Doubts | NY NJ PA Weather Forecasts

MJO continues to throw off everyone

January 16th, 2010 by Steven DiMartino

10:50 AM
PREMIUM CONTENT
If anyone has doubts that medium and long range forecasting is a difficult task, take a look at what the MJO has done the past few days. Yes, that lovely feature that helps drive the Sub Tropical Jet stream has produce a nice loop on itself, falling into a state of near non-influence [...]

Tags: air mass, aleutian islands, arctic air, arctic oscillation, doubts, East Coast, ecmwf forecast, favorable environment, gfs, Great Lakes, gulf of alaska, mjo, Model Guidance, northwestern canada, phase 5, Polar Jet Stream, southern canada, stratosphere, Trough, wave development. Technical Discussions Closed

Evening Thoughts

October 29th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

9:30 PM
The water vapor satellite image this evening clearly shows our next developing storm over the southern Plains. A strong ridge, centered over the Southeast coast with a ridge axis through the Tennessee Valley. The northern Mid Atlantic remains on the relatively cool side of this ridge, however warmer air is on the way, especially [...]

Tags: aleutian islands, continuity, cool side, doubts, eastern asia, Gulf of Mexico, late saturday night, Mid Atlantic, Model Guidance, pva, Rainfall, ridge axis, satellite image, saturday afternoon, Southeast Coast, sunday afternoon, Tennessee Valley, upper level trough, viable idea, water vapor satellite. Technical Discussions Closed

A break in the wet weather today, but more rain on the way

June 19th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

7:15 AM
As low pressure exits the forecast area this morning, a brief break in the clouds and rainfall can be expected through the day. In case anyone forgot, that big bright ball in the sky is called the sun, and no we are not in Seatlle. Weak high pressure over the eastern Great Lakes will [...]

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High pressure gives way as rain is on the way

June 17th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

7:27 AM
The pleasant weather conditions from yesterday are about to come to an end. So is my confidence in model guidance, by the way. However, before I get to that, let’s take a look at the precipitation that is charging towards the forecast area.
High pressure currently centered over eastern Connecticut and Rhode Island, will continue [...]

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Marine air mass keeps region cool through next week

March 20th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

7:21 AM
The model guidance has really come into strong agreement over the past 24 hours with respect to the overall upper level pattern and the development of surface features through the middle of next week. There are two key players that will drive the up coming pattern for the CONUS. The first is the strong [...]

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Cold Air Returns, But Not For Long

March 9th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

6:18 AM
The end of the week is expected to be rather quiet, but rather chilly for the middle of March. A strong cold front will exit the forecast area on Wednesday night with strong Canadian high pressure building into the region from the northern Plains. At 500 MB, a strong upper low located at 50 [...]

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Major Changes And The Reasons Behind Them

February 28th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

8:47 AM
An extremely rare and extremely difficult forecast is evolving for the forecast area this morning. In previous posts, I stated my doubts of a heavy snowfall as a perfect track with perfect timing was going to be needed to produce a significant snowfall along the coast. The model guidance and more importantly, the atmosphere [...]

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What Can Lead To A Potential Snow Storm On Sunday Night?

February 27th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

9:01 PM
There’s a lot of talk about the potential for a snow storm on Sunday night into Monday. As many of you know, I have not been all that impressed with the potential for a snow storm from this set up. My main objection to the idea of a significant snow storm has been the [...]

Tags: advection, Albany, Allentown, area, Atlantic City, atmosphere, Belmar, boundary layer dynamics, Bridgeport, caa, coast, cold, cold air, Connecticut, Disturbance, dominance, dominants, doubts, east, easterly wind, evenings, forecast, forecast area, forecaster, forecasters, Freehold, guidance, Hartford, heavy snowfall, high, Islip, level configuration, Long Island, low, lows, Maine, Model Guidance, models, moderation, New Jersey, New York, New York City, Newark, north, northern, objection, observation, observations, Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Poughkeepsie, precipitation, precipitations, Rain, Reading, Scranton, significant snow, snow, snow storm, snowfall, Southeast, Southeast Coast, stj, Storm, storms, sunday morning, surfaces, Sussex, systems, White Plains, Wild Wood, wills. Technical Discussions Closed

A Not So Impressive Storm

February 27th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

6:43 AM
The hysteria on the internet about a significant winter storm seems to be dying off by the day as the models get a handle on a rather progressive pattern. My overall thoughts have not changed with how I think this storm will unfold, which is a storm track to the south and east with [...]

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Active Pattern Leads To Model Uncertainty And Increasing Chances Of Snow

January 21st, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

7:08 AM
To say that the forecast for this weekend into next week is challenging is like say doing a triple axil in ice skating is kind of hard. The problem with model guidance is two fold. First, the model guidance is having difficulty in forecasting the position and strong of the upper level ridge over [...]

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