Archive for delaware coast
Rainy today, warm this weekend!
Posted by: | Comments05/18/10 8:41 AM
This morning is the type of morning that you rather not get out of bed. Heavy rain is falling, travel is a pain, and the lack of sun just screams go back to bed. However, we all got things to do, so let’s get going!
The IR satellite picture this morning gives us an excellent view of the strong lifting that has developed along the coast. While the majority of the lifting is just off the New Jersey coast this morning, the edge of the strongest lifting is still producing moderate to heavy rain over much of New Jersey on east towards southern Connecticut and Long Island.
The upper low associated with the developing low pressure system off the Delaware Coast is still over the Ohio Valley, but is expected to lift north towards New England and open into a trough. I should note that the original idea of a closed low seems to have been the correct solution as the upper level lifting is clearing helping to enhance this low pressure system.
Steady moderate to heavy rain will continue along the coast through the day and into the evening as the surface low tracks towards the New England coastal waters. Further inland, the rain will be more scattered in nature, however overcast skies can still be expected. Winds will increase from the east and northeast through the day with winds up to 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph along the immediate coast. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches with an isolated amount up to 2 1/2 inches along the coast with lesser amounts under an inch away from the coast.
The low pressure system will begin to exit tonight with lingering showers through tomorrow. The upper level trough will linger over New England through tomorrow afternoon, keeping the threat of showers in the forecast through tomorrow afternoon. However, the showers will be widely scattered and most locations will remain dry.
Far better conditions are on the way for this weekend! High pressure will take hold by Wednesday night and remain in control, although east of the Philadelphia and New York City metropolitan area, through the weekend. Temperatures in the 70′s and 80′s will return for highs along with increasing humidity.
An upper level low will settle over the Mid Atlantic Sunday and Monday creating a threat for scattered showers and strong to severe thunderstorms in the afternoon hours for both days. High temperatures will strongly depend on whether a location will be impacted by these thunderstorms, however most locations will be in the 70′s or around 80 degrees depending on cloud cover. Overall, not a bad weekend at all!
For more details for your location, check out the seven day forecast!
-- Weather When Posted --
- Temperature: 48°F;
- Humidity: 81%;
- Heat Index: 48°F;
- Wind Chill: 42°F;
- Pressure: 30.08 in.;
Approaching warm front to linger through the week
Posted by: | Comments05/11/10 7:54 AM
After a cold start with temperatures in many locations bottomed out into the lower to mid 30′s for lows, a developing southerly wind will warm temperatures back into the 50′s and lower 60′s by this afternoon.
High pressure is slowly moving north and east of the Philadelphia and New York City metropolitan area this morning as a warm front over the Tennessee River Valley approaches the region. Clouds will increase through the day as winds veer to the southeast and south through the day. Overcast skies can be expected by the late afternoon hours with showers approaching the Philadelphia metropolitan area by late tonight.
The warm front is expected to stall just to the south of New Jersey as the high pressure system over New England will prevent the warm front from moving much further. As a result, an east to northeasterly wind will develop and mature over the northern Mid Atlantic late tonight through Friday morning, which will draw low level marine air from the Atlantic into the region. Waves of low pressure will travel along the stationary front through the period with areas of steady rainfall followed by variable clouds and drizzle. With the easterly fetch and overcast skies, temperatures will struggle in the 50′s both tomorrow and on Thursday.
The upper level disturbance and main surface low associated with this warm front will exit off the Delaware coast on Friday morning with showers lingering until the early afternoon hours followed by clearing skies. As skies clear, temperatures will be able to jump rapidly into the 60′s and 70′s by Friday afternoon.
High pressure will build in from the Ohio Valley on Friday evening and will remain in control through the weekend with clear skies and temperatures in the 60′s, 70′s, and potentially lower 80′s throughout the region.
For details for your location, check out the seven day forecast!
-- Weather When Posted --
- Temperature: 39°F;
- Humidity: 68%;
- Heat Index: 39°F;
- Wind Chill: 37°F;
- Pressure: 30.4 in.;
High pressure in control, but not for long
Posted by: | Comments04/23/10 3:58 PM
The visible satellite picture this afternoon certainly provides an excellent illustration of the main weather players for the next several days!
