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Mesoscale breakdown for Friday morning

January 6th, 2010 by Steven DiMartino

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9:11 AM
A light snow event is going to unfold on Friday morning, but the details remain uncertain as much depends on the evolution of mesoscale parameters. So this morning, I’m going to try to clear some of the fog and mist of this time period and discuss the potential that exits and why it [...]

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Developing low expected to impact region through this week

September 7th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

7:15 AM
This morning, the water vapor satellite image clearly shows the new and rather interesting pattern developing over the eastern half of the United States. A strong upper level disturbance is diving into the Tennessee Valley this morning, carving a negatively tilted weak trough from the Mississippi Valley to the Southeast and Mid Atlantic coast.
Meanwhile, [...]

Tags: air dries, air mass, Albany, Allentown, ample moisture, Atlantic City, atlantic ocean, Belmar, Bridgeport, canadian maritimes, Citi Field, coastal waters, Connecticut, convection, cyclogenesis, forecast area, Freehold, hail, Hartford, heavy rain, Islip, lightning, Long Island, Long Island Sound, Mets, Mid Atlantic, Mississippi Valley, New Jersey, New Jersey coast, New York, New York City, Newark, northern quebec, Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Phillies, Poughkeepsie, pressure gradient, Reading, satellite image, Scranton, southeastern canada, stationary front, Sussex, Tennessee Valley, thunderstorms, tides, tornado, upper level disturbance, upper trough, water vapor image, water vapor satellite, White Plains, Wild Wood, Yankee Stadium, Yankees. Technical Discussions Closed

Virga Building, Carefully Monitoring

January 18th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

2:50 PM
If you are wondering why I am not shooting out rapid updates, it is because I am trying to be very careful in what I am seeing this afternoon.
Personally, the issue at hand is I don’t want to go off screaming snow storm developing and then it does. That would kill my credibility of [...]

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Concerns About Sunday, Breaking Down The Possibilities

January 15th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

9:17 PM
The forecast for Sunday is a lot more difficult than what might think. Sure, the ECMWF shows basically a non event, but the ECMWF is not the only model out there and despite what some think, is not always right.
However, what all guidance show, whether you use the ECMWF, GFS, UKMET, or any other [...]

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Non-American Models Hinting At Potential For Sunday Night

January 13th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

7:41 AM
If you only look at the GFS and it’s ensemble guidance for Sunday night and Monday morning, you might think that I either had a very bad typo in my headlines this morning or I am pulling a storm out of the air like a magician.
However, there is growing support via the UKMET, ECMWF, [...]

Tags: air mass, american models, arctic air, Atlantic, coast, cold, cold front, cyclogenesis, Disturbance, dives, ecmwf, ensembles, epo, ey, front, general idea, gfs, guidance, Gulf Stream, intensification, low, lows, magician, mid, Mid Atlantic, models, monday morning, neutral state, periods, relaxation, snowfall, Storm, storms, sunday afternoon, sunday evening, transition, transitions, typo, ukmet, weeke, wills, Winter, winter storms. Technical Discussions Closed

Winter Returns, But Questions Remain

December 28th, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

10:22 AM
The up coming forecast for the middle and end of this week is going to be very difficult. The overall idea here on all model guidance is that the negative NAO block will be established while a series of clippers move through the forecast area. One clipper intensifies, and produces a strong Miller B [...]

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A Difficult Forecast For The End Of The Week

December 7th, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

I spent a long time looking at the model guidance this afternoon and developing the basic idea for what will unfold the next several days. Once again, those that worship models from run to run will most likely go insane as the guidance swings wildly from various solutions. Let’s first break down what we know [...]

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Arctic Air On The Way For End Of The Week

November 30th, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

There is some good news and bad news I want to share with everyone this morning based on this coming week and the weeks to follow. I’ll start with the bad news first to get it out of the way.
The bad news for the medium and long range pattern is that upper low over the [...]

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Components For A Northeast Snow Storm

November 23rd, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

I know there is a lot of excitement for the model runs over the past couple of days. There has been plenty of rumors of potential storms and very impressive arctic out breaks. However, ahead of the hysteria and excitement that we are all feeling (cause let’s face it, the winters the past 3 years [...]

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Watch Out For Early December

November 22nd, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

A continued theme from the December forecast, looks like model guidance is strongly jumping onto the idea of a very cold start to December for much of the CONUS. We have a strong PNA ridge developing for the start of December, but also some other interesting features. A strong upper low over California is expected [...]

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