Tag Archive for 'dominance' at NY NJ PA Weather Forecasts

Troubling Trends

January 6th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

9:40 PM
There are some indications that I’ve seen in the past hour that has me a bit worried about significant ice for central, western, and northern New Jersey and much of eastern Pennsylvania.
At this point, most model guidance had the low level cold air pushed out of central and southern New Jersey and warm air [...]

Tags: area, cad, circulation, cold, cold air, continuation, Delaware, delaware river, different story, Disturbance, dominance, dominants, east, east wind, eastern Pennsylvania, far south, Freehold, guidance, high, ice, low, lows, Maryland, metros, Model Guidance, models, Newark, north, northern maryland, Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, philadelphia metro, Ridge, significant influence, signs, south, surface circulation, surfaces, Trenton, waa, warm, west, worries. Technical Discussions 1 Comment

Discussion on the 12Z Model Guidance

January 5th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

3:30 PM
The 12Z GFS and ECMWF are out and both do not show any type of storm for next Saturday, but just a simple yet moisture filled cold front passage. Why?
Well, it’s all at 500 MB that gives us the answer! In the 00Z guidance on Thursday night and Friday, a southern branch disturbance phases [...]

Tags: 12z gfs, area, branch energy, coast, cold, digs, discussion, Disturbance, dominance, east, East Coast, ecmwf, Energy, forecast, forecast area, forecaster, forecasters, front, gfs, Great Lakes, guess, guidance, high, high resolution, insane idea, insanity, interaction, low, lows, Model Guidance, models, moderate snow, moderation, moisture, New England, north, Ohio, resolution data, s, snow, snowfall, south, Southwest, Storm, storm track, storms, surfaces, thursday night, Trough, ups, weeke, wills. Technical Discussions Add a comment

The January Outlook

January 1st, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

7:40 PM
December has come and gone along with all the holiday cheer, it’s time to look to see what the rest of January holds for the forecast area. Will the negative NAO be a major factor? Will the Pacific get back into the game or will January be a warm and boring month?
The basic idea [...]

Tags: alaska, Albany, Allentown, amplification, anomalies, Atlantic, Atlantic City, atlantic sst, atmosphere, Belmar, blocking, Bridgrt, canada, clipper, clippers, coast, cold, Connecticut, continuation, digs, Disturbance, dominance, epo, extreme cold, extremes, forecast, forecast area, forecaster, forecasters, Freehold, game, games, guidance, Hartford, high, higher latitudes, Hudson Valley, ice, interaction, Islip, latitude, Long Island, low, lows, mid, models, nao, New Jersey, New York, New York City, Newark, north, North America, north pole, northern asia, Ohio, pacific waters, Pennsylvania, periods, Philadelphia, Poughkeepsie, Rain, relaxation, Ridge, Rockies, Scranton, sea surface temperatures, signature, slides, snow, snowfall, Southeast, Southwest, sst, state of flux, Storm, storms, stratosphere, surfaces, Sussex, temperature, temperatures, Trenton, troposphere, tropospheric temperatures, Trough, troughs, upper atmosphere, valleys, warm, weeke, White Plains, Wild Wood, wills, Winter, winter events. Technical Discussions Add a comment

Windy End To 2008

December 31st, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

7:47 AM
The new coastal low pressure system is really starting to take shape right over southern New Jersey and the immediate coastal waters, specifically around Atlantic City.
Through the rest of today, rain and snow showers will change over to all snow showers throughout the entire forecast area. Temperatures will fall through the afternoon through the [...]

