this event.  The heaviest precipitation will move through the forecast area between 11 PM Tuesday and 5 AM Wednesday as this is when the best MLF at 850 MB and 700 MB moves through the forecast area.  This also happens to be the period when the strongest WAA will begin.  That’s not a coincidence as the strong WAA will increase the thermal gradient at 850 MB.  I expect a band of heavy precipitation to develop throughout the forecast area early Wednesday morning from Philadelphia through New York City in this time period.  Now here is where this forecast becomes tricky.  

The SREF means and GFS data suggests that New York City remains below freezing throughout the entire atmosphere up until 12Z Wednesday morning or between 6 AM and 7AM Wednesday morning.  Philadelphia and central New Jersey is about the same story up until around 5 to 6 AM.  So up until 5 AM on Wednesday, the majority of model guidance suggest that the forecast area will be below freezing at all levels.  So the question falls to how much mixing will occur over the forecast area and at what time?  The speed of the precipitation is an issue because the DAA may dominant when temperatures are at their warmest, we’ve seen that before!  

So I think there is room either way in this storm for significant ice and snow.  So here come the maps!

Blue:  I expect all snow in these locations as the atmosphere is not expected to warm above freezing at any time through the precipitation event.

Pink:  Snow will fall for a good portion of the precipitation event before mixing with and changing over to sleet, freezing rain, and ending as rain in some locations.

Green:  Snow to a period of sleet and rain and then rain on Wednesday morning.  

This is the threat map of the type of precipitation I am expecting.  Overall, I like where I stand and I don’t expect much change as far as the type of precipitation that will fall over the forecast area.  Okay, I know.  You want to know how much.  Well let’s get into that.

Okay, to the left is the snow map I have prepared.  As always, the track of the actual low pressure system will have to be watched along with the progression of the rain/ice/snow line, thus I expect to be doing a lot of NOW-Casting with this event on the fly.  

Blue:  This area covers extreme northern Pennsylvania through the central Hudson Valley.  The best forcing and moisture will be located to the south, however all snow can be expected.  I expect 4 to 8 inches of snow in this location.  

Purple:  This area covers much of northeastern Pennsylvania, south/central Hudson Valley, and much of Connecticut.  I expect mostly snow to fall in this location with periods of sleet possible between heavy snow bands.  Accumulations of 8 to 12 inches are expected in this location.  

Violent:  This area covers locations just north of Philadelphia, north-central New Jersey, and much of the immediate New York City Metro.  Snowfall accumulations will be determined by rate of change over on early Wednesday morning.  Snowfall accumulations of 4 to 8 inches are expected with ice accumulations (sleet and freezing rain) of 0.10″ to 0.25″.  I do not expect a change over to rain in these locations.  

Pink:  Similar forecast but quicker change over period to ice.  Snowfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches are expected with higher amounts to the north and lower amounts to the south.  Ice accumulations of 0.10″ to 0.25″ are expected as well before ending as a brief period of rain.

Light Blue:  Snow is expected to change over to rain quicker in these locations.  Snowfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches are expected before mixing over to rain by early Wednesday morning.  A period of ice can produce up to 0.10″ of accumulation.  

Bust Scenarios: 

As I was stating above there are some features on the guidance that are been showing up that we’ve seen this winter.  The first being the strong DAA signature showing up at 700 MB on Wednesday morning, which may suggest a quick end to the precipitation and possibly less precipitation overall.  For now, most guidance is producing around 1 inch of liquid precipitation, which is supported by the strong forcing seen at 700 MB and 850 MB between 06Z and 12Z Wednesday.  

Another signature is that slight yet important ridge signature through the forecast area on Wednesday morning.  This suggests that while temperatures warm as expected at 850 MB, the rate of warming may be slower at 950 MB to the surface for Philadelphia through central New Jersey and into the New York City metro.  There is a potential for a significant ice storm out of the period of Wednesday morning with heavy sleet and/or freezing rain falling over these locations on early Wednesday morning.  

While in storm mode, I will be focusing on this storm and not doing any updates for the medium range.  Normal forecasting will return once the storm moves away from the forecast area.

4:09 PM

Yesterday morning, I posted a forecast and discussion about my concerns that at least light to possibly moderate snow will build into coastal New Jersey through Connecticut this evening with lighter snow’s to the north and west.  I admit I did back off on that idea after seeing just about every model I could look at say no way, big miss for the region.

Well, clearly the idea of a miss is falling apart right in front of our eyes as virga is build and expanding, snow is starting fall lightly over eastern Pennsylvania, temperatures are falling due to evaporational cooling. 

For now, I am back to where I started this morning with a general coasting to 2 inches over much of the region this evening, with the potentail for 1 to 3 inches along the immediate coast, or basically central New Jersey through the New York City metro. 

That’s where I stand right now.  There is potential for a big bust here.  I am growing concerned of hints of a pivot of the heavier precipitation over North Carolina and building precipitation over central Virginia now.  The trough is hinting at a negative tilt on the water vapor and pressures are really starting to fall east of the Carolinas.  All of these trends do NOT suggest a miss, not one bit.  However, again, I am trying not to jump the gun here.  As I think I am the only meteorologist yesterday who was hinting at this and certainly the only one throwing up red flags now. 

I will issue an observations post immediately for all of you to share you thoughts.

2:50 PM

If you are wondering why I am not shooting out rapid updates, it is because I am trying to be very careful in what I am seeing this afternoon.

Personally, the issue at hand is I don’t want to go off screaming snow storm developing and then it does.  That would kill my credibility of my skills and this site.  On the other hand, virga is developing all over the forecast area, when it shouldn’t.  The satellite images are showing rising air throughout the coastal plain from the mouth of the Hudson Valley down to the Carolina’s.  It is clear that a disturbance is starting to support cyclogenesis off the southern Mid Atlantic and Southeast coast.  It is also clear that the primary low over the Great Lakes is weakening and thus so is the warm air advection over the region.  This precipiation and virga is forming due to the interaction of PVA and the developing theramal gradient from the surface to 700 MB over the East coast. 

As far as temperature trends, notice that temperatures have stopped rising over southern New Jersey.  Virga over these locations are blunting the warm air advection.  In fact, some locastions over east-central PA are observing temperatures falling AHEAD of the cold front. 

So here is the question that is running in my head.  If virga is developing along the coastal plain and there seems to be a developing thermal gradient setting up along the coast, then would this mean that precipitation is more likely along the coast.  My instincts say yes, but I don’t want to jump the gun yet.  If that precipitation over eastern North Carlina starts to back build and move into northeastern Virgina and the DELMARVA Peninsula, then we are looking a potentially HUGE bust in guidance.  I’m not ready to make that announcement yet, but if the trends continue, I will have to. 

In the meantime, the virga developing over the forecast area will continue to cool temperatures this afternoon and eventually snow and rain depending on locastion will fall.  At this point, the precipitation is going to be light, so don’t expect a quick and significant accumulation.  However, like I said, the trends are troubling for those that thought the forecast area would see nothing but partly cloudy skies and generally dry conditions.