NY NJ PA Weather Forecasts

Significant flooding event expected for this weekend

4:25 PM
The storm is starting to organize over the Plains, Gulf Coast, and Southeast.  The model guidance at this point is in very strong agreement for a widespread heavy rainfall starting tomorrow afternoon and continuing on through Sunday morning with rainfall amounts by Monday morning ranging from 2 inches to as much as 5.5 inches [...]

Complicated and stormy pattern coming to light

7:42 AM

A cold front that will be a major focal point for storm development later this week is currently moving through the New York City metropolitan area this morning.  This cold front is producing a few scattered showers, especially over the Hudson Valley, however no significant precipitation is expected.  The [...]

Evening Thoughts- Heavy rain and maybe more

9:58 PM
Once again, there is a lot to talk about this evening in terms of the approaching cold front, the associated upper level trough, and we can’t forget Hurricane Bill.
Hurricane Bill as of 5 PM this afternoon has weakened into a category 3 hurricane, however this is in relative terms compared to earlier strength.  Hurricane [...]

Strong thunderstorms on the move, more to come later

7:18 AM
There’s a lot to discuss this morning, so lets dive right into it!
An impressive line of thunderstorms has developed early this morning in response to the strong low level jet stream at 950 and 850 MB this morning.  The warm front continues to lift north and eastward, but is having some difficulty doing so [...]

Active weather pattern continues for this week

7:28 AM
The weather pattern for this summer certainly is developing an active characteristic as yet another week of persistent threats of showers and thunderstorms can be expected. 
There are a lot of interesting features to examine on the water vapor this morning, so lets dive right in!  A trough over the Canadian Maritimes continues to slowly [...]

Active spring pattern continues

8:26 AM
The Spring pattern that has brought a noticeable increase in precipitation over much of the forecast area, and that pattern will continue through the end of this week and through this weekend. 
Note the map to the left.  I labeled the “storm track” but not the jet stream pattern.  The reason why is because the [...]

Fog will burn away, severe weather on the way

7:40 AM
The latest visible satellite image clearly shows that fog has developed throughout much of the forecast area with dense fog advisories issued for much of the region.  The dense fog has developed due to a combination of lingering low level moisture from a few showers early this morning and very light winds.  The good [...]

Spring showers return for end of the week

6:47 AM
The main phrase to describe the pattern for the end of this week and into next weekend is progressive.  There are no sustained troughs that will drive the pattern, instead troughs will dive into the West and lift northeastward into the eastern Great Lakes.  This type of pattern produces fast moving low pressure system [...]

Mild and stormy pattern begins to take hold

6:53 AM
The cool and quiet regime will officially come to an end in this period.  A series of disturbances will begin to carve a trough that at first centered over the Tennessee Valley and end up over the Southwestern United States by early next week.  A strong low pressure system and slow, moisture loaded cold [...]

A Discussion On Mesoscale Dynamics And Impacts Along The Coast

2:54 PM
I’ve been diving into the mesoscale models the past two hours to get a handle on how and where the mesoscale forcing will set up for tonight through Monday afternoon.  
The features I wanted to look at is the frontogenesis from the surface to 700 MB, the track of the 850 MB low, and [...]