High pressure, as we can see to the left, has produced clear skies and temperatures in the lower to mid 60′s throughout the Philadelphia and New York City metropolitan area. The combination of low humidity and a weak breeze from the west-northwest has given the region very pleasant weather conditions.
A similar day can be expected tomorrow with clear skies and comfortable conditions. However, the pleasant conditions will be coming to an end relatively quickly.
Note that between the area of clear skies, that two mature areas of low pressure are present. The storm in the Atlantic will become the blocking mechanism of the negative NAO pattern that will slow the entire North American pattern down, especially from the Plains on east. Meanwhile, a warm front ever so slowly moves east-northeast towards the Mid Atlantic. This warm front and the associated low pressure system over the Plains will have a prolonged and significant impact on the northern Mid Atlantic starting on Saturday night.
By Saturday night, I expect clouds to increase as the warm front approaches, however most locations will remain dry until after midnight. Due to the blocking in the Atlantic, the warm front will stall over southern New Jersey, leading to periods of moderate to heavy rain from early Sunday morning on through Monday afternoon. The low pressure system over the Plains, meanwhile, will slowly track towards the Ohio Valley and then redevelop off the Delaware coast by Monday night.
The coastal low will provide another round of moderate to heavy rain Monday night through much of Tuesday morning before exiting into the Atlantic. The rainfall amounts from Saturday night on through Tuesday evening will exceed one inch throughout the northern Mid Atlantic with the potential for over two inches of rain in some locations where heavier downpours develop. I am very concerned about the threat for flash flooding of the rivers, streams, and urban locations with a particular focus on northeastern New Jersey and parts of Connecticut. There is also a minor threat of coastal flooding due to the persistent easterly fetch off the Atlantic, however I do not expect this to be a significant impact.
High pressure will take hold by Tuesday night with rapidly improving conditions by Wednesday. High pressure will take hold for the end of next week with temperatures warming to above normal levels with the potential for 70′s and even a few isolated 80′s on Friday.
For a detailed seven day forecast, go here!
-- Weather When Posted --
- Temperature: 66°F;
- Humidity: 27%;
- Heat Index: 66°F;
- Wind Chill: 65°F;
- Pressure: 29.85 in.;
Pesky disturbance keeps rain in the forecast
Posted by: | Comments04/22/10 4:00 PM
Yet another pesky disturbance is keeping the threat of showers in the forecast this evening.
A weak upper level disturbance associated with an upper low from the Polar jet stream is diving southeast towards the Mid Atlantic coast this afternoon with widely scattered showers. The majority of these showers are convective in nature and will weaken as the sun sets and temperatures cool. I expect the showers to begin to weaken significantly after 7 PM. With little if any impact on the region after 8 PM.
Otherwise, high pressure will take hold the next couple of days with clear skies and comfortable temperatures. Aside from some morning fog tomorrow morning, conditions will be rather pleasant with highs in the 60′s, possibly lower 70′s throughout the region. However trouble is brewing out west.
A strong upper low will be exiting the Rockies this evening and will move towards the Ohio Valley this weekend. A warm front associated with this low pressure system will stall just to the south of New Jersey on Saturday night and then slowly creep north on Sunday, producing periods of moderate to heavy rain throughout the region.
This low pressure system will be a rather slow moving system with periods of rain through the day on Monday and continuing on into Tuesday as the low pressure system finally exits off the Delaware coast. A persistent easterly wind over the region will keep a cool, raw marine air mass in place for both Sunday and Monday with highs struggling in the 50′s for most locations.
The low pressure system will exit on Tuesday afternoon with clearing skies. Rainfall amounts from the storm will range from one to two inches of rain with significant flash flooding concerns for several rivers, streams, and urban locations. Additionally, there is a minor threat for coastal flooding due to the persistent easterly flow into the inner bays throughout the New Jersey coast, Long Island Sound, and the Battery of New York City.
High pressure will take hold by Tuesday night with clearing conditions on Wednesday and excellent spring conditions by Thursday.
For a detailed seven day forecast, go here!
