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Tag Archive for 'doubts'

Arctic Express On The Way Along With More Snow Potential

7:49 AM
The theme going forward will likely crush the forecast for anyone going for a warm January.  The combination of a strong negative EPO and the postion of the upper low over eastern Canada will support a very cold air mass to dive into the eastern two-thirds of the nation. 
There can be no doubt that [...]

This Pattern, More Than Meets The Eye

7:51 AM
Taking a look at the pattern via surface maps, the potential and interest in the pattern through this weekend into next week would best be described as boring, especially the GFS.  However, if one was to look at 500 MB, they would come away with a totally different perspective on this pattern that is [...]

The 12Z Guidance And Thoughts For Friday

8:59 PM
If you put your ear to the ground, you could hear the fall of a million snow lovers faint to the ground after seeing the 12Z GFS, which basically if taken verbatum would produce a significant snowfall for most of the forecast area, save southern New Jersey (even that location would still get measureable [...]

Active Pattern Developing While Models Have A Difficult Job Ahead

12:54 PM
Or maybe I should say meteorologist like me who are shaking their heads while looking at the model guidance.  When we have a difficult pattern unfolding, the best thing to do is not get bogged down with details of rain/snow lines and what not.  
Let’s think about this set up for a second.  
One, [...]

The Road To Snow And Cold

8:24 AM
The pattern in this period will be evolving into a cold and very storm pattern.  In this post I will naturally explain the step down into what will make a lot of individuals in the I-95 corridor very happy, if you like snow at least.  Then I will touch upon my thoughts for the [...]

Hudson Valley and Connecticut In For A Long Day

8:45 AM
While we keep an eye on developments along the coast, snow is beginning to fall over much of the Hudson Valley and Connecticut.  The snow is currently associated with the primary low over the Great Lakes, however the coastal low, which is form off the Virginia coast, will begin to “back build” precipitation over [...]

Significant Snow And Ice Storm Developing Over Interior

The main story this morning is obviously the sleet and freezing rain that is falling over northeastern Pennsylvania, the Hudson Valley, and the higher elevations of northern New Jersey.  The model guidance appears to be a little slow in the advance of the low level cold air as trends continue to suggest the freezing line, [...]

Close Call By Disturbance Today, But Main Event Is Thursday

I know everyone in the forecast area that loves weather are probably clued to what they are seeing over the Carolina’s on the radar image.  Yes, that’s one little nasty disturbance that was NOT forecasted by the model guidance turning the corner.  A surface low is developing along the Gulf Stream to the east of [...]

Cold, Wintery, And Very Difficult Forecast Period

Making this forecast has been and will continue to be very difficult.  I want to touch on some important themes with the pattern as a whole and the state of the model guidance before diving into the actual forecast.
I believe we are about to enter a significant cold, and stormy pattern for much of the [...]

Stormy Sunday, But Not Snowy

Yesterday there was a lot of excitement when the medium range model guidance, especially the ECMWF produced a rather snowy solution for the coastal storm on Sunday.  Even with the exciting model output, I had my significant doubts on this system playing out due to some of the points I made, one of which was [...]