Confidence | NY NJ PA Weather Forecasts

Tag Archive for 'confidence'

Southern New Jersey focus of snowfall

January 27th, 2010 by Steven DiMartino

9:07 PM
This morning I discussed my uncertainty in the forecast and where I felt the largest threat for an accumulating snowfall will be most likely. While my uncertainty for the storm was pretty clear, I did feel confident enough to state that the northern interior was going to miss out on this storm. My concern [...]

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High pressure gives way as rain is on the way

June 17th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

7:27 AM
The pleasant weather conditions from yesterday are about to come to an end. So is my confidence in model guidance, by the way. However, before I get to that, let’s take a look at the precipitation that is charging towards the forecast area.
High pressure currently centered over eastern Connecticut and Rhode Island, will continue [...]

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Drier weather returns to the forecast area

June 16th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

7:58 AM
The rainy pattern that much of the forecast area has experienced this June is taking a short break, as high pressure positions itself over Maine this morning. The position of the high pressure system will still force a marine air mass in place over the region, which is supporting the low clouds this morning. [...]

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Tropical update for Friday, June 5 2009

June 5th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

7:32 AM
While strong shear continues to dominate much of the Tropical Atlantic, model guidance does hint for the potential for tropical development over the eastern Gulf of Mexico or western Caribbean Sea by next week.
The water vapor image this morning shows a cold front is driving through the eastern Gulf of Mexico, producing strong [...]

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National Weather Service Chimes In

March 2nd, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

6:02 AM
The National Weather Service from Mount Holly has put out some “estimations” of how much snow has fall over the forecast area in the latest Winter Storm Warning. I’m not sure how accurate it is, but here is what they say:

WHEN THE SNOW FINALLY COMES TO AN END THIS AFTERNOON, THERE SHOULD
BE A TOTAL [...]

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Afternoon Update And Video Discussion

February 28th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

4:54 PM
The latest model guidance and observations of the atmosphere are strongly pointing to what now looks like a major snow storm for the forecast area. The idea of a near perfect storm track to support a heavy snowfall is gaining major support from almost all model guidance. The biggest determining factor though is the [...]

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Snowy Tuesday Or Just Snow Showers?

January 31st, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

10:12 AM
The medium range forecast obviously is focused on Tuesday as to whether the forecast area gets a heavy snowfall or nothing at all. It’s amazing just how much the model guidance has changed in the past few days where the forecast from ALL guidance went from a driving rainstorm for the forecast area and [...]

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Thoughts On Afternoon Data And The Storm For Tuesday Through Wednesday Night

January 25th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

6:26 PM
I don’t think anyone can argue that the model guidance has warmed. There has been little shift in the actual storm track, but the low pressure systems that impact the forecast area appear to have stronger WAA at the mid levels are the very least. There is a lot to consider here, but I [...]

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Models Coming Into Agreement For Significant Snow For Forecast Area

January 25th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

10:09 AM
Almost all the model guidance is beginning to come into agreement in the overall pattern idea, but there are still difference on exactly how the disturbances develop within the pattern.
Currently I don’t have much of a change in the forecast. My approach as far as model guidance is to take a combination of the [...]

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Defined Thoughts And Increasing Confidence

January 24th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

10:52 AM
I’m going to cover all the thoughts for the next seven (7) days in this one post. The reason is because the short and medium range periods are really interconnected so there’s no point in splitting them up. So get that coffee cup and prepare to read a lot. I’m going to add more [...]

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