Dry conditions this weekend, significant flooding possible next week
Posted by: | Comments8:15 AM
I figure I start with good news this morning. This whole weekend with the exception of late on Sunday night will be dry with plenty of clear skies. No rain is expected and no significant impacts on outdoor activities will be experienced by the weather this weekend as long as you have a jacket. The bad news is that this won’t last long.
A very strong Sub Tropical disturbance is gaining strength over the southern Plains this morning and is expected to move towards the Tennessee Valley by Sunday evening. A surface low pressure system will also intensify over the Mid Atlantic coast and begin to impact the northern Mid Atlantic, specifically southern New Jersey, by late on Sunday night.
A strong southeasterly flow from the Atlantic will lead to periods of heavy rain, fog, gusty winds around 15 to 30 mph, and cool marine temperatures Monday through Wednesday morning. The storm will stall off the Delaware coast on Monday night through Tuesday with very heavy rainfall. Total rainfall amounts from this storm will range from 2 to 4 inches, which will produce significant flash flooding throughout the northern Mid Atlantic, but especially over much of northeastern New Jersey and the Hudson Valley were rivers are already significantly taxed from the previous rainfall events. The storm will also be capable of strong wind gusts over 40 mph, however unlike the previous storm, the pressure gradient should not be strong enough to produce wind gusts as strong as what was experienced in the previous storm. This storm will likely produce major flash flooding conditions, strong wind gusts, significant reduce visibility, and hamper transportation for Monday and Tuesday.
The low pressure system will exit by Wednesday afternoon with high pressure taking hold by Wednesday night. High pressure will remain in control through the end of the week and likely through next weekend with dry conditions, clear skies, and rapidly moderating temperatures. In fact, high temperatures by Friday through next weekend will likely push into the lower 70′s for many locations, so those begging for warm spring conditions, just hold on cause the warmth is on the way!
-- Weather When Posted --
- Temperature: 30°F;
- Humidity: 36%;
- Heat Index: 30°F;
- Wind Chill: 20°F;
- Pressure: 30.35 in.;
Rainy start to Friday leads to cool yet dry weekend
Posted by: | Comments6:15 AM
An area of low pressure over northern Virginia will continue to track east towards the Delaware coast by this afternoon. The rain associated with this low pressure system has been heavy at times over the Philadelphia metropolitan area, central New Jersey, and southern New Jersey.
The rain this morning is slowly ending from northwest to southeast with drying conditions expected by this afternoon as the low pressure system exits. Rainfall amounts of up to a half an inch is expected over northeastern Pennsylvania, the New York City metropolitan area, the Hudson Valley, and Connecticut with up to an inch of rain over the Philadelphia metropolitan area, central New Jersey, and southern New Jersey. Some wet snow may mix in at times over higher elevations, however I want to stress that any snow will not be a significant impact. In fact, given the strong dry air advection from the northwest, I doubt few will actually even see a snow flake, especially along the coast.
As the rain exits early this afternoon, high pressure will slowly build into the Philadelphia metropolitan area with clearing skies and the New York City metropolitan area by this evening. High pressure will remain in control through this weekend with dry conditions, however the cold Polar air mass in place will make temperatures feel like mid February rather than late March with highs struggling in the 30′s and 40′s and lows in the 20′s and 30′s through the weekend.
Another low pressure system will approach from the Tennessee Valley by late Sunday night with rain, heavy at times. Unlike this storm, a developing negative NAO pattern will cause blocking over the northwestern Atlantic, which will slow the progression of this low pressure system off the coast. As a result, the low pressure system is expected to impact the New York City and Philadelphia metropolitan area through Monday, Tuesday, and into Wednesday morning with rounds of showers and periods of steady, heavy rainfall. This low pressure system will be capable of strong easterly winds with gusts potentially exceeding 40 mph and sustained winds in the 15 to 30 mph range. While I don’t expect this storm to be as powerful as the storm from earlier this month, coastal flooding, wind damage, flash flooding especially over northeastern New Jersey, and potentially power outages will be a threat.
High pressure will return by late Wednesday and remain in control through next weekend. A significant warm up is expected by the end of next week with the chance for highs in the 70′s returning to start April. So the start of the baseball season may actually be pretty nice!
