Caa | NY NJ PA Weather Forecasts

Major Changes And The Reasons Behind Them

February 28th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

8:47 AM
An extremely rare and extremely difficult forecast is evolving for the forecast area this morning. In previous posts, I stated my doubts of a heavy snowfall as a perfect track with perfect timing was going to be needed to produce a significant snowfall along the coast. The model guidance and more importantly, the atmosphere [...]

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What Can Lead To A Potential Snow Storm On Sunday Night?

February 27th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

9:01 PM
There’s a lot of talk about the potential for a snow storm on Sunday night into Monday. As many of you know, I have not been all that impressed with the potential for a snow storm from this set up. My main objection to the idea of a significant snow storm has been the [...]

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Warm Weather Coming To An End, But Not Without Some Heavy Rain

February 11th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

6:57 AM
The early spring like weather is going to be coming to an end in the next 48 hours, so I would enjoy the warm temperatures as much as possible today before winter returns.
The cold front is still well west of the forecast area, which means the region is in the warm sector of [...]

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Trends I’m Keeping An Eye On

January 28th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

9:04 AM
While the forecast is certainly going as planned, even the thoughts about the mid level forcing have worked out, I am noticing an interesting trend at 850 MB that bares watch. Note over western Pennsylvania that the progression of the 850 MB freezing line has stalled from moving north and then strong cold air [...]

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Models Coming Into Agreement For Significant Snow For Forecast Area

January 25th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

10:09 AM
Almost all the model guidance is beginning to come into agreement in the overall pattern idea, but there are still difference on exactly how the disturbances develop within the pattern.
Currently I don’t have much of a change in the forecast. My approach as far as model guidance is to take a combination of the [...]

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Arctic Cold Followed By Major Winter Storm On Sunday

January 14th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

7:45 AM
I wanted to make a post about the ideas I have on the potential storm on Sunday, however I saw some data on the model guidance coming in at 00Z and thought better to do some research first before posting. So off I went diving into the KU book for some additional guidance and [...]

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Warm Weekend Ahead, Enjoy It While You Can

December 26th, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

7:59 AM
The weather will be no excuse this weekend on whether retail sales will be up or down, that’s for sure! The upper level pattern at this current time has the storm track well north and west of the forecast area. The negative NAO is still developing and the current block is not in place [...]

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This Is Why The Primary Low Is So Important

December 21st, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

6:46 AM
Good Morning Everyone.
First of all, great job everyone with the observations! Now I know what you all are seeing and it is probably is driving you nuts as warm air is surging into southern and central New Jersey and into eastern/central Long Island.
Well, this is why the position of the primary low is so [...]

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1 AM Thoughts

December 21st, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

1:22 AM
The observations are in for 1 AM and the surface temperatures are 2 to 7 degrees colder than forecasted, especially over southern New Jersey where surface temperatures and dew points are in the mid to upper 20’s when the forecast had this region at or above freezing (32 to 35 degrees). However, the position [...]

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Thoughts To This Point

December 21st, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

11:40 PM
One of the observations I am keeping an eye on is the WAA push of the primary low over the Ohio Valley. I have to admit, I’m surprised how weak the WAA has been as the 850 MB freezing line has barely moved north over the Mid Atlantic as the low pressure system has [...]

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