Tag Archive for 'cold air' at NY NJ PA Weather Forecasts

This Pattern, More Than Meets The Eye

January 7th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

7:51 AM
Taking a look at the pattern via surface maps, the potential and interest in the pattern through this weekend into next week would best be described as boring, especially the GFS. However, if one was to look at 500 MB, they would come away with a totally different perspective on this pattern that is [...]

Tags: a, air express, amounts, area, Atlantic, atmosphere, blocking, clipper, clippers, coast, cold, cold air, cold conditions, CONUS, different perspective, Disturbance, dives, doors, doubts, east, ecmwf, Energy, epo, ey, forecast, forecast area, forecaster, forecasters, game, games, gfs, greenland, guidance, interaction, lifting, low, lows, map, maps, mid, Mid Atlantic, Model Guidance, models, moderation, nao, north, Northeast, northeastern connecticut, nuetral, Philadelphia, pv, Rain, Ridge, s, shortwave, shortwaves, snowfall, snowfall amounts, south, south storm, storm track, storms, surface maps, surfaces, surprise, systems, Trough, ukmet, weeke, west, wills, Winter. Technical Discussions 1 Comment

Good And Bad News This Morning

January 7th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

6:20 AM
I think I’ll start with the good news. The east wind has done its job as expected and has warmed the entire coastal plain above freezing including the major cities and surrounding suburbs. Heavy rain can be expected through the day as the best dynamics continue to be present over the forecast area. This [...]

Tags: bad news, cold, cold air, Connecticut, continuation, drought, east, east wind, forecast, forecast area, forecaster, forecasters, freezing rain, heavy rain, Hudson Valley, ice, job, major cities, northeastern Pennsylvania, northern valley, Pennsylvania, plains, Rain, sleet, southern New Jersey, valley locations, valleys, warm, wills. Technical Discussions Add a comment

Troubling Trends

January 6th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

9:40 PM
There are some indications that I’ve seen in the past hour that has me a bit worried about significant ice for central, western, and northern New Jersey and much of eastern Pennsylvania.
At this point, most model guidance had the low level cold air pushed out of central and southern New Jersey and warm air [...]

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A Very Icy Night Setting Up Away From The Coast

January 6th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

7:48 PM
Right now, if you are along the immediate coast, your snow and ice worries are all but over. The strengthening warm air advection off the Atlantic supported by the developing 850 MB low over the Tennessee and Ohio Valley has warmed the majority of the atmosphere above freezing, thus producing all rain for coastal [...]

Tags: advection, area, Atlantic, atmosphere, cad, coast, coastal connecticut, cold, cold air, Connecticut, continuation, eastern Pennsylvania, england, forecast, forecast area, forecaster, freezing rain, high, Hudson Valley, ice, isentropic, lifting, Long Island, low, lows, Mississippi, Mississippi Valley, New England, Northeast, Ohio, Pennsylvania, plains, precipitation, pva, Rain, s, sleet, snow, snow and ice, Southwest, temperature, temperatures, Tennessee, valleys, warm, warm air advection, wills, worries. Technical Discussions Add a comment

Colder Environment Setting Up Icy Weather For Interior

January 6th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

7:27 AM
The first observation I noticed throughout the forecast area was how dry the air was. This is a big deal everyone for one simple reason. Evaporational cooling.
The precipitation seen over Delaware and Maryland will slowly push north today, as high pressure gives way over the next 8 to 12 hours. Clouds will continue to [...]

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Evening Thoughts For Tuesday Night And Wednesday

January 5th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

7:40 PM
At this time, my thoughts for the storm on Tuesday night through Wednesday have not changed. However, I wanted to go over again how I think everything will evolving from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday afternoon.
Tuesday Morning: On Tuesday morning, clouds will increase throughout the forecast area. High pressure will be giving way to the [...]

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Threat Discussion For Tuesday Night And Wednesday Morning

January 4th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

7:30 PM
Tonight I want to focus on the increasing threat for heavy rain and significant icing for the forecast area.
As seen on the map above, the majority of the forecast area will have mostly rain to contend with by the Wednesday morning rush hour. A total of 1 to 2 inches of heavy rain will [...]

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Active Pattern Unfolding

January 3rd, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

8:00 AM
I want to deal with a few issues before going into the forecast.
First, the strong NAO is not a pattern that supports significant winter storms usually. It is the change from one NAO state to another that tends to support large winter storms. The best case scenario is a weak, negative NAO or a [...]

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Active And Blocking Pattern Ready To Rock Start Of 2009

December 31st, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

8:07 AM
There are some interesting themes that are coming from the medium range guidance over the past few runs that need to be addressed as we move into the first full week of January, 2009.
The first theme that the model generally agree on is that the block over Greenland will significantly intensify to build down [...]

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The 12Z Guidance And Thoughts For Friday

December 29th, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

8:59 PM
If you put your ear to the ground, you could hear the fall of a million snow lovers faint to the ground after seeing the 12Z GFS, which basically if taken verbatum would produce a significant snowfall for most of the forecast area, save southern New Jersey (even that location would still get measureable [...]

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