-- Weather When Posted --
- Temperature: 44°F;
- Humidity: 81%;
- Heat Index: 44°F;
- Wind Chill: 36°F;
- Pressure: 29.66 in.;
Rain on the way once again
Posted by: | Comments5:15 PM
Another round of moderate to heavy rain is on the way as an area of low pressure over the Tennessee Valley tracks to the Mid Atlantic coast tonight.
Steady rain over the eastern Great Lakes is associated with the warm front that is currently over the Mohawk River Valley and central Hudson Valley. The surface low pressure system is currently over Kentucky and will move towards the Delaware coast overnight. The steady rain over the Ohio Valley will move over the Philadelphia and New York City metropolitan area late tonight through tomorrow morning. The heaviest rainfall will be focused over central/southern New Jersey and the Philadelphia metropolitan area with up to an inch of rain. Lighter rainfall is expected to the north, including the New York City metropolitan area, with a tenth to a half inch of rain expected. The rain will produce minor flash flooding along the Passaic and Raritan Rivers through tomorrow afternoon. As the low pressure system exits, some snow will mix in at the very end over the higher interior. I want to stress that NO accumulation is expected and I doubt any snow will be seen along the coast as dry air will follow rapidly behind the falling temperatures, which will be in the 40′s along the coast.
High pressure will take hold on Friday night and remain in control through Sunday evening with dry conditions and scattered clouds. Temperatures will remain cool with highs struggling in the 30′s and 40′s for highs on Saturday and 40′s and 50′s on Sunday.
Another area of low pressure will bring another round of moderate to heavy rain late Sunday night through Tuesday morning as the low pressure system slowly exits. Another round of heavy rain will bring a continued threat of flash flooding to much of the northern Mid Atlantic but especially for northeastern New Jersey where the Passaic and Raritan Rivers are already near flood stages due to the previous rain events.
The good news is that moderate is on the way with high pressure taking hold by Tuesday night. High pressure will remain in control through the end of next week as a large upper level ridge builds throughout the eastern United States. At first, most locations along the coast will remain cool under a persistent northerly wind with marine influence. However, after Wednesday temperatures will be able to significantly modify with 60′s and 70′s by the end of the week.
-- Weather When Posted --
- Temperature: 60°F;
- Humidity: 51%;
- Heat Index: 60°F;
- Wind Chill: 59°F;
- Pressure: 29.77 in.;
Clearing skies and breezy conditions
Posted by: | Comments7:20 AM
A strong coastal low over the Gulf of Maine this morning will interact with high pressure over the Ohio Valley producing breezy conditions through the early afternoon hours as a strong pressure gradient will remains in place. Winds will range from 10 to 20 mph from the northwest with gusts to 30 mph at times through the afternoon hours. Otherwise, skies will slowly clear as dry air works in from the west into the Philadelphia and New York City metropolitan area.
High pressure will remain in control through tomorrow afternoon with dry conditions, scattered clouds, and temperatures averaging near normal in the 50′s and lower 60′s.
However, the next rain threat is already pushing into the southern Plains as a strong Sub Tropical disturbance comes east. This disturbance will interact with a cold front from the Polar jet stream. On Thursday night, clouds will rapidly increase followed by rain, heavy at times, late on Thursday night. This low pressure system will track from the Mississippi Valley towards the Delaware coast by Friday morning with steady rain expected throughout the region. The cold front will act force this low pressure system to exit quickly on Friday morning with rain ending from northwest to southeast along the cold front boundary. As the rain ends, snow will mix in over higher elevations however no significant accumulation is expected.
High pressure will return on Friday afternoon with clearing skies. Tranquil yet cool conditions will continue on Saturday and Sunday as the high pressure system moves overhead. However, another area of low pressure is expected to impact the northern Mid Atlantic on Monday with period of heavy rain which is expected to linger into Tuesday morning.
A significant warming trend is expected to develop Tuesday as a Pacific air mass moderates over the Ohio Valley. However, there is a threat of a back door cold front that may limit the extent of the warm air mass along the immediate coast. A significant thermal gradient is possible between the immediate coast and locations just inland.
