Confusion | NY NJ PA Weather Forecasts

Models Come Into Better Agreement This Morning On No Storm This Weekend

February 18th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

6:20 AM
Last night I discussed the fact that the 12Z ECWMF from yesterday was not a solution to be trusted given the overall state of the current atmospheric set up. There was some confusion by some about what I was saying. So let me be very detailed here.
1. Just because there is an upper low [...]

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The Only Consistency In The Models Is Inconsistency

January 22nd, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

8:32 PM
I’ve been getting a lot of emails today about the period from Sunday through Thursday. Actually, I’ve been getting a lot of emails over the past 4 days about this period. I want to just send an apology if you didn’t get a response, consider this post your response.
My confidence for the period of [...]

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Forecast Coming Together For Sunday Storm

January 16th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

7:48 AM
I am starting to get a pretty good grasp on what to expect for Sunday, but before I dive into that, we must deal with the biting cold that is over the forecast area right now.
Today through tomorrow, strong high pressure will be over the forecast area, which is a blessing in disguise. Yes, [...]

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Storm Or No Storm, That Is The Question

January 15th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

7:52 AM
What can I say, I’m going to misuse that quote for the rest of my life.
So, you are probably looking at the model guidance over the past 24 hours and asking yourself what the heck is going on. If you want an idea on how well model guidance is handling the potential for Sunday [...]

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Colder Environment Setting Up Icy Weather For Interior

January 6th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

7:27 AM
The first observation I noticed throughout the forecast area was how dry the air was. This is a big deal everyone for one simple reason. Evaporational cooling.
The precipitation seen over Delaware and Maryland will slowly push north today, as high pressure gives way over the next 8 to 12 hours. Clouds will continue to [...]

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A Roller Coast For Temperatures And Snow For The Interior

December 10th, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

Most of you are outside right now, and if you are in southern New Jersey you may be confused as to whether we are in April or December as temperatures soar into the 60’s. Well the party is about to come to an end as cold air breaks into the forecast area, but not before [...]

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Working On Winter Forecast

October 18th, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

I’ll be working on the winter forecast through this afternoon and evening hours. At this point I have about 15 pages written about this winter. Don’t worry, I’m going to condense it after I’m done.
I know the big tool to use in long range forecasting is looking at an index, say the PDO, and [...]

Tags: confusion, correlations, enso, evening hours, evenings, excerpts, forecast, long range forecast, mistake, pdo, previous years, sun spot, weather, weather boards, Winter. General Discussions Closed

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