NY NJ PA Weather Forecasts

Got to know when to hold them, know when to fold them

9:30 PM
Yes, I love Kenny Rogers too and one of my favorite songs is The Gambler!
“You got to know when to hold ‘em, know when to fold ‘em.

Know when to walk away, know when to run
You never count your money, when you’re sittin’ at the table.
There’ll be time enough for countin’, when the dealin’s done.”
Well, [...]

Tracking the MJO- influence on the long range forecast

9:40 AM
The MJO is on the move and bless the models, they are trying to handle that tricky feature as best as it can.  Let’s take a look at where the MJO is today and where I think it is going.
– Weather When Posted –Temperature: 28°F;Humidity: 58%;Heat Index: 28°F;Wind Chill: 16°F;Pressure: 29.75 in.;

Tropical Weather Update for Saturday, June 20 2009

6:45 Am
Once again, the Tropical Atlantic remains quiet as El Nino conditions are already dominating much of the Atlantic.  Strong westerly to southwesterly shear remain over the Caribbean to the coast of Africa, which is inhibiting any disturbance from developing.  Meanwhile, dry air via high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico is producing clear skies. [...]

Tropical Weather Update for Friday, June 19 2009

6:44 AM
The Tropical Atlantic remains quiet this morning with no sign of development in any location.  Strong southwesterly to westerly shear dominates the central Caribbean to the African coast, which will continue to inhibit any type of potential development through the weekend.  As for the Gulf of Mexico, dry air behind a cold front has [...]

Tropical Weather Update for Thursday, June 18 2009

8:15 AM

The one good aspect of El Nino this summer is that development of tropical systems continues to be inhibited by strong westerly shear and a lack of any organized disturbances.  Strong westerly and southwesterly shear dominates the central and wester Caribbean and over the western Tropical Atlantic.  The combination of a trough over northern [...]

Tropical Weather Update for Wednesday, June 17 2009

6:52 AM
The westerly wind shear that has dominated much of the Tropical Atlantic this month has weakened to the point this morning where many locations are not under the influence of this inhibiting factor.  However, the lack of disturbances off the African coast and little to no potential disturbances elsewhere continues to keep the Tropical [...]

Tropical Update for Monday, June 15 2009

7:21 AM
There is little change in the overall upper level environment through out the Tropical Atlantic as strong shear continues to dominate.  As a result, no significant development has been observed and none is expected over the next 48 hours.  A weak disturbance along an old cold front boundary over the western Caribbean will need [...]

Tropical Weather Update for Sunday, June 14, 2009

8:53 AM
There have been no changes in the environment throughout the Tropical Atlantic over the past 24 hours.  Strong shear remains a dominant characteristic throughout the tropical Atlantic this morning with little indication of change in the upper level environment.  There is an interesting feature over the western Caribbean this morning.  A weak disturbance along [...]

Showers remain a threat as humid conditions dominant

10:10 AM
The type of pattern the forecast area is being influenced by is at times difficult to forecast for in terms of timing showers and thunderstorms as there are several factors that mixing the atmosphere.  For one, take a look at the latest visible satellite image.  
The stationary front over the southern Mid Atlantic, is [...]

Tropical Weather Update for Thursday, June 11 2009

7:55 AM
While the upper low over the central Tropical Atlantic is no more, a strong westerly shear dominates much of the region with no development expected over the next three days.  A trough over the Caribbean Sea is producing strong southwesterly shear from Cuba on through the Leeward Islands.  Meanwhile, disturbances coming off the African [...]