Tag Archive for 'cyclogenesis' at NY NJ PA Weather Forecasts

Winter Returns, But Questions Remain

December 28th, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

10:22 AM
The up coming forecast for the middle and end of this week is going to be very difficult. The overall idea here on all model guidance is that the negative NAO block will be established while a series of clippers move through the forecast area. One clipper intensifies, and produces a strong Miller B [...]

Tags: accumulating snow, accumulation, amounts, area, Atlantic, blocking, cad, canada, clear skies, clipper, coast, cold, cold air, cold front, coming storm, confidence, confluence, continuation, convergence, cyclogenesis, delmarva, depiction, Disturbance, divergence, dives, ecmwf, england, extremes, forecast, forecast area, forecaster, forecasters, front, gfs, Great Lakes, greenland, guidance, high, Hudson Valley, intensification, intensity, Jets, low, lows, maximums, mid, Mid Atlantic, Model Guidance, models, moderate snow, moderation, nao, new england coast, north, Northeast, northeastern Pennsylvania, Northwest, northwester, Ohio, Pennsylvania, periods, Philadelphia, plains, precipitation, pretense, pva, quebec, Ridge, s, shortwave, showers, snow, snow showers, south, Southeast, southeastern canada, specifics, Storm, storms, surfaces, synoptic, systems, valleys, Virginia, waa, waves, weeke, western quebec, wills, Winter. Technical Discussions Add a comment

A Difficult Forecast For The End Of The Week

December 7th, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

I spent a long time looking at the model guidance this afternoon and developing the basic idea for what will unfold the next several days. Once again, those that worship models from run to run will most likely go insane as the guidance swings wildly from various solutions. Let’s first break down what we know [...]

Tags: 00z, accumulation, Albany, Allentown, area, Atlantic, Atlantic City, atmosphere, Belmar, Bridgeport, cad, cards, coast, cold, cold air mass, cold front, combinations, confluence, Connecticut, convergence, cyclogenesis, Disturbance, ecmwf, england, forecast, forecast area, forecaster, Freehold, front, gfs, guidance, Hartford, high, insanity, Islip, jet streams, Jets, lock and stock, Long Island, low, lows, mid, Mid Atlantic, Model Guidance, models, nao, New Jersey, New York, New York City, Newark, Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, plains, Poughkeepsie, quebec, Rain, Reading, Scranton, slides, slight difference, snow, snowfall, southern quebec, Storm, storms, Sussex, swing, swings, systems, thursday night, tomorrow night, White Plains, Wild Wood, wills, Winter. Technical Discussions 1 Comment

Arctic Air On The Way For End Of The Week

November 30th, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

There is some good news and bad news I want to share with everyone this morning based on this coming week and the weeks to follow. I’ll start with the bad news first to get it out of the way.
The bad news for the medium and long range pattern is that upper low over the [...]

Tags: Albany, Allentown, area, Atlantic, Atlantic City, atmosphere, bad news, baffin island, Belmar, blocking, Bridgeport, canada, canadian maritimes, cold, cold air, cold front, Connecticut, continuation, current position, cyclogenesis, Disturbance, east, ecmwf, ensembles, extremes, Fall, forecast, forecast area, forecaster, Freehold, front, frontal passage, games, gfs, guidance, Hartford, high, interaction, Islip, Long Island, low, lows, medium range, mid, Mid Atlantic, mid morning, models, nao, New Jersey, New York, New York City, Newark, normal, northern canada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, periods, Philadelphia, plains, Poughkeepsie, Rain, Reading, scattered showers, Scranton, shape, showers, slap, snow, south, Southeast, Storm, storms, stratosphere, stratospheric temperature, Sussex, systems, temperature, temperature anomalies, temperatures, thursday afternoon, ups, warm, warm temperatures, watches, waves, White Plains, Wild Wood, wills, Winter, winter storm. Technical Discussions Add a comment

Components For A Northeast Snow Storm

November 23rd, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

I know there is a lot of excitement for the model runs over the past couple of days. There has been plenty of rumors of potential storms and very impressive arctic out breaks. However, ahead of the hysteria and excitement that we are all feeling (cause let’s face it, the winters the past 3 years [...]

