Tag Archive for 'caa' at NY NJ PA Weather Forecasts

Warm Weekend Ahead, Enjoy It While You Can

December 26th, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

7:59 AM
The weather will be no excuse this weekend on whether retail sales will be up or down, that’s for sure! The upper level pattern at this current time has the storm track well north and west of the forecast area. The negative NAO is still developing and the current block is not in place [...]

Tags: Albany, Allentown, area, Atlantic City, atmosphere, Belmar, blocking, Bport, caa, clouds, cloudy skies, cold, cold front, Connecticut, continuation, crash, current time, degree drop, dominance, eastern greenland, er, evening hours, evenings, excelerate, excuse, forecast, forecast area, forecaster, forecasters, Freehold, front, greenland, Hartford, high, interaction, Islip, late evening, Long Island, low, lows, nao, New Jersey, New York, New York City, Newark, normal, normal temperatures, north, norther, northwester, Pennsylvania, periods, Philadelphia, Poughkeepsie, precipitation, Reading, retail sales, Ridge, risk, s, scattered showers, Scranton, showers, Storm, storm track, storms, sunday afternoon, sunday evening, Sussex, systems, temperature, temperatures, waa, warm, warm atmosphere, warm sector, weather, west, White Plains, Wild Wood, wills. Technical Discussions Add a comment

This Is Why The Primary Low Is So Important

December 21st, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

6:46 AM
Good Morning Everyone.
First of all, great job everyone with the observations! Now I know what you all are seeing and it is probably is driving you nuts as warm air is surging into southern and central New Jersey and into eastern/central Long Island.
Well, this is why the position of the primary low is so [...]

Tags: Albany, Allentown, area, Atlantic, Atlantic City, atlantic ocean temperatures, Belmar, belmar new jersey, Bridgeport, caa, coast, Connecticut, continuation, degree gradient, east, forecast, forecast area, forecaster, forecasters, Freehold, Hartford, high, Islip, job, Long Island, low, lows, Michigan, New Jersey, New York, New York City, Newark, north, North Carolina, nuts, observation, observations, Ocean, Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Poughkeepsie, precipitation, Reading, Scranton, south, Southeast, span, Sussex, temperature, temperatures, thermal gradient, Trenton, trenton new jersey, waa, warm, White Plains, Wild Wood, wills. Technical Discussions Add a comment

1 AM Thoughts

December 21st, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

1:22 AM
The observations are in for 1 AM and the surface temperatures are 2 to 7 degrees colder than forecasted, especially over southern New Jersey where surface temperatures and dew points are in the mid to upper 20’s when the forecast had this region at or above freezing (32 to 35 degrees). However, the position [...]

Tags: accumulation, Add new tag, Albany, Allentown, area, Atlantic City, Belmar, Bridgeport, caa, coast, Connecticut, continuation, dew points, Disturbance, forecast, forecast area, forecast guidance, forecaster, forecasters, Freehold, guidance, Hartford, high, ice, Islip, jersey coast, Long Island, low, low pressure system, lows, mid, mid level, moderation, New Jersey, New York, New York City, Newark, north, North Carolina, northerly wind, northern suburbs, observation, observations, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Poughkeepsie, precipitation, Reading, risk, Scranton, snow, snowfall, suburbs of philadelphia, surface temperatures, Sussex, systems, temperature, temperatures, valleys, water vapor, White Plains, Wild Wood, wind component. Technical Discussions Add a comment

Thoughts To This Point

December 21st, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

11:40 PM
One of the observations I am keeping an eye on is the WAA push of the primary low over the Ohio Valley. I have to admit, I’m surprised how weak the WAA has been as the 850 MB freezing line has barely moved north over the Mid Atlantic as the low pressure system has [...]

