Tag Archive for 'divergence' at NY NJ PA Weather Forecasts

Winter Returns, But Questions Remain

December 28th, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

10:22 AM
The up coming forecast for the middle and end of this week is going to be very difficult. The overall idea here on all model guidance is that the negative NAO block will be established while a series of clippers move through the forecast area. One clipper intensifies, and produces a strong Miller B [...]

Tags: accumulating snow, accumulation, amounts, area, Atlantic, blocking, cad, canada, clear skies, clipper, coast, cold, cold air, cold front, coming storm, confidence, confluence, continuation, convergence, cyclogenesis, delmarva, depiction, Disturbance, divergence, dives, ecmwf, england, extremes, forecast, forecast area, forecaster, forecasters, front, gfs, Great Lakes, greenland, guidance, high, Hudson Valley, intensification, intensity, Jets, low, lows, maximums, mid, Mid Atlantic, Model Guidance, models, moderate snow, moderation, nao, new england coast, north, Northeast, northeastern Pennsylvania, Northwest, northwester, Ohio, Pennsylvania, periods, Philadelphia, plains, precipitation, pretense, pva, quebec, Ridge, s, shortwave, showers, snow, snow showers, south, Southeast, southeastern canada, specifics, Storm, storms, surfaces, synoptic, systems, valleys, Virginia, waa, waves, weeke, western quebec, wills, Winter. Technical Discussions Add a comment

Stormy Sunday, But Not Snowy

November 26th, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

Yesterday there was a lot of excitement when the medium range model guidance, especially the ECMWF produced a rather snowy solution for the coastal storm on Sunday. Even with the exciting model output, I had my significant doubts on this system playing out due to some of the points I made, one of which was [...]

Tags: accumulation, Albany, Allentown, area, Atlantic, Atlantic City, Belmar, blocking, boundary layer, Bridgeport, cad, canadian maritimes, clipper, coast, coastal plain, Coastal Storm, cold, Connecticut, convergence, Disturbance, divergence, dives, doubts, east, ecmwf, england, ensembles, Fall, forecast, forecast area, forecaster, Freehold, frozen precipitation, gfs, guidance, Gulf Coast, Hartford, high, Islip, ladies and gentlemen, Long Island, low, lows, medium range, meteorology, mid, Model Guidance, model output, models, moisture, New Jersey, New York, New York City, Newark, normal, north, northeastern pa, Pennsylvania, periods, Philadelphia, plains, Poughkeepsie, precipitation, Rain, range model, Reading, s, Scranton, seasonal trends, shape, showers, sleet, snow, Storm, storms, sunday afternoon, Sussex, systems, temperature, temperatures, Trough, troughs, upper level divergence, Virginia, virginia coast, west, White Plains, Wild Wood, wills. Technical Discussions 1 Comment

Components For A Northeast Snow Storm

November 23rd, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

I know there is a lot of excitement for the model runs over the past couple of days. There has been plenty of rumors of potential storms and very impressive arctic out breaks. However, ahead of the hysteria and excitement that we are all feeling (cause let’s face it, the winters the past 3 years [...]

Tags: advection, Alabama, alabama gulf coast, Albany, Allentown, amounts, amplification, area, Atlantic, Atlantic City, atmosphere, axis, Belmar, Boston, Bport, cad, canada, cold, confluence, Connecticut, convergence, couple of days, cyclogenesis, discussion, Disturbance, divergence, east, england, explaination, extremes, Fall, forecast, forecast area, forecaster, Freehold, front, Great Lakes, Hartford, high, hysteria, intensity, Islip, Jets, likelihood, Long Island, low, lows, Mexico, Michigan, mid, Mid Atlantic, Mississippi, models, moderation, moisture, nao, New Jersey, New York, New York City, Newark, north, north atlantic oscillation, north observation, Northeast, northern new england, observations, Ohio, Pennsylvania, periods, Philadelphia, plains, Poughkeepsie, precipitation, quebec, Rain, Reading, Ridge, s, Scranton, snow, snow storm, snowfall, south, Southeast, southeastern ontario, Southern New England, southwestern quebec, Storm, storm track, storms, Sussex, systems, temperature, temperatures, Tropical, tropics, Trough, Vermont, warm, Washington, west, White Plains, Wild Wood, wills, Winter. Technical Discussions Add a comment

Cold Front, Potential Coastal, And The Developing Deep Freeze

November 20th, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

We are heading towards the finish line for November (wow, this month went fast), and all signs continue to point to some interesting potential for the forecast area through the Thanksgiving week.
First lets deal with the end of the weekend, which will be dry yet very cold on Sunday. Temperatures will continue to average [...]

