Cad | NY NJ PA Weather Forecasts

Tag Archive for 'cad'

Evening Thoughts: The risk of a stronger, more defined coastal low

December 23rd, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

11:00 PM
In this morning’s post I discussed the threat of a stronger coastal low due to a more pronounced coastal front. The guidance from 12Z and 18Z took a troubling turn in suggesting just that scenario. One of which, that even suggest that the coastal low becomes the primary low SOUTH of the northern Mid [...]

Tags: 00z nam, Albany, Allentown, Atlantic City, atlantic city weather, atlantic ocean, Belmar, Bridgeport, cad, cape may nj weather, Citi Field, coastal front, coastal waters, cold front, confluence, Connecticut, convergence, craigles nyc, current weather in new york, forecast area, Freehold, friday afternoon, friday evening, Great Lakes, guidance, Gulf of Mexico, hail, Hartford, heavy rain, Islip, jackson nj weather, jet streak, lightning, long beach island nj weather, Long Island, Long Island Sound, Long Island weather, manhattan weather, marine weather nj, Mets, Mid Atlantic, Mid Atlantic weather, Mid West, moisture advection, New Jersey, New Jersey coast, new jersey shore weather, New Jersey snowstorms, New Jersey Weather, New York, New York City, New York City Weather, New York snow storms, New York Weather, new york weather today, Newark, newark nj, newark nj weather, nj local weather, NJ Weather, nj weather 10 day forecast, nj weather forecast, nj weather radar map, nj weather report, north carolina virginia, northern Mid Atlantic, northern Mid Atlantic weather, ny weather 10 day, ny weather forecast, ny weather forecast 10 day, ny weather map, nyc weather map, ocean city, ocean city nj, pa weather alerts, pa weather forecast, pa weather map, pa weather radar, pa weather report, past new york weather reports, Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania weather, Philadelphia, philadelphia pa weather, Philadelphia Weather, Phillies, point pleasant nj, Poughkeepsie, princeton nj weather news 12 nj weather, Reading, saturday morning, Scranton, scranton pa weather, seaside nj weather, snow, snow storms, steady stream, strong, Sussex, taking shape, thunderstorms, tides, tornado, trenton nj weather forecast, weather and nyc, weather doylestown pa, weather easton pa, weather edison nj, weather for nyc, weather for pa, weather forecast pa, weather in new york, weather in nj, weather in nj today, weather in ny, weather in nyc, weather in nyc today, weather in pa, weather indiana pa, weather map, weather montclair nj, weather new brunswick nj, weather new york, weather new york city, weather newark nj, weather nyc, weather nyc forecast, weather nyc ny, weather ocean city nj, weather of nj, weather of nyc, weather princeton nj, weather scranton pa, weather union nj, weather wayne nj, White Plains, widlwood nj, Wild Wood, wild wood nj weather, Winter, winter 2009, winter forecast, winter predictions, winter weather 2009, winter weather advisory, winter weather forecast, winter weather predictions, yahoo weather nyc, Yankee Stadium, Yankees. Technical Discussions Closed

Surprise Snow For The Hudson Valley To Start The Week?

March 11th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

7:05 AM
The model guidance in this period is in some disagreement on how to handle the upper level development of the pattern and therefore the surface features. I think the GFS is an outlier here and leaned more on the ECMWF with some tweaks here and there.
On Sunday afternoon, a disturbance in the southern [...]

Tags: accumulating snow, accumulation, Albany, Allentown, amounts, area, Atlantic, Atlantic City, Belmar, Bridgeport, cad, cloudy skies, coast, cold, cold air, cold rain, collapse, Connecticut, disagreement, Disturbance, early monday morning, ecmwf, england, evenings, evolution, exiting, forecast, forecast area, forecaster, forecasters, Freehold, gfs, guidance, Hartford, high, Hudson Valley, Islip, Long Island, low, lows, mid, Model Guidance, models, moderation, monday afternoon, nao, New Jersey, New York, New York City, Newark, normal, normals, Northeast, northern, Ohio, outlier, Pennsylvania, periods, Philadelphia, plains, Poughkeepsie, precipitation, precipitations, Rain, Reading, s, Scranton, sleet, snow, snow sleet, snowfall, snowfall amounts, snows, Storm, storm track, storms, suggestion, sunday evening, surface features, surfaces, surprise, surprise snow, surprises, Sussex, temperature, temperatures, Trough, valleys, weeke, White Plains, Wild Wood, wills. Technical Discussions Closed

Wet And Active Period Ahead

February 6th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

6:36 AM
Next week will feature a storm track that will begin over the southern Plains and head towards the eastern Great Lakes. This type of storm track is NOT a snow producer, but has the potential to develop an ice situation for some locations in the forecast area.
On Monday, the cold front will clear the [...]

