Free weather forecast for New York, New Jersey, and eastern Pennsylvania.
8:07 AM
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The pattern for February has certainly delivered as advertised, producing near record if not surpassing record snowfalls throughout the region. However, like any other pattern, this pattern will come to an end and the clues to the pattern ending are already showing up.
– Weather When Posted –Temperature: 26°F;Humidity: 11%;Heat Index: 26°F;Wind Chill: 12°F;Pressure: [...]
10:05 AM
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Over the past three weeks, the 500 MB pattern has been generally unfavorable for any significant winter storms for a variety of reasons. At first, the overwhelming strength of the negative NAO suppressed any potential for Sub Tropical disturbances to interact with the cold air at place, leading to a cold and dry [...]
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9:15 AM
As discussed yesterday, the rapid cooling of the Stratosphere the past few weeks lead to the collapse of the high latitude blocking that supported the strongly negative Arctic Oscillation and the negative North Atlantic Oscillation. Over the next ten days, the Sub Tropical jet stream will be the dominant influence on the pattern, [...]
9:04 AM
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There can be no doubt that change is in the air as the Arctic Oscillation relaxes and the Sub Tropical jet stream gets some breathing room to flex its muscles now. The result of which is a pattern that by next week leads to a ridge moving through the East and a deep [...]
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9:33 AM
The MJO has gone into the circle of death, which basically means the wave has fallen apart. What does this mean for the pattern going forward? Also, what do I expect for the storm next week?
– Weather When Posted –Temperature: 23°F;Humidity: 57%;Heat Index: 23°F;Wind Chill: 10°F;Pressure: 30.06 in.;
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8:40 AM
The medium range guidance is suggesting a pattern break down after this weekend, but the question is if this is a pattern reload or pattern collapse or even if the warm up is as strong as suggested. When the models get crazy, it’s time to go back to what really drives the weather.
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8:49 PM
Today was yet another hot day over the forecast area as temperatures topped out in the lower 90’s for highs. Weak yet effective high pressure was dominating the forecast area with generally clear skies to a few scattered clouds. The heat index, with dew points in the mid to upper 60’s, approached 100 degrees [...]
5:35 AM
Tropical Depression Two is on its last legs after hours of southeasterly shear and a lack of convection around the low level center. In fact, the National Hurricane Center even decided to stop issuing updates on what is now just a tropical low pressure system.
So why did Tropical Depression Two basically collapse? Well, there [...]
7:55 AM
While the upper low over the central Tropical Atlantic is no more, a strong westerly shear dominates much of the region with no development expected over the next three days. A trough over the Caribbean Sea is producing strong southwesterly shear from Cuba on through the Leeward Islands. Meanwhile, disturbances coming off the African [...]
6:27 PM
The warm front has not pushed through the immediate coast of central and southern New Jersey, and when I say immediate, I mean roughly from the shore back to about 5 miles west. Low level clouds and a cooler northeasterly wind has kept temperatures much cooler (mid to upper 50’s) than the rest of [...]
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