NY NJ PA Weather Forecasts

Light rain and snow tonight leads to minor accumulations

6:36 PM
I have been hinting for some time that the precipitation shield for tonight’s storm was going to be more expansive than what was being forecasted.  However, I am not very impressed with the accumulation potential for this storm.  The first and foremost is the warm boundary layer temperatures.
Besides the fact that the surface freezing [...]

Major Snow Storm with Blizzard Conditions Expected Saturday through Sunday afternoon

10:14 PM
Obviously tonight all of our focus is on the storm that is on the way for Saturday.  This afternoon, the model guidance took a strong swing towards what I defined two days ago as scenario 3, which is a full phase intense winter storm that is capable of producing significant snowfall.  Given the data [...]

Cold sets in as storm potential increases along the coast

8:06 AM
The big story this morning is obviously the potential significant snowfall for the coastal locations of the northern Mid Atlantic.  I will be diving into my thoughts on the evolution of this storm, and what to look for in the next 24 hours in guidance in a minute.
First, the conditions of this morning should [...]

Coastal storm reaches peak impact today

6:45 AM
A lot of interesting developments happened over night as a gravity wave appears to have impacted the southern Mid Atlantic, which caused the rain shield to unexpectedly collapse overnight.  However, another round of rain has finally started to move back into the coast from southern Connecticut to south-central New Jersey.  Despite the unexpected relatively dry [...]

More thoughts on Ida

10:21 AM
I wanted to expand my thoughts on Ida beyond the usual discussion.  To be frank, I don’t have a lot of confidence on the models right now, but 99% of the time when all the models are pointing towards a general conclusion, it is usually a good idea to follow.
However, let’s talk about that [...]

Evening Thoughts- disturbances and latent heat release

9:45 PM
This evening, several locations throughout the Philadelphia and New York City metropolitan area experienced a brief period of heavy rain, strong wind gusts, and even some lightning and thunder.  The culprit behind this line of convection was the cold front that will eventually cause the coastal low off the New England coast to explode. [...]

Tropical Weather Update for Saturday, October 10 2009

8:49 AM

A new trough is moving into the western Gulf of Mexico and is leading to an environment unfavorable for tropical develop this morning.  Southwesterly shear is expected to continue from the Gulf of Mexico through the western Caribbean over the next 48 hours.
A disturbance over the central Caribbean is interacting with the trough [...]

Tropical Weather Update for Thursday, October 8th 2009

4:45 AM

Tropical Depression Henri continues to fall under the influence of strong southwesterly shear with the center of circulation located southwest of the strongest convection this morning.  Henri will continue to weaken over the next 24 hours and likely dissipate by Friday morning.
The rest of the tropical Atlantic remains quiet.  A deep trough and [...]

Tropical Weather Update for Wednesday, October 7 2009

4:45 AM
The Tropical Atlantic remains slightly more active compared to the previous few weeks.  Tropical Storm Grace is now history as the remnants race into western Europe.  However, a new tropical storm, Henri, has formed to the east of the Leeward Islands.
Tropical Storm Henri continues to get slightly better organized overnight, however it is clear [...]

Evening Thoughts- Tropical Storm Henri and the active pattern begins

9:20 PM
When I think of a developing tropical system, I usually expect to have a defined area of convection under the influence of at least weak shear.  Tropical Storm Henri’s formation bucks the typical characteristics of a developing tropical system.  Tropical Storm Henri is located under the large area of convection to the northeast of [...]