9:30 PM

Yes, I love Kenny Rogers too and one of my favorite songs is The Gambler!

“You got to know when to hold ‘em, know when to fold ‘em.

Know when to walk away, know when to run
You never count your money, when you’re sittin’ at the table.
There’ll be time enough for countin’, when the dealin’s done.”

Well, tonight I feel a lot like the gambler sitting at the table debating on where I should bail on the potential of the winter storm for Friday evening through Sunday morning.  Just about every model guidance I look at says the same thing, which usually means that the model guidance has a pretty good handle on the upcoming pattern for the next few days.  That forecast strongly argues for suppression of the Sub Tropical disturbance and the associated moisture by the strong Polar Vortex that moves from Ontario to Quebec in the time period of Thursday through Saturday.  The synoptics behind this forecast is solid and reasonable.  So if a forecaster was to quickly jump on board with such a forecast, it would be reasonable.

However, the nagging problem I have is handling of the Sub Tropical disturbance off the coast of California this evening that will eventually become a significant storm along the Gulf Coast.  The majority of guidance has this feature weaken rapidly to the point that by Saturday afternoon, the disturbance is relatively flat and becoming absorbed in the Polar Jet stream over the northern Mid Atlantic.  The problem with this solution for me is the ridge axis over Montana by Friday night into Saturday that strongly argues for a synoptic environment for intensification of 500 MB features as the jet streak over the Plains intensifies.  Now, the current guidance may be on to something with the dominance of the Polar jet stream, and in the end the suppression idea may turn out to be correct, but not with the Sub Tropical disturbance disintegrating as seen on the 12 Z guidance.

The fact is that tonight the models will finally have complete observational analysis of the descending Polar Vortex and the Sub Tropical disturbance.  As The Gambler, I’m going to hold the “cards” and see how the data plays out for the next two “rounds of dealing” (model runs) before calling the all clear.

While I think the most significant snowfall will target Washington D.C. and Baltimore, I still think a threat needs to be monitored for southern New Jersey and the Philadelphia metropolitan area.  As for the New York City metropolitan area, the further north in that metropolitan area, the more likely that no impact will be felt from this storm.  I would certainly give the all clear to locations like the Hudson Valley and interior Connecticut and include northeastern Pennsylvania as well given the current data in front of me.

So the next 24 hours will be rather interesting to see how all this unfolds.