Tags: Albany, Allentown, area, Atlantic, Atlantic City, atmosphere, Belmar, blocking, Bridgeport, brunt, coastal development, cold, cold air, cold front, Connecticut, continuation, cyclogenesis, Disturbance, divergence, ecmwf, england, evenings, Fall, few days, finish line, forecast, forecast area, forecaster, Freehold, front, gfs, Hartford, high, Islip, Long Island, low, lows, maa, Maine, mid, Mid Atlantic, models, monday tuesday, New England, New Jersey, New York, New York City, Newark, normal, north, north ohio, Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, plains, Poughkeepsie, precipitation, precipitation event, primar, Rain, Reading, Scranton, showers, signs, slides, snow, snow lovers, southwesterly winds, Storm, storms, Sussex, systems, temperature, temperatures, thanksgiving, time frame, transition, transitions, west, White Plains, Wild Wood, wills, windy. Technical Discussions Add a comment

Foggy Start Will Lead To Very Warm Conditions This Afternoon, Changes On The Way

November 14th, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

As you can see with the title, there is a lot of topics to cover over as we look at the next three days.
Dense fog will slowly burn off through the morning, but visibility will likely remain below a mile in many locations through at least mid morning. The fog is certainly an indication of [...]

Tags: Albany, Allentown, amounts, area, Atlantic City, atmosphere, Belmar, Bridgeport, clouds, cloudy day, cold, Connecticut, continuation, dense fog, divergence, east, er, evenings, Fall, flooding, floods, forecast, forecaster, Freehold, front, Great Lakes, gulf of, gusts, Hartford, high, Islip, Jets, level jet, lightning, Long Island, low, lows, Maine, mb wind, Mexico, mid, moisture, New Jersey, New York, New York City, Newark, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Poughkeepsie, precipitation, Rain, Rainfall, Reading, s, saturday afternoon, saturday evening, Scranton, strong wind, Sussex, temperature, temperatures, thunderstorm, thunderstorms, upper level winds, warm, water vapor, west, White Plains, Wild Wood, wills, windy. Technical Discussions Add a comment

Sunshine Today, Rain Through Saturday

November 12th, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

High pressure will hold on for one more day before giving way to the significant moisture surge developing over the Mississippi Valley and Southeast. Clouds will slowly increase through the day, initially with high level stratus and some cirrus to eventually mid to low level stratus by this evening. As the high pressure system moves [...]

Tags: Albany, Allentown, area, Atlantic City, Belmar, Bridgeport, cirrus, cloudy skies, cold, cold front, Connecticut, continuation, Disturbance, divergence, east, england, evenings, forecast, forecast area, forecaster, Freehold, friday evening, friday morning, front, gusts, Hartford, horizontal plains, Islip, Long Island, lows, Maine, mid level, Mississippi, Mississippi Valley, moderate rainfall, moderation, moisture, moisture surge, New Jersey, New York, New York City, Newark, Northeast, northeastern virginia, Pennsylvania, periods, Philadelphia, plains, Poughkeepsie, precipitation, Rain, Rainfall, Reading, s, saturday afternoon, Scranton, south, Southeast, southeasterly wind, southwesterly winds, subsidence, sunshine, surprise, Sussex, systems, thermal gradient, thunderstorm, thunderstorms, Trough, upper level winds, Virginia, White Plains, Wild Wood, wills, windy. Technical Discussions Add a comment

Very Heavy Rains On The Way

November 11th, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

This week is certainly going to end on the very wet side as a storm gets it’s act together over the eastern third of the nation through Saturday morning.
I’m going to jump right to Thursday afternoon. The most interesting aspect of this period is the small yet intense southern branch disturbance that moves from the [...]

Tags: Albany, Allentown, area, Atlantic, Atlantic City, Belmar, Bridgeport, cold, cold front, Connecticut, cyclogenesis, Disturbance, divergence, eastern Pennsylvania, england, evenings, forecast, forecast area, forecaster, Freehold, front, Gulf Coast, Gulf of Mexico, Hartford, heavy rain, heavy rains, Hudson Valley, intensification, intensity, Islip, Jets, lifting, Long Island, lows, Mexico, Mid Atlantic, mid level, moisture, New Jersey, New York, New York City, Newark, Pennsylvania, periods, Philadelphia, Poughkeepsie, precipitation, Rain, rain event, Rainfall, Rainfall Amounts, Reading, saturday afternoon, saturday morning, Scranton, Storm, storms, Sussex, thermal gradient, thursday afternoon, upper level divergence, wet side, White Plains, Wild Wood, wills. Technical Discussions Add a comment

Wet And Windy End Of The Week

November 10th, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

The closer we get to this pattern change for this coming week, the more the models have changed and twisted the forecasted outcome. This time, the GFS keeps the two disturbances separated and produces a coastal storm on Thursday evening, although weak, and then the stronger cold front on Friday.
So the question is the [...]

Tags: air mass, Albany, Allentown, area, Atlantic City, Belmar, Bridgeport, Coastal Storm, cold, cold air, cold front, colder temperatures, Connecticut, delmarva peninsula, Disturbance, divergence, elevation, evenings, Fall, forecast, forecast area, forecaster, Freehold, front, gfs, Great Lakes, Gulf of Mexico, Hartford, intensification, Islip, last friday, lifting, Long Island, lows, Mexico, models, moisture, New Jersey, New York, New York City, Newark, Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Poughkeepsie, precipitation, Rainfall, Reading, s, Scranton, shape, Storm, storm track, storms, Sussex, temperature, temperatures, thursday afternoon, Trough, warm, White Plains, Wild Wood, wills, windy, windy conditions. Technical Discussions Add a comment