Tags: Albany, Allentown, area, Atlantic City, Belmar, Bridgeport, cad, cloudy skies, coast, cold, cold air, cold front, Connecticut, evenings, forecast, forecast area, forecaster, forecasters, Freehold, freezing rain, front, Great Lakes, Hartford, heavy rain, high, Hudson Valley, ice, Islip, Long Island, low, lows, nao, New Jersey, New York, New York City, Newark, normal, normal temperatures, normals, north, northeastern Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania, periods, Philadelphia, plains, Poughkeepsie, quebec, Rain, Reading, scattered showers, Scranton, showers, snow, Storm, storm track, storms, Sussex, systems, temperature, temperatures, thursday morning, traps, tuesday night, valleys, warm, wednesday morning, wednesday night, weeke, wetter, White Plains, Wild Wood, wills. Technical Discussions Closed

Trends I’m Keeping An Eye On

January 28th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

9:04 AM
While the forecast is certainly going as planned, even the thoughts about the mid level forcing have worked out, I am noticing an interesting trend at 850 MB that bares watch. Note over western Pennsylvania that the progression of the 850 MB freezing line has stalled from moving north and then strong cold air [...]

Tags: advection, Albany, Allentown, area, Atlantic City, Belmar, Bridgeport, caa, cad, cold, cold air, cold dry air, colder temperatures, Connecticut, dry air mass, eastern Pennsylvania, evenings, ey, forecast, forecaster, forecasters, Freehold, frozen precipitation, Hartford, Hudson Valley, Islip, Long Island, low, lows, mid, mid level, New Jers Newark, New York, New York City, north, north forecast area, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, plains, Poughkeepsie, precipitation, precipitations, Rain, Reading, Scranton, snow, Storm, storms, surfaces, Sussex, temperature, temperatures, valleys, warm, watches, western pennsylvania, White Plains, white plains new york, Wild Wood, wills. Technical Discussions Closed

Forecast On Track As Precipitation Intensifies

January 28th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

5:34 AM
Good Morning Everyone!
So far this morning the forecast is pretty much on track. Precipitation has changed over to rain over the immediate southern New Jersey Coast or basically from Atlantic City southward through Cape May County. A mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain is falling over interior southern New Jersey into Philadelphia as [...]

Tags: Albany, Allentown, amounts, area, Atlantic, Atlantic City, band, Belmar, Bport, cad, cape may county, coast, Connecticut, continuation, county, discussion, east, Fall, forecast, forecast area, forecaster, forecasters, Freehold, freezing rain, Hartford, heavy snowfall, ice, Islip, Long Island, low, lows, mid, moderation, Monmouth, Monmouth County, New Jersey, New York, New York City, Newark, north, Northeast, observation, observations, Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Poughkeepsie, precipitation, precipitation changes, precipitations, Rain, Reading, Ridge, Scranton, sleet, snow, snow sleet, snowfall, snowfall amounts, surprise, Sussex, temperatures, warm, White Plains, Wild Wood, wills. Technical Discussions Closed

Watching The Pressure Trends

January 27th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

7:19 AM
This morning, a defined CAD signature is developing over the southern Mid Atlantic as snow is falling from Washington, D.C. to southern Pennsylvania. Why is the CAD so important?
My concern going into tomorrow morning is not so much heavy snow, which there will be, but for the potential for a significant ice event. [...]

Tags: 00z, accumulation, Albany, Allentown, area, Atlantic, Atlantic City, Belmar, Bridgeport, cad, city metro, coast, coastal plain, cold, cold air, Connecticut, east, evenings, Fall, forecast, forecast area, forecaster, forecasters, Freehold, freezing rain, guidance, Hartford, heavy snow, ice, Islip, Long Island, low, lows, metros, mid, Mid Atlantic, New Jersey, New York, New York City, Newark, Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, philadelphia metro, plains, Poughkeepsie, Rain, Reading, Scranton, signature, sleet, snow, southern pennsylvania, suggestion, Sussex, tomorrow evening, tomorrow morning, warm, Washington, washington d c, watches, wednesday morning, White Plains, Wild Wood, wills. Technical Discussions 2 Comments

Quick 00Z NAM/21Z SREF Thoughts

January 25th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

9:49 PM
I got most of the data in from the 00Z NAM and 21Z SREF guidance in. The idea from these guidances is a light to moderate snow starting Tuesday morning through early Wednesday morning followed by a snow/ice mix to the west of I-95 and a snow/ice/rain to the east of I-95. The position [...]

