NY NJ PA Weather Forecasts

Ocean storm brings rain/snow mix and some coastal flooding today

8:00 AM
The coastal low off the Virginia/North Carolina coastal waters this morning continues to slowly exit to the east-northeast this morning.  The coastal low actually has ended up slightly closer to the coast than expected, but is now moving into the Atlantic with diminishing impacts through the rest of the day.  However, much of the [...]

More thoughts on Friday’s threat

8:05 AM
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Up to this point, I’ve looked at a wide range of guidance for the event on Friday.  This morning I will share my initial thoughts and where I think the best potential for a heavy snowfall is possible.
– Weather When Posted –Temperature: 33°F;Humidity: 86%;Heat Index: 33°F;Wind Chill: 27°F;Pressure: 29.94 in.;

Major Storm on the horizon, what this means for the pattern

7:37 AM
A major storm is showing up on the model guidance over the past three model runs.  What does this storm mean for the pattern develop for the rest of the winter and what potential does this storm have for snow, ice, and rain for the northern Mid Atlantic?
– Weather When Posted –Temperature: 26°F;Humidity: 92%;Heat [...]

A brief moderation today before the return to cold and some snow

7:34 AM
This morning it is pretty obvious where the next area of low pressure system that will impact the northern Mid Atlantic currently resides.  A strong Arctic disturbance is now racing through the Mid West and western Great Lakes and will reach the Ohio Valley tonight.  This disturbance and the associated low pressure system will [...]

Models trend towards light snow for Friday

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10:08 PM
The disturbance that is currently dropping light to moderate snow over the central Plains and Mid West will eventually drive towards the Mid Atlantic coast tomorrow night and Friday morning.
The model guidance from the 12Z and 18Z model suites have trended towards a developing low pressure system off the New Jersey coast and [...]

Coastal storm comes to an end

6:45 AM
The coastal storm that has battered much of the New Jersey coast with significant flooding and has produced heavy rain along much of the coast is starting to wind down.  An inverted trough extending from the surface low pressure east of North Carolina continues to enhance low level forcing over much of the northern [...]

Ida weakens while models come to a consensus

4:03 PM
Ida has weakened significantly this morning and is now a strong tropical storm approaching the Mississippi/Alabama coast line.  The influence of the mid level disturbance to the west is apparent as strong southwesterly shear is tearing apart Ida and quickly weakening the tropical warm core mechanism of the storm.
The model guidance this afternoon has [...]

Evening Thoughts- The start of an active pattern

7:23 PM

A cold front continues to slowly move to the east this evening and is approaching the Ohio Valley.  Note that the majority of the showers and thunderstorms along this cold front are focused over the southern Mississippi Valley where the strongest PVA is found, namely at the base of this trough.  Given the current [...]

Elevation snow threat collapses, heavy rain along the coast

8:57 AM
Those that had sporting events last night, like the Yankees last night, mainly were spared the worst conditions due to high pressure strengthening over New England.  The high pressure strengthening combined with the low progression of the coastal low kept much of the heavy rain south of the Bronx, which allowed the Yankees to [...]

Stormy pattern returns as summer comes to a close

5:15 AM
As I look at the water vapor satellite images this morning along with the latest model guidance, I can’t help to wonder if these are future signs of what the upcoming fall and winter pattern.  While the Polar Jet stream is clearly focused over Canada, the weaker influences of the pattern on the eastern [...]