NY NJ PA Weather Forecasts

End of wintery pattern in site

8:07 AM
Premium Post
The pattern for February has certainly delivered as advertised, producing near record if not surpassing record snowfalls throughout the region.  However, like any other pattern, this pattern will come to an end and the clues to the pattern ending are already showing up.
– Weather When Posted –Temperature: 26°F;Humidity: 11%;Heat Index: 26°F;Wind Chill: 12°F;Pressure: [...]

Timing key for snowfall end of this week

9:40 PM
This evening, my focus is not going to be on any particular model, but on the overall pattern that will set up for Thursday through Saturday morning.
The 500 MB pattern is not one that is atypical for a major winter storm for the northern Mid Atlantic.  Unlike normal winter storm 500 MB set up, [...]

Eastern ridge return for next week, but for how long?

9:04 AM
Premium Content
There can be no doubt that change is in the air as the Arctic Oscillation relaxes and the Sub Tropical jet stream gets some breathing room to flex its muscles now.  The result of which is a pattern that by next week leads to a ridge moving through the East and a deep [...]

This storm missed, but another is on the way!

PREMIUM CONTENT
11:20 AM
This is what we call a close call!
It is pretty clear at this point that the Sub Tropical and Polar disturbances will phase too late and too far east to have much of an effect on the northern Mid Atlantic.  However, just take a look at how close this phase was to [...]

After morning showers, temperatures fall

7:20 AM
This morning, a strong disturbance is moving through central Pennsylvania producing rain and snow showers throughout the Philadelphia and New York City metropolitan areas.  As this disturbance is moving east, the surface trough is strengthening into a closed low that will produce a period of moderate snow over the central and northern Hudson Valley [...]

Evening Thoughts- (Part 2) a major storm possible and models back off warm idea

10:20 PM
Models have started to back off the Southeast ridge, large Polar Vortex over western Canada idea as of the 12Z runs.  The most notable change can be observed in the 12Z ECWMF.  In the previous days, in both 00Z and 12Z guidance, the ECMWF suggested the Polar Vortex would put an end to the [...]

Evening Thoughts- Snow storm this weekend?

9:26 PM
This evening there is a lot of excitement in the air as the model guidance has trended towards a scenario where at least light snow is possible for the northern Mid Atlantic from Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning.  The potential for this storm has actually be on the ECMWF and GFS for several days, [...]

Cloudy and damp conditions dominate the day

8:16 AM
The day before Thanksgiving is always a very busy travel day throughout the United States and especially for the New York City and Philadelphia metropolitan areas.  This year will be no different and the weather conditions over the next few days will have a major roll in traveling conditions.  Throughout this forecast, I leaned [...]

Evening Thoughts- something wicked this way comes

8:32 AM
While high pressure gains control tonight over the Mid Atlantic to provide excellent weather conditions over the next several days, trouble is brewing over the western Caribbean.  Tropical Depression Ida is reentering the warm Caribbean Sea this evening and is expected to strengthen back into a tropical storm by tomorrow afternoon.  Ida is expected [...]

Evening Thoughts- The start of an active pattern

7:23 PM

A cold front continues to slowly move to the east this evening and is approaching the Ohio Valley.  Note that the majority of the showers and thunderstorms along this cold front are focused over the southern Mississippi Valley where the strongest PVA is found, namely at the base of this trough.  Given the current [...]