Tags: Albany, Allentown, area, Atlantic City, Belmar, Bridgeport, cad, coast, cold, Connecticut, east, evenings, forecast, forecaster, forecasters, Freehold, gfs, guidance, Hartford, high, ice, Islip, Long Island, low, lows, map, maps, moderation, nam, New Jersey, New York, New York City, Newark, north, Northeast, observation, observations, Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Poughkeepsie, precipitation, precipitations, radar, Rain, Reading, Scranton, signature, snow, south, sref, Storm, storms, surfaces, Sussex, systems, temperature, temperatures, warm, west, White Plains, Wild Wood, wills, Winter. Technical Discussions 3 Comments

Defined Thoughts And Increasing Confidence

January 24th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

10:52 AM
I’m going to cover all the thoughts for the next seven (7) days in this one post. The reason is because the short and medium range periods are really interconnected so there’s no point in splitting them up. So get that coffee cup and prepare to read a lot. I’m going to add more [...]

Tags: advection, air source, Albany, Allentown, amounts, area, Atlantic, Atlantic City, atmosphere, Baltimore, band, Belmar, Bridgeport, cad, canada, clouds, coast, coffee, coffee cup, cold, cold air moves, cold front, combinations, confidence, Connecticut, continuation, convergence, county, Delaware, dew points, disappointment, discussion, Disturbance, east, ecmwf, enhancement, ensembles, evenings, Fall, flurrie, forecast, forecast area, forecaster, forecasters, Freehold, front, gfs, guidance, Hartford, high, hpc, ice, interaction, isentropic, Islip, jfk, key point, lifting, Long Island, low, lows, Maine, map, maps, Maryland, medium range, meteorology, metros, Mexico, mid, mid level, Mississippi, models, moderation, moisture, New Jersey, New York, New York City, Newark, north, observation, patte, Pennsylvania, periods, Philadelphia, philadelphia metro, plains, Poughkeepsie, precipitation, precipitations, pva, qpf, quebec, Rain, Rant, Reading, Rockies, s, satellite, satellite images, Scon, scream, screams, similarity, snow, snowfall, south, south storm, Southeast, southeast canada, storms, suggestion, surfaces, Sussex, systems, temperature, temperatures, thermal gradient, thunder, thunders, tights, travelers, Trough, troughs, uncertainty, valleys, virga, Virginia, waa, waffling, warm, watches, weeke, west, White Plains, Wild Wood, wills. Technical Discussions 4 Comments

The Only Consistency In The Models Is Inconsistency

January 22nd, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

8:32 PM
I’ve been getting a lot of emails today about the period from Sunday through Thursday. Actually, I’ve been getting a lot of emails over the past 4 days about this period. I want to just send an apology if you didn’t get a response, consider this post your response.
My confidence for the period of [...]

Tags: Albany, Allentown, amounts, apology, area, Atlantic, Atlantic City, attitude, band, Belmar, Bport, cad, canada, coast, cold, cold front, colors, confidence, confluence, confusion, Connecticut, CONUS, convergence, depiction, disagreement, discussion, Disturbance, dives, dominance, dominants, east, ensembles, evenings, extent, ey, fillings, forecast, forecaster, forecasters, Freehold, front, gfs, Great Lakes, guidance, Hartford, high, hpc, intensity, isentropic, Islip, Jets, lifting, Long Island, low, lows, mb level, mesoscale, meteorologist, metros, mid, Mid Atlantic, Model Guidance, models, moderation, moisture, New Jers Newark, New York, New York City, normal, normals, north, observation, observations, Pennsylvania, periods, Philadelphia, plains, Polar Jet Stream, Poughkeepsie, precipitation, precipitation amounts, precipitations, radar, Rain, Rainfall, Reading, Ridge, Rockies, satellite, Scranton, scream, screams, showers, similarity, slope, snow, sound, soundings, south, south sref, Southeast, southeast canada, Storm, storm track, storms, subsidence, suggestion, surfaces, surprise, Sussex, systems, thermal gradient, tights, uncertainty, waves, weather, west, White Plains, Wild Wood, wills. Technical Discussions Closed

Troubling Trends

January 6th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

9:40 PM
There are some indications that I’ve seen in the past hour that has me a bit worried about significant ice for central, western, and northern New Jersey and much of eastern Pennsylvania.
At this point, most model guidance had the low level cold air pushed out of central and southern New Jersey and warm air [...]

Tags: area, cad, circulation, cold, cold air, continuation, Delaware, delaware river, different story, Disturbance, dominance, dominants, east, east wind, eastern Pennsylvania, far south, Freehold, guidance, high, ice, low, lows, Maryland, metros, Model Guidance, models, Newark, north, northern maryland, Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, philadelphia metro, Ridge, significant influence, signs, south, surface circulation, surfaces, Trenton, waa, warm, west, worries. Technical Discussions 1 Comment