Tags: advection, Alabama, alabama gulf coast, Albany, Allentown, amounts, amplification, area, Atlantic, Atlantic City, atmosphere, axis, Belmar, Boston, Bport, cad, canada, cold, confluence, Connecticut, convergence, couple of days, cyclogenesis, discussion, Disturbance, divergence, east, england, explaination, extremes, Fall, forecast, forecast area, forecaster, Freehold, front, Great Lakes, Hartford, high, hysteria, intensity, Islip, Jets, likelihood, Long Island, low, lows, Mexico, Michigan, mid, Mid Atlantic, Mississippi, models, moderation, moisture, nao, New Jersey, New York, New York City, Newark, north, north atlantic oscillation, north observation, Northeast, northern new england, observations, Ohio, Pennsylvania, periods, Philadelphia, plains, Poughkeepsie, precipitation, quebec, Rain, Reading, Ridge, s, Scranton, snow, snow storm, snowfall, south, Southeast, southeastern ontario, Southern New England, southwestern quebec, Storm, storm track, storms, Sussex, systems, temperature, temperatures, Tropical, tropics, Trough, Vermont, warm, Washington, west, White Plains, Wild Wood, wills, Winter. Technical Discussions Add a comment

Watch Out For Early December

November 22nd, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

A continued theme from the December forecast, looks like model guidance is strongly jumping onto the idea of a very cold start to December for much of the CONUS. We have a strong PNA ridge developing for the start of December, but also some other interesting features. A strong upper low over California is expected [...]

Tags: Albany, Allentown, arctic air, area, Atlantic, Atlantic City, Belmar, Bport, cold, cold start, Connecticut, continuation, CONUS, cyclogenesis, east, East Coast, ecmwf, england, ensembles, forecast, forecast area, forecaster, Freehold, frontal boundary, gfs, greenland, guidance, gulf coast region, Gulf Stream, Hartford, interaction, Islip, Jets, Long Island, low, lows, Maine, map, Model Guidance, models, nao, New England, New Jersey, New York, New York City, Newark, north, Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, plains, pna, Poughkeepsie, Reading, Ridge, s, Scranton, south, Southeast, specifics, Storm, storm track, storms, stormy weather conditions, Sussex, train, Tropical, tropics, unstable air, warm, watches, weather, White Plains, Wild Wood, wills. Technical Discussions Add a comment

Cold Front And Coastal Monday Night, Return To Cold Through Thanksgiving

November 21st, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

Monday is going to be the warmest day for the past 7 days and the next 7 days after as a cold front approaches the forecast area. Don’t expect above normal temperatures though as the strengthening southwesterly flow will support near normal temperatures and increasing clouds through the period. 850 MB temperatures only barely cross [...]

Tags: afternoon highs, Albany, Allentown, area, Atlantic, Atlantic City, atmosphere, Belmar, blocking, Bridgeport, brunt, clouds, coastal development, cold, cold air, cold front, cold rain, Connecticut, continuation, cyclogenesis, degree c, Disturbance, dives, east, ecmwf, Energy, england, evenings, Fall, forecast, forecast area, forecaster, Freehold, front, gfs, Great Lakes, Hartford, high, Islip, Long Island, low, lows, mb temperatures, mid, mid levels, nao, New Jersey, New York, New York City, Newark, normal, normal temperatures, Northeast, Pennsylvania, periods, Philadelphia, Poughkeepsie, precipitation, Rain, rain showers, Reading, scattered showers, Scranton, showers, snow, snow shower, south, southwesterly flow, Sussex, systems, temperature, temperatures, thanksgiving, Trough, troughs, tuesday morning, upper level trough, weather, White Plains, Wild Wood, wills. Technical Discussions Add a comment

Cold Front, Potential Coastal, And The Developing Deep Freeze

November 20th, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

We are heading towards the finish line for November (wow, this month went fast), and all signs continue to point to some interesting potential for the forecast area through the Thanksgiving week.
First lets deal with the end of the weekend, which will be dry yet very cold on Sunday. Temperatures will continue to average [...]