Tags: accumulation, Albany, Allentown, amounts, area, Atlantic, Atlantic City, Belmar, Bridgeport, chills, clipper, coast, coastal waters, cold, cold start, Connecticut, current pacific, digits, dominance, evening hours, evenings, Fall, forecast, forecast area, forecaster, forecasters, Freehold, Hartford, Islip, Long Island, low, lows, moisture, nao, New Jersey, New York, New York City, Newark, oportunity, Pennsylvania, periods, Philadelphia, Poughkeepsie, pressure gradient, Rain, rain and snow, rain showers, s, Scranton, shape, showers, snow, snow showers, south, specifics, Storm, storms, Strong Winds, Sussex, systems, temperature, temperatures, transition, transitions, Trenton, White Plains, wills, windy. Technical Discussions Add a comment

Tricky Forecast, To Snow Or Not To Snow

December 30th, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

7:55 AM
Going into this period, I was hoping that model guidance would improve in sheilding some light on the events that will play out on Friday. To some extent, the guidance has given me a better idea of what to expect here. The general consencious is that the clipper to drive towards the Great Lakes [...]

Tags: Albany, Allentown, area, Atlantic City, Belmar, blocking, boundary layer, Bridgrt, clipper, coast, Coastal Storm, cold, cold friday, Connecticut, delmarva, delmarva coast, delmarva peninsula, discussion, Disturbance, dives, dominance, east, eastern Long Island, ecmwf, Energy, energy transfers, epo, extent, ey, forecast, forecast area, forecaster, forecasters, Freehold, friday afternoon, friday evening, friday morning, Great Lakes, guidance, Hartford, initial boundary, initial position, intensity, Islip, Long Island, low, lows, mid, Milliville, mistake, Model Guidance, models, moderation, nao, New JersSussex, New York, New York City, Newark, normal, north, Ohio, Pennsylvania, periods, Philadelphia, Poughkeepsie, precipitation, presence, pumps, pva, Rain, Ridge, s, Scranton, showers, sleet, snow, snow showers, snowfall, south, Storm, storms, surfaces, surprise, temperature, temperatures, Trenton, valleys, Virginia, weeke, west, White Plains, Wild Wood, wills, windy. Technical Discussions Add a comment

12Z Thoughts And The Friday Evening Winter Event

December 28th, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

4:09 PM
I’m sure everyone has seen the latest 12Z guidance. The GFS is having trouble with the upper level features and the ECMWF is beginning to strut it’s stuff in the type 3 to 7 day span of dominance of accuracy.
Do I believe the ECMWF, well to an extent yes. I don’t want to put [...]

Tags: Albany, Allentown, area, Atlantic, Atlantic City, bombs, Boston, cad, central Pennsylvania, city metro, clipper, coast, coastal plain, cold, Connecticut, continuation, Disturbance, dominance, east, ecmwf, england, eve, evenings, extent, Fall, forecast, forecaster, forecasters, Freehold, front, gfs, greenland, guidance, Hartford, high, horses, Hudson Valley, important factors, intensification, Islip, Jets, level features, light snow, Long Island, low, lows, maximums, mb level, mid, Model Guidance, models, moderate snow, moderation, nam, New Jersey, New York, New York City, Newark, north, northern pennsylvania, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, plains, Poughkeepsie, precipitation, pva, Ridge, s, Scranton, Shear, snow, south, span, specifics, Storm, storm track, storms, surfaces, Sussex, thermal gradient, thursday morning, tights, type 3, ukmet, valleys, Virginia, wills, Winter, winter storm, wrf. Technical Discussions Add a comment

Active Pattern Developing While Models Have A Difficult Job Ahead

December 27th, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

12:54 PM
Or maybe I should say meteorologist like me who are shaking their heads while looking at the model guidance. When we have a difficult pattern unfolding, the best thing to do is not get bogged down with details of rain/snow lines and what not.
Let’s think about this set up for a second.
One, [...]

Tags: amounts, area, Atlantic, blocking, bust, busts, canada, clipper, clippers, coastal plain, coastal waters, cold, cold air mass, confidence, continuation, delware, dominance, doubts, east, eastern canada, eve, evenings, forecast, forecast area, forecaster, forecasters, friday evening, friday night, greenland, guidance, high, ice, intensity, isentropic, job, lifting, low, lows, meteorologist, mid, Mid Atlantic, Model Guidance, models, nao, New England, newfoundland, north, Northeast, northwestern canada, Ohio, pacific northwest, periods, plains, precipitation, Rain, rain snow, Ridge, s, significant snow, snow, snow and ice, soundings, south, Storm, storms, synoptic, systems, transition, transitions, Trough, valleys, weeke, west, wills. Technical Discussions Add a comment

Warm Weekend Ahead, Enjoy It While You Can

December 26th, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

7:59 AM
The weather will be no excuse this weekend on whether retail sales will be up or down, that’s for sure! The upper level pattern at this current time has the storm track well north and west of the forecast area. The negative NAO is still developing and the current block is not in place [...]

