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Tag Archive for 'cold'

Significant Snow Storm Expected For The Forecast Area

7:42 AM
I was really tempted to issue a Stage 3 Alert for locastions from Philadelphia through the New York City metro including central New Jersey and the southern Hudson Valley and Connecticut.  However, I think it would be wise to wait for 12Z guidance to confirm the trends and developments I am seeing this morning. 
My [...]

The Cold And Snow Will Not Go Away Through Next Week

7:30 AM
The Arctic Express is on the way, and this has nothing to do with Santa Claus, however for some it might seem like Christmas morning all over again.
The negative EPO is going to be doing a heck of a job driving arctic cold air into the eastern two-third of the nation through next week.  [...]

Arctic Express On The Way Along With More Snow Potential

7:49 AM
The theme going forward will likely crush the forecast for anyone going for a warm January.  The combination of a strong negative EPO and the postion of the upper low over eastern Canada will support a very cold air mass to dive into the eastern two-thirds of the nation. 
There can be no doubt that [...]

Significant Snow Finally On The Way?

7:37 AM
There is a growing agreement in the model guidance that a significant snowfall will impact much of the forecast area. 
There’s a lot to discuss, but my ideas which I have presented have not changed overall, but I am able now to get in to some details on how this storm will develop on Saturday. 
First, [...]

Thoughts For The Weekend And Beyond

8:41 PM
I can tell the excitement is building for Saturday based on the emails that have flooded my inbox this afternoon.  Yes, the model guidance, and I mean all model guidance, is picking up on the potential for the Alberta Clipper on Saturday. 
Before we get into the model guidance, let’s get back to the basics [...]

Thoughts on Friday On The Way

7:39 PM
I just want to say, I got all your emails and yes I know about the GFS and ECMWF is showing on Saturday.  See what I mean about not letting your guard down with this clipper?  Anyway, I’m going to give my complete thoughts on this entire set up and the impressive cold (and [...]

This Pattern, More Than Meets The Eye

7:51 AM
Taking a look at the pattern via surface maps, the potential and interest in the pattern through this weekend into next week would best be described as boring, especially the GFS.  However, if one was to look at 500 MB, they would come away with a totally different perspective on this pattern that is [...]

Heavy Ice And Rain To Continue Through This Afternoon

7:27 AM
The forecast for the next three days is obviously going to be the most active in the next 24 hours.
Currently, a coastal low pressure system is developing off the New Jersey coast.  Winds along the coast are beginning to turn to the northwest over southern New Jersey and northeast along Long Island, clearly indicating [...]

Good And Bad News This Morning

6:20 AM
I think I’ll start with the good news.  The east wind has done its job as expected and has warmed the entire coastal plain above freezing including the major cities and surrounding suburbs.  Heavy rain can be expected through the day as the best dynamics continue to be present over the forecast area.  This [...]

Troubling Trends

9:40 PM
There are some indications that I’ve seen in the past hour that has me a bit worried about significant ice for central, western, and northern New Jersey and much of eastern Pennsylvania.
At this point, most model guidance had the low level cold air pushed out of central and southern New Jersey and warm air [...]