Delmarva | NY NJ PA Weather Forecasts

Heavy rain may produce urban flooding today

April 6th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

7:09 AM
A complex forecast is setting up for the forecast area this morning into the afternoon hours as a strong disturbance generates a new low pressure system to the southwest of the forecast area this morning.
Currently, the precipitation on the radar would likely not indicate much of a rainfall event for the forecast area. The [...]

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Rain racing towards the Northern Mid Atlantic

March 27th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

7:31 PM
A warm front over the Southeast is moving north towards the southern Mid Atlantic coast. A weak disturbance along the warm front is racing towards the DELMARVA Peninsula with an area of showers. The lifting associated with this disturbance is weakening, however along with overcast skies a few showers can be expected tonight into [...]

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A Close Call, But Not Close Enough

January 19th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

9:00 PM
All eyes this evening are over the Carolina’s where an intense area of low pressure is on the way to developing. A strong disturbance will dive towards the southeast coast and support the development of this strong area of low pressure, which will like produce snow over parts of Georgia, the Carolinas, and southern [...]

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Coastal Low Starting To Organize

January 18th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

7:47 PM
A coastal low is beginning to develop off the Mid Atlantic coast betwen the New Jersey coastal waters and the North Carolina coastal waters. Why the range? Well, I’ve checked several different sources that are very reliable, the E-wall from Penn State, the Plymouth State Website, and RAP-UCAR all with slightly different positions of [...]

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Virga Building, Carefully Monitoring

January 18th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

2:50 PM
If you are wondering why I am not shooting out rapid updates, it is because I am trying to be very careful in what I am seeing this afternoon.
Personally, the issue at hand is I don’t want to go off screaming snow storm developing and then it does. That would kill my credibility of [...]

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Careful Thoughts

January 18th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

1:15 PM
The past few hours sure have been interesting in model guidance and when looking at the observations.
Precipitation is breaking out over the Delmarva, Maryland, and beginning to develop all over Virginia. Pressure falls are still developing over the Southeast, but the primary low is still in the Great Lakes. As a result, warm air [...]

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Afternoon Thoughts

January 17th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

4:40 PM
I’m going to be heading out for the evening for a family event, but I want to leave some thoughts before I head out this evening.
Keep an eye on that moisture over south central PA. If that precipitation makes the jump over the mountains, that means that the mid level forcing is stronger than [...]

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Very Difficult Forecast Setting Up The Next Two Days

January 17th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

9:30 AM
I have been working hard on this forecast and taking the pros and cons of each model solution. The overall idea here is that for much of the forecast area, this entire set up is not much of a big deal as the brunt of the storm will miss the region. However, I have some [...]

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Come On Charlie Brown, I Won’t Pull Away The Football!

January 12th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

7:20 AM
Do you remember the cartoon where Lucy is holding the football and teasing Charlie Brown to come along and kick the ball. Charlie knows Lucy is just going to pull the ball away, but he goes with it anyway. This situation seems just like that!
Side tangent, if that happened today, Charlie could have sued [...]

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Low Officially Redeveloping Over The Delmarva Coast

January 10th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

5:24 PM
The latest observations clearly show that the low is redeveloping to the south and east of the forecast area. Pressures are falling, winds are turning northeast and north, and the surface and 850 MB temperatures have offically fallen over the past hour via the latest observations from Penn State E-wall.
As one person bluntly pointed [...]

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