Tags: Albany, Allentown, area, Atlantic, Atlantic City, atmosphere, Belmar, Bridgeport, caa, coast, cold, cold solution, Connecticut, east, evenings, ey, Fall, forecast, forecast area, forecaster, forecasters, Freehold, Hartford, high, Islip, Long Island, low, low pressure system, lows, mid, Mid Atlantic, model solution, models, Monmouth, Monmouth County, New Jers Newark, New York, New York City, north, Northeast, observation, observations, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, plains, Poughkeepsie, Rain, rain event, Reading, Scranton, signs, Storm, storms, surprise, Sussex, systems, temperature, temperatures, thermal gradient, valleys, vector analysis, waa, warning sign, White Plains, Wild Wood, wind vector. Technical Discussions Add a comment

Power Of The Cad, May The Force Be With You

December 19th, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

6:17 AM
Have you noticed your wind direction? Winds throughout the forecast area ahead of this storm is clearly from the north, which is continuing to support CAA over the forecast area and supporting the magnitude of cold air as well. Here’s a great example of what the right position of a high pressure system can [...]

Tags: Albany, Allentown, area, Atlantic City, Belmar, Bridgeport, caa, cad, coastal plain, cold, cold air, Connecticut, continuation, forecast, forecast area, forecaster, forecasters, Freehold, Hartford, high, high pressure system, Islip, Long Island, magnitude, New Jersey, New York, New York City, Newark, north, Northeast, Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, plains, Poughkeepsie, radar, Reading, right position, Scranton, south, south central pennsylvania, Storm, storms, Sussex, systems, White Plains, Wild Wood, wind direction. Technical Discussions 3 Comments

Difficult Forecast With Huge Bust Potential And Significant Ice And Snow Amounts

December 19th, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

12:21 AM
You know, model guidance is suppose to get better and into strong agreement less than 24 hours away from an event. Unfortuantly for the forecast area and this forecaster, that was not the case tonight as the GFS went extreme warm and the NAM/WRF went colder.
So with no trust what so ever in [...]

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00Z NAM Thoughts This Evening

December 16th, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

10:16 PM
Looking past tonight, the forecast period for Friday is beginning to enter the range of the NAM/WRF data. Now, I first want to say that it is NEVER a good idea with going with a verbatum forecast from the NAM past 66 hours. However, I want to high light some of the features in [...]

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Sneaky Arctic Air And The Storm Track For Next Week

December 14th, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

11:12 AM
Right off the bat, I want to say I don’t have a lot of confidence in the medium and extended forecast for this forecast area and much of the Mid Atlantic. There is a rule I learned long ago from a great professor I had in college, beware of temperature guidance and the ability [...]

Tags: 12z gfs, Albany, Allentown, arctic air masses, area, Atlantic, Atlantic City, Belmar, Bridgeport, caa, cad, cad development, coast, cold, cold air, cold front, Connecticut, continuation, continuous threat, dense air, disagreement, forecast, forecast area, forecaster, Freehold, front, gfs, guidance, Hartford, high, ice, interior locations, Islip, Long Island, low, lows, mid, Model Guidance, models, nao, New Jersey, New York, New York City, Newark, north, opinions, Pennsylvania, period 1, periods, Philadelphia, Poughkeepsie, precipitation, Rain, rain event, Rainfall, Reading, right off the bat, Scranton, sleet, snow, snow sleet, south, Storm, storm track, storms, surface front, Sussex, temperature, temperatures, uneasy state, warm, White Plains, Wild Wood, wills. Technical Discussions Add a comment

Major Cold Front On The Way

December 14th, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

10:30 AM
The main story over the next 3 days is going to be the wild temperature swings we will experience. Spring will visit the forecast area tonight and Monday followed by a hard slap of reality on Tuesday. So let’s dive back into the forecast!
Today, the high pressure system is slowly leaving the forecast area. [...]

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Warm Or Cold, It’s All Up To The EPO

December 13th, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

9:00 AM
You got to love the model guidance this year. Rain, snow, rain, snow. Well, let’s through in some ice and then some wild long range pattern forecasts.
Time to get back to the basics, and the best way to do that is to look at the overall pattern that has been and continues to [...]

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