Tag Archive for 'cold air mass' at NY NJ PA Weather Forecasts

Arctic Express On The Way Along With More Snow Potential

January 8th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

7:49 AM
The theme going forward will likely crush the forecast for anyone going for a warm January. The combination of a strong negative EPO and the postion of the upper low over eastern Canada will support a very cold air mass to dive into the eastern two-thirds of the nation.
There can be no doubt that [...]

Tags: alberta clippers, amplification, arctic express, area, Atlantic, atmosphere, branch energy, canada, clipper, clippers, coast, cold, cold air mass, cold arctic air, combinations, dives, doubts, eastern canada, Energy, epo, er, forecast, forecast area, forecaster, forecasters, guidance, Gulf Coast, high, high potential, light snow, low, lows, medium range, metros, mid, Model Guidance, models, moisture, moisture in the atmosphere, no doubt, Philadelphia, postion, s, scream, screams, showers, significant snow, snow, snow event, snow showers, warm, weeke, wills. Technical Discussions Add a comment

Active Winter Weather To Continue

January 5th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

9:58 AM
The pattern will continue to amplify towards the end of the week and into the weekend. I want to touch on some points about the overall pattern first before discussion the forecast.
There is some discussion that the pattern appears to be like a return to mid December with a raging postive NAO. This is [...]

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Icy Conditions On The Way

January 5th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

9:21 AM
A very dangerous situation is developing for parts of the forecast area that can lead to some significant icing over parts of the interior by Wednesday morning. These types of forecast can be tricky to forecast because the line between a heavy rain and over 0.25″ of ice is like walking a tight rope [...]

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Growing Snow Threat For Next Weekend

January 4th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

10:30 AM
The pattern developing for the end of the week and into the weekend is one of a classic KU set up that we’ve seen before. Now, before everyone goes nuts, I am not suggesting that a KU storm is on the way. I can’t say that at for another 3 or 4 days. What [...]

Tags: alaska, Albany, Allentown, Atlantic City, Belmar, blocking, Bport, coast, cold, cold air mass, confluence, Connecticut, convergence, Energy, epo, evenings, Freehold, friday night, guidance, Hartfod, high, intensity, Islip, ku, Long Island, low, lows, Model Guidance, models, nao, New Jersey, New York, New York City, Newark, north, northern stream, nuts, Pennsylvania, periods, Philadelphia, pna, Poughkeepsie, precipitation, pva, quebec, Ridge, s, saturday evening, saturday night, Scranton, snow, Storm, storm track, storms, Sussex, transition, Trenton, Trough, ups, watches, weeke, west, west coast, White Plains, wills, Winter, winter storms. Technical Discussions Add a comment

Active Pattern Developing While Models Have A Difficult Job Ahead

December 27th, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

12:54 PM
Or maybe I should say meteorologist like me who are shaking their heads while looking at the model guidance. When we have a difficult pattern unfolding, the best thing to do is not get bogged down with details of rain/snow lines and what not.
Let’s think about this set up for a second.
One, [...]

Tags: amounts, area, Atlantic, blocking, bust, busts, canada, clipper, clippers, coastal plain, coastal waters, cold, cold air mass, confidence, continuation, delware, dominance, doubts, east, eastern canada, eve, evenings, forecast, forecast area, forecaster, forecasters, friday evening, friday night, greenland, guidance, high, ice, intensity, isentropic, job, lifting, low, lows, meteorologist, mid, Mid Atlantic, Model Guidance, models, nao, New England, newfoundland, north, Northeast, northwestern canada, Ohio, pacific northwest, periods, plains, precipitation, Rain, rain snow, Ridge, s, significant snow, snow, snow and ice, soundings, south, Storm, storms, synoptic, systems, transition, transitions, Trough, valleys, weeke, west, wills. Technical Discussions Add a comment

Initial Warm Period To Give Way To Cold And Stormy Pattern

December 24th, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

6:53 AM
Instead of the several days of warm conditions, the developing negative NAO and pattern amplification will give the forecast area two warm days and some perfect timing for the weekend! Well, almost perfect as I expect rain, but at least there won’t be any serious travel problems.
A cold front will slowly move towards [...]

Tags: Albany, alberta clippers, Allentown, amplification, area, Atlantic, Atlantic City, Belmar, blocking, Boston, Bport, clipper, clippers, cloudy skies, coast, coastal plain, cold, cold air mass, cold front, Connecticut, continuation, forecast, forecast area, forecaster, forecasters, Freehold, front, Great Lakes, greenland, Hartford, high, intensity, Islip, Long Island, low, lows, measurable snowfall, measurement, nao, New Jersey, New York, New York City, Newark, normal, north, Pennsylvania, perfect timing, periods, Philadelphia, plains, Poughkeepsie, quebec, Rain, Reading, Ridge, s, saturday and sunday, Scranton, showers, snow, snowfall, Sussex, systems, temperature, temperatures, time period, travel problems, Trough, warm, warm period, warm sector, weeke, White Plains, Wild Wood, wills. Technical Discussions Add a comment

Negative NAO To Blunt Warm Up, Developing Cold And Stormy Pattern On The Way

December 23rd, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

7:45 AM
The promise of a negative NAO has been seen on guidance for some time, but has never materialized because the way the model produced the negative NAO just didn’t make any sense. The atmospheric set up right now over the eastern Atlantic and Europe strongly supports the development of a negative NAO over the [...]

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Warm Start To Next Week Gives Way To Cold And Stormy End

December 12th, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

7:25 AM
The forecast area remains locked in a roller coaster of temperatures with wild swings from warm to cold. Another rise and fall in temperatures is expected for the next week as well.
A ridge will continue to build at 500 MB as a trough is carved out over the Pacific Northwest and Plains. The [...]

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Winter Storm Likely Over Interior. Coastal Plain, Not So Much

December 9th, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

The reason why I didn’t jump the gun on the solution from the GFS yesterday, specifically the 12Z GFS, was one simple and overriding reason. No negative NAO. No 50/50 low structure over the Canadian Maritimes. And a lot of timing needed to get conditions just right for a winter storm along the coast.
The [...]

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