Tags: Albany, Allentown, area, Atlantic, Atlantic City, atmosphere, Belmar, blocking, Bridgeport, brunt, coastal development, cold, cold air, cold front, Connecticut, continuation, cyclogenesis, Disturbance, divergence, ecmwf, england, evenings, Fall, few days, finish line, forecast, forecast area, forecaster, Freehold, front, gfs, Hartford, high, Islip, Long Island, low, lows, maa, Maine, mid, Mid Atlantic, models, monday tuesday, New England, New Jersey, New York, New York City, Newark, normal, north, north ohio, Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, plains, Poughkeepsie, precipitation, precipitation event, primar, Rain, Reading, Scranton, showers, signs, slides, snow, snow lovers, southwesterly winds, Storm, storms, Sussex, systems, temperature, temperatures, thanksgiving, time frame, transition, transitions, west, White Plains, Wild Wood, wills, windy. Technical Discussions Add a comment

Great Weekend Ahead, Cold Front By Monday

November 19th, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

High pressure that will move from the Great Lakes through the forecast area this weekend will provide clear and dry conditions through Saturday and Sunday for the forecast area. Temperatures will remain below normal at a rate of 8 to 12 degrees, so continue to expect chilly conditions.
The idea of a rapid warm up [...]

Tags: Albany, Allentown, area, Atlantic City, bad time, Belmar, Bridgeport, chilly conditions, clear skies, cold, cold front, Connecticut, continuation, cyclogenesis, Disturbance, elevation, england, forecast, forecast area, forecaster, Freehold, front, Great Lakes, guidance, Hartford, high, high temperature, Islip, Long Island, low, lows, Model Guidance, models, monday afternoon, monday morning, nao, New England, New Jersey, New York, New York City, Newark, normal, normal temperatures, Pennsylvania, periods, Philadelphia, Poughkeepsie, Rain, rain snow, Reading, saturday and sunday, scattered rain, Scranton, showers, snow, snow showers, Sussex, systems, temperature, temperature levels, temperatures, warm, White Plains, Wild Wood, wills. Technical Discussions Add a comment

Very Heavy Rains On The Way

November 11th, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

This week is certainly going to end on the very wet side as a storm gets it’s act together over the eastern third of the nation through Saturday morning.
I’m going to jump right to Thursday afternoon. The most interesting aspect of this period is the small yet intense southern branch disturbance that moves from the [...]

Tags: Albany, Allentown, area, Atlantic, Atlantic City, Belmar, Bridgeport, cold, cold front, Connecticut, cyclogenesis, Disturbance, divergence, eastern Pennsylvania, england, evenings, forecast, forecast area, forecaster, Freehold, front, Gulf Coast, Gulf of Mexico, Hartford, heavy rain, heavy rains, Hudson Valley, intensification, intensity, Islip, Jets, lifting, Long Island, lows, Mexico, Mid Atlantic, mid level, moisture, New Jersey, New York, New York City, Newark, Pennsylvania, periods, Philadelphia, Poughkeepsie, precipitation, Rain, rain event, Rainfall, Rainfall Amounts, Reading, saturday afternoon, saturday morning, Scranton, Storm, storms, Sussex, thermal gradient, thursday afternoon, upper level divergence, wet side, White Plains, Wild Wood, wills. Technical Discussions Add a comment

The Amplification Begins

November 11th, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

The pattern is becoming more amplified and we will begin to feel the effects of the amplification by Wednesday night.
First, it’s interesting to see that all model guidance now keeps the southern branch disturbance not only separate, but nearly shears the disturbance apart as the northern branch of the Jet Stream dominates the eastern United [...]

Tags: Albany, Allentown, amplification, area, Atlantic City, Belmar, Bridgeport, clear skies, cold, cold air, cold front, Connecticut, cyclogenesis, Disturbance, dominance, east, evenings, forecast, forecast area, forecaster, Freehold, friday evening, friday morning, front, guidance, Gulf Coast, Hartford, Islip, jet stream, Jets, lifting, Long Island, lows, mb temperatures, mid level, mild conditions, Model Guidance, models, New Jersey, New York, New York City, Newark, normal, normal temperatures, north, Pennsylvania, periods, Philadelphia, Poughkeepsie, Rain, Rainfall, Reading, saturday morning, Scranton, Shear, showers, south, steady rainfall, Sussex, temperature, temperatures, upper level winds, warm, warm sector, White Plains, Wild Wood, wills. Technical Discussions Add a comment