-- Weather When Posted --
- Temperature: 44°F;
- Humidity: 60%;
- Heat Index: 44°F;
- Wind Chill: 37°F;
- Pressure: 29.73 in.;
Showers linger but the sun will come out tomorrow!
Posted by: | Comments5:46 PM
I know that now everyone will sing a course from Annie. Just trying to spend some sun shine so to speak.
The upper low that spawned a surface low over the Mid Atlantic last night is now slowly exiting into the Atlantic. However, before exiting, another round of moderate to heavy rain has developed along the immediate coast from southern/central New Jersey through Long Island, and southern Connecticut. As the upper low slowly exits to the east, the steady rain will come to an end with lingering showers up to around mid night for the entire Philadelphia and New York City metropolitan area.
High pressure currently over the Ohio Valley will briefly build into the northern Mid Atlantic late tonight through Thursday afternoon with clearing skies and temperatures averaging near normal. However, the dry conditions will not last long.
Another area of low pressure will approach from the Mississippi Valley and interact with a Polar disturbance over the Great Lakes. The combination of the two disturbances will produce a developing area of low pressure off the Delaware Coast by early Friday morning. Rain can be expected Thursday night through early Friday afternoon as the low pressure system drives to the northeast. As cold air works towards the coast, the rain will mix and change over to snow above 1000 feet with a minor accumulation possible above 1500 feet.
The air mass behind this exiting low pressure system will be rather cold with high temperatures struggling in the 30′s and 40′s on Saturday afternoon for highs. High pressure however will keep the New York City and Philadelphia metropolitan areas dry throughout the weekend with moderating temperatures by Sunday.
Another low pressure system will approach on Monday, however this low pressure system will move significantly slower with rain expected Monday and Tuesday along with a strong marine influence from the Atlantic keeping conditions cool and raw.
-- Weather When Posted --
- Temperature: 44°F;
- Humidity: 93%;
- Heat Index: 44°F;
- Wind Chill: 38°F;
- Pressure: 29.5 in.;
Low pressure on the way out, but one more round of rain expected
Posted by: | Comments4:30 PM
There are signs that the low pressure system that has brought over 3 inches of rain or more throughout the New York City and Philadelphia metropolitan area is finally starting to exit.
Pressure rises are being observed throughout the northern Mid Atlantic ranging from 1 to 3 MB per hour and the center of the low pressure system has weakened by rough 2 MB in the past hour up to 998 MB as of 4 PM. The upper and mid level low pressure systems are currently positioned off the Delaware Coast and slowly drifting south and east this afternoon. In particular, the 700 and 850 MB low pressure system are driving deep Atlantic moisture right into southern New England down through Delaware, leading to the development of widespread showers. These showers range in intensity from light rain and drizzle to a brief yet impressive heavy downpour. Overall, it is just plain wet and raw out side with temperatures in the 40′s and what seems to be no end in sight.
However, the pressure rises do tell us that the storm is ready to finally exit and as such the moisture advection off the Atlantic will slowly dissipate this evening and overnight. As the showers come to an end after midnight, the threat for fog, locally very dense, will be possible throughout the region but especially along the coast. The combination of light winds and plenty of low level moisture will support the potential for fog on Tuesday morning before drier air from the west can mix in. Afterwards, skies will clear by Tuesday afternoon with much warmer conditions expected with highs in the 50′s.
A quiet week is expected as high pressure remain in control through Saturday. Along with the tranquil weather will come moderating temperatures with the potential for highs in the lower to mid 60′s throughout the region. The Delaware River Valley stands the best chance for these warm conditions as down sloping winds allow for temperatures to warm more significantly than along the coast.
Another cold front is expected on Sunday night with periods of rain, heavy at times, and embedded thunderstorms. This cold front may pose the first true threat for isolated elevated severe thunderstorms capable of strong wind gusts and frequent lightning. The cold front will exit on Monday morning followed by clearing skies and cooler temperatures, however overall conditions for the start of next week will be much better than what has been seen at the start of this week.
-- Weather When Posted --
- Temperature: 42°F;
- Humidity: 86%;
- Heat Index: 42°F;
- Wind Chill: 34°F;
- Pressure: 29.61 in.;
Freehold
77°
Philadelphia
81°
Sussex
73°
Allentown
77°
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