Tag Archive for 'confluence' at NY NJ PA Weather Forecasts

Growing Snow Threat For Next Weekend

January 4th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

10:30 AM
The pattern developing for the end of the week and into the weekend is one of a classic KU set up that we’ve seen before. Now, before everyone goes nuts, I am not suggesting that a KU storm is on the way. I can’t say that at for another 3 or 4 days. What [...]

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Active Pattern Unfolding

January 3rd, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

8:00 AM
I want to deal with a few issues before going into the forecast.
First, the strong NAO is not a pattern that supports significant winter storms usually. It is the change from one NAO state to another that tends to support large winter storms. The best case scenario is a weak, negative NAO or a [...]

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Winter Returns, But Questions Remain

December 28th, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

10:22 AM
The up coming forecast for the middle and end of this week is going to be very difficult. The overall idea here on all model guidance is that the negative NAO block will be established while a series of clippers move through the forecast area. One clipper intensifies, and produces a strong Miller B [...]

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Difficult Forecast With Huge Bust Potential And Significant Ice And Snow Amounts

December 19th, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

12:21 AM
You know, model guidance is suppose to get better and into strong agreement less than 24 hours away from an event. Unfortuantly for the forecast area and this forecaster, that was not the case tonight as the GFS went extreme warm and the NAM/WRF went colder.
So with no trust what so ever in [...]

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A Snowy Tricky Forecast For Friday

December 17th, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

5:58 PM
The watches are going up and the excitement is growing. Well, for some at least. We have another winter storm on the way for the forecast area on Friday. However, I have a slightly different take on this forecast and I still have a lot of uneasiness about this storm in general, especially over [...]

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Key For Winter Storms Is Strength Of High Pressure

December 17th, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

9:55 AM
The main theme and determining factor for the next two storms will play out over our neighbors to the north as strong Arctic high pressure ridges and builds over southeastern Canada and into New England. I’m going to focus on each storm separately in this post, however the overall theme remains the same.
FRIDAY THROUGH [...]

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00Z NAM Thoughts This Evening

December 16th, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

10:16 PM
Looking past tonight, the forecast period for Friday is beginning to enter the range of the NAM/WRF data. Now, I first want to say that it is NEVER a good idea with going with a verbatum forecast from the NAM past 66 hours. However, I want to high light some of the features in [...]

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Thoughts Before Bed

December 16th, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

11:16 PM
There are some trends that I want to discuss before heading off to bed with the model guidance in general.
So far with the 00Z guidance tonight, we continue to see some interesting trends for the forecast area. One feature I want to key on is the development and sustained presence of strong high [...]

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Warm Or Cold, It’s All Up To The EPO

December 13th, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

9:00 AM
You got to love the model guidance this year. Rain, snow, rain, snow. Well, let’s through in some ice and then some wild long range pattern forecasts.
Time to get back to the basics, and the best way to do that is to look at the overall pattern that has been and continues to [...]

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Evening Thoughts-Icy Pattern Unfolding?

December 12th, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

8:47 PM
The model guidance is starting to come into better and better agreement with the upcoming pattern after Tuesday afternoon, which may have some very icy implications for the entire forecast area, even the coastal plain.
The main feature I want to focus on is the 12Z GFS, 18Z GFS, 12Z ECMWF, even GEFS ensemble [...]

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