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7:49 AM
Another run and more indecision on the model guidance on what to expect for the period of Sunday night through Monday. What disturbance is causing these issues? I have found the culprit and this feature is not going to be handled very well until late in the week at the earliest!
– Weather When [...]
This is a preview of the premium content I will be offering in the near future. Podcasts and videos will also follow along with live coverage of storm events. More details to come, but in the meantime I hope everyone enjoys this discussion!
The ECMWF of late has trended to a solution that is far less [...]
7:54 AM
This morning a strengthening upper low over New England will be the driving force behind a very cold and breezy day over much of the northern Mid Atlantic. The exiting upper low will enhance the development of a ridge over much of the Mid Atlantic at 500 MB and set up an environment where [...]
11:00 PM
In this morning’s post I discussed the threat of a stronger coastal low due to a more pronounced coastal front. The guidance from 12Z and 18Z took a troubling turn in suggesting just that scenario. One of which, that even suggest that the coastal low becomes the primary low SOUTH of the northern Mid [...]
11:21 PM
As the model guidance for the 00Z NAM and 00Z GFS came in, my thoughts centered on a question that bugged me about the end of next week. Just how cold will the boundary layer be? Do the models introduce the impact of a one to two feet snowpack, which will keep the boundary [...]
9:57 AM
This post is going to lack images. I want to focus on trying to explain this without any distraction as we enter a period of weather that may lend to some rather wintery results. Let me be clear, this pattern may reload at some point in December, but that reload will be brief as [...]
5:30 PM
On Saturday, December 5th 2009; a weak yet moisture loaded area low pressure produced a swath of precipitation over much of the Mid Atlantic. The storm started out as rain for many locations throughout the Philadelphia and New York City metropolitan area, but eventually turned over to snow.
A few days before the minor snow [...]
6:40 AM
As the coastal low explodes off the northern New England coastal waters, a tight pressure gradient continues to intensify over the Philadelphia and New York City metropolitan area.
The pressure gradient will reach peak intensity late this morning before weakening under the influence of high pressure to the west. However, in the meantime, winds will [...]
12:42 PM
The 12Z GFS is coming in as I type and the stormy potential is becoming more impressive for the Mid Atlantic.
The latest guidance continues the theme of a disturbance over the eastern Rockies from the Sub Tropical Jet Stream interacting with a disturbance from the Polar Jet stream. By Thursday morning, this disturbance intensifies [...]
5:15 AM
The atmosphere is going to be in a rapid state of change through this week as an upper low gives way to a Southeast ridge followed by a deep trough, which will bring a variety of conditions ranging from above normal temperatures and the potential of thunderstorms to temperatures falling well below normal all [...]
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