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7:49 AM
Another run and more indecision on the model guidance on what to expect for the period of Sunday night through Monday. What disturbance is causing these issues? I have found the culprit and this feature is not going to be handled very well until late in the week at the earliest!
– Weather When [...]
11:00 PM
In this morning’s post I discussed the threat of a stronger coastal low due to a more pronounced coastal front. The guidance from 12Z and 18Z took a troubling turn in suggesting just that scenario. One of which, that even suggest that the coastal low becomes the primary low SOUTH of the northern Mid [...]
11:21 PM
As the model guidance for the 00Z NAM and 00Z GFS came in, my thoughts centered on a question that bugged me about the end of next week. Just how cold will the boundary layer be? Do the models introduce the impact of a one to two feet snowpack, which will keep the boundary [...]
9:57 AM
This post is going to lack images. I want to focus on trying to explain this without any distraction as we enter a period of weather that may lend to some rather wintery results. Let me be clear, this pattern may reload at some point in December, but that reload will be brief as [...]
5:30 PM
On Saturday, December 5th 2009; a weak yet moisture loaded area low pressure produced a swath of precipitation over much of the Mid Atlantic. The storm started out as rain for many locations throughout the Philadelphia and New York City metropolitan area, but eventually turned over to snow.
A few days before the minor snow [...]
6:45 AM
The coastal storm that has battered much of the New Jersey coast with significant flooding and has produced heavy rain along much of the coast is starting to wind down. An inverted trough extending from the surface low pressure east of North Carolina continues to enhance low level forcing over much of the northern [...]
6:40 AM
As the coastal low explodes off the northern New England coastal waters, a tight pressure gradient continues to intensify over the Philadelphia and New York City metropolitan area.
The pressure gradient will reach peak intensity late this morning before weakening under the influence of high pressure to the west. However, in the meantime, winds will [...]
5:15 AM
A strong cold/occluded front is driving through Pennsylvania this morning and will eventually cross the entire forecast area by this afternoon with widespread showers impacting the region. The deep moisture transport from the Gulf of Mexico will support the potential for some of these showers to produce heavy downpours over eastern Pennsylvania through New [...]
6:42 AM
Much of the Philadelphia and New York City metropolitan areas are starting off very chilly this morning with temperatures in the mid to upper 40’s throughout the region. Temperatures will rebound into the 50’s and 60’s for afternoon highs, but even for the first day of October, the temperatures today will average well below [...]
5:15 AM
Over the past several days, much of the New York City and Philadelphia metropolitan areas can expect dry and very comfortable weather conditions. A strong upper low anchored over New England will continue to be positioned in such a way to produce strong convergence and confluence over the northern Mid Atlantic. This in turn [...]
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