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12Z NAM Thoughts

February 8th, 2010 by Steven DiMartino

9:55 AM
The 12Z NAM is out and to the left is the QPF output for the storm based on this run. Now I know many of you in northeastern Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey, and even New York City are screaming right now in frustration. Is the NAM forecasting a miss for these areas? Well,not exactly.
What [...]

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Threats to consider today-flash flooding and tornadoes?

September 11th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

9:00 AM
A tornado watch is in effect over much of central and southern New Jersey this morning and is in effect until 12 PM. The potential in an isolated tornado lies within the thunderstorms entering from the Atlantic and moving over the coastal plain. The majority of these thunderstorms are weak and are not expected [...]

Tags: Albany, Allentown, Atlantic City, atlantic ocean, atmosphere, Belmar, Bridgeport, cape may new jersey, Citi Field, coastal plain, coastal waters, Connecticut, convective, Freehold, hail, Hartford, heavy rain, intensity, Islip, jet stream, level jet, lightning, Long Island, Long Island Sound, metropolitan areas, Mets, moisture transport, New Jersey, New Jersey coast, New York, New York City, Newark, Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Phillies, Poughkeepsie, Reading, Scranton, shades, slight difference, spc, Sussex, thunderstorms, tides, tornado, tornado watch, tornadoes, White Plains, Wild Wood, wind direction, wind speed, Yankee Stadium, Yankees. Technical Discussions Closed

What has caused the heavy rainfall this month?

June 21st, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

9:52 AM
June has seen some very impressive rainfall amounts with many locations well over an inch above normal. Even some locations double the amount of normal rainfall. While a continuous onslaught of showers and thunderstorms have impacted much of the Mid Atlantic, and specifically the New York City and Philadelphia metropolitan areas, other locations have [...]

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A break in the wet weather today, but more rain on the way

June 19th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

7:15 AM
As low pressure exits the forecast area this morning, a brief break in the clouds and rainfall can be expected through the day. In case anyone forgot, that big bright ball in the sky is called the sun, and no we are not in Seatlle. Weak high pressure over the eastern Great Lakes will [...]

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High pressure gives way as rain is on the way

June 17th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

7:27 AM
The pleasant weather conditions from yesterday are about to come to an end. So is my confidence in model guidance, by the way. However, before I get to that, let’s take a look at the precipitation that is charging towards the forecast area.
High pressure currently centered over eastern Connecticut and Rhode Island, will continue [...]

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Tropical Weather Update for Tuesday, June 16 2009

June 16th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

7:32 AM
This morning over the Tropical Atlantic, a strong upper low northeast of the Leeward Islands is producing strong southwesterly shear from the eastern Caribbean through the central tropical Atlantic. This shear is and will continue to inhibit any type of development for the next 48 hours.
However, wind shear has weakened considerably over the [...]

Tags: Atlantic, Caribbean, coast, continuation, convection, convective, Disturbance, Gulf of Mexico, high, Leeward Islands, low, lows, Mexico, Northeast, Shear, showers, southwesterly shear, specifics, surfaces, thunderstorm, thunderstorms, Tropical, tropical weather update, tropics, updates, weather, western caribbean, wills, wind shear, Yucatan, Yucatan Peninsula. Technical Discussions Closed

Thunderstorms over Ohio Valley to influence conditions this afternoon

June 11th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

8:43 AM

A strong Mesoscale Convective System or MCS is currently moving through the Ohio Valley this morning behind a warm front that ismoving through western Pennsylvania. The MCS is supported by a mid level disturbance that is moving east along the frontal boundary and will approach the forecast area by late this afternoon. While I [...]

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Strong thunderstorms on the move, more to come later

June 9th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

7:18 AM
There’s a lot to discuss this morning, so lets dive right into it!
An impressive line of thunderstorms has developed early this morning in response to the strong low level jet stream at 950 and 850 MB this morning. The warm front continues to lift north and eastward, but is having some difficulty doing so [...]

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Severe weather continues over Cape May, New Jersey and points south

June 3rd, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

8:55 PM
The cold front that will like plaque the forecast area for the next two days is slowly slipping south through Cape May County, New Jersey and the Delaware Bay this evening. Strong to severe thunderstorms continue to impact much of Cape May County this evening as moderate instability remains in the atmosphere. However, as [...]

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Tropical Update for Wednesday, June 3 2009

June 3rd, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

7:38 AM
The tropical Atlantic remains generally quiet this morning however there is one interesting area that I will continue to keep an eye on. Last night I noticed that convection continued to rapidly develop and move towards the central Gulf Coast. This convection developed due to the influences of a disturbance over the southern Plains [...]

Tags: area, Atlantic, boundaries, Caribbean, central gulf coast, coast, cold, cold front, continuation, convection, convective, convergence, Disturbance, enhancement, ey, front, Gulf of Mexico, high, inter tropical convergence zone, june 3, lifting, Mexico, mid, Mid Atlantic, north, northe, plains, Shear, Southwest, southwesterly shear, Tropical, tropical development, tropical update, tropics, updates, upper level winds, wills, wind shear. Technical Discussions Closed