Tags: Albany, Allentown, area, Atlantic City, atmosphere, Belmar, blocking, Bport, caa, clouds, cloudy skies, cold, cold front, Connecticut, continuation, crash, current time, degree drop, dominance, eastern greenland, er, evening hours, evenings, excelerate, excuse, forecast, forecast area, forecaster, forecasters, Freehold, front, greenland, Hartford, high, interaction, Islip, late evening, Long Island, low, lows, nao, New Jersey, New York, New York City, Newark, normal, normal temperatures, north, norther, northwester, Pennsylvania, periods, Philadelphia, Poughkeepsie, precipitation, Reading, retail sales, Ridge, risk, s, scattered showers, Scranton, showers, Storm, storm track, storms, sunday afternoon, sunday evening, Sussex, systems, temperature, temperatures, waa, warm, warm atmosphere, warm sector, weather, west, White Plains, Wild Wood, wills. Technical Discussions Add a comment

A Break In The Pattern, Not Broken Pattern

December 10th, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

As the storm races towards the Canadian Maritimes, cold air will rush into the forecast area once again with temperatures falling back to slightly below to near normal conditions for the weekend. However, there are larger changes going on at 500 MB.
The overall 500 MB pattern will briefly readjust with a trough over the West [...]

Tags: Albany, Allentown, area, Atlantic City, atmosphere, Belmar, Bport, briefly, canada, coast, cold, cold air, Connecticut, dominance, dominant feature, east, East Coast, Fall, few days, forecast, forecast area, forecaster, Freehold, greenland, guidance, Hartford, high, interesting times, Islip, Long Island, low, lows, medium range, Model Guidance, models, moderation, New Jersey, New York, New York City, Newark, normal, normal temperatures, north norther, northern canada, november 15, pacific northwest, Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, pna, Poughkeepsie, Reading, Ridge, s, saturday and sunday, Scranton, south, southeastern canada, Storm, storms, stratosphere, stratospheric data, surprise, Sussex, temperature, temperatures, Trough, waa, warm, west, west coast, White Plains, Wild Wood, wills. Technical Discussions Add a comment

Winter Storm Discussion And Thoughts

December 8th, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

There is a lot to discuss with this winter storm for Thursday evening through Friday and let me tell you, I had a hard time sleeping with all the thoughts running through my head. So let’s dive in and get started.

First, I think it is important to discuss the trends of the models. I’m not [...]

Tags: Albany, Allentown, amounts, area, Atlantic, Atlantic City, Belmar, Bport, caa, clipper, clippers, coast, coastal plain, cold, cold air, cold bias, confluence, Connecticut, continuation, convergence, discussion, Disturbance, dives, dominance, east, East Coast, ecmwf, england, evenings, Fall, forecast, forecaster, Freehold, front, gfs, guidance, hard time, Hartford, high, Islip, Jets, Long Island, low, lows, map, meteorologist, Mexico, mid, Model Guidance, models, nao, New Jersey, New York, New York City, Newark, north, north norther, orientation, Pennsylvania, periods, Philadelphia, plains, Poughkeepsie, precipitation, Rain, rain snow, Reading, relaxation, reloading, Ridge, Scranton, sleet, snow, snow line, south, Storm, storms, Sussex, systems, temperature, temperatures, thoughts running through my head, thursday night, Trenton, Trough, troughs, two areas, waa, warm, watches, west, White Plains, Wild Wood, wills, wind pattern, Winter, winter storm. Technical Discussions 1 Comment