Tag Archive for 'doubts' at NY NJ PA Weather Forecasts

Arctic Express On The Way Along With More Snow Potential

January 8th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

7:49 AM
The theme going forward will likely crush the forecast for anyone going for a warm January. The combination of a strong negative EPO and the postion of the upper low over eastern Canada will support a very cold air mass to dive into the eastern two-thirds of the nation.
There can be no doubt that [...]

Tags: alberta clippers, amplification, arctic express, area, Atlantic, atmosphere, branch energy, canada, clipper, clippers, coast, cold, cold air mass, cold arctic air, combinations, dives, doubts, eastern canada, Energy, epo, er, forecast, forecast area, forecaster, forecasters, guidance, Gulf Coast, high, high potential, light snow, low, lows, medium range, metros, mid, Model Guidance, models, moisture, moisture in the atmosphere, no doubt, Philadelphia, postion, s, scream, screams, showers, significant snow, snow, snow event, snow showers, warm, weeke, wills. Technical Discussions Add a comment

This Pattern, More Than Meets The Eye

January 7th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

7:51 AM
Taking a look at the pattern via surface maps, the potential and interest in the pattern through this weekend into next week would best be described as boring, especially the GFS. However, if one was to look at 500 MB, they would come away with a totally different perspective on this pattern that is [...]

Tags: a, air express, amounts, area, Atlantic, atmosphere, blocking, clipper, clippers, coast, cold, cold air, cold conditions, CONUS, different perspective, Disturbance, dives, doors, doubts, east, ecmwf, Energy, epo, ey, forecast, forecast area, forecaster, forecasters, game, games, gfs, greenland, guidance, interaction, lifting, low, lows, map, maps, mid, Mid Atlantic, Model Guidance, models, moderation, nao, north, Northeast, northeastern connecticut, nuetral, Philadelphia, pv, Rain, Ridge, s, shortwave, shortwaves, snowfall, snowfall amounts, south, south storm, storm track, storms, surface maps, surfaces, surprise, systems, Trough, ukmet, weeke, west, wills, Winter. Technical Discussions 1 Comment

The 12Z Guidance And Thoughts For Friday

December 29th, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

8:59 PM
If you put your ear to the ground, you could hear the fall of a million snow lovers faint to the ground after seeing the 12Z GFS, which basically if taken verbatum would produce a significant snowfall for most of the forecast area, save southern New Jersey (even that location would still get measureable [...]

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Active Pattern Developing While Models Have A Difficult Job Ahead

December 27th, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

12:54 PM
Or maybe I should say meteorologist like me who are shaking their heads while looking at the model guidance. When we have a difficult pattern unfolding, the best thing to do is not get bogged down with details of rain/snow lines and what not.
Let’s think about this set up for a second.
One, [...]

Tags: amounts, area, Atlantic, blocking, bust, busts, canada, clipper, clippers, coastal plain, coastal waters, cold, cold air mass, confidence, continuation, delware, dominance, doubts, east, eastern canada, eve, evenings, forecast, forecast area, forecaster, forecasters, friday evening, friday night, greenland, guidance, high, ice, intensity, isentropic, job, lifting, low, lows, meteorologist, mid, Mid Atlantic, Model Guidance, models, nao, New England, newfoundland, north, Northeast, northwestern canada, Ohio, pacific northwest, periods, plains, precipitation, Rain, rain snow, Ridge, s, significant snow, snow, snow and ice, soundings, south, Storm, storms, synoptic, systems, transition, transitions, Trough, valleys, weeke, west, wills. Technical Discussions Add a comment

The Road To Snow And Cold

December 26th, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

8:24 AM
The pattern in this period will be evolving into a cold and very storm pattern. In this post I will naturally explain the step down into what will make a lot of individuals in the I-95 corridor very happy, if you like snow at least. Then I will touch upon my thoughts for the [...]

Tags: Albany, alberta clipper, Allentown, area, Atlantic, Atlantic City, Belmar, blocking, Bridgrt, canada, clipper, clippers, coast, cold, colder temperatures, collapse, combinations, Connecticut, continuation, Disturbance, doubts, england, ensembles, epo, evenings, excitement, explaination, fashion, favorable position, few days, forecast, forecast area, forecaster, forecasters, Freehold, friday afternoon, greenland, guidance, Hartford, high, Islip, Long Island, low, lows, mid, Mid Atlantic, Mississippi, models, nao, New Jersey, New York, New York City, Newark, north, Ohio, Pennsylvania, periods, Philadelphia, plains, pna, Poughkeepsie, precipitation, pva, Rain, rain and snow, Reading, Ridge, s, Scranton, shape, shortwave, showers, snow, snow showers, southeastern canada, Storm, storm pattern, storms, stratosphere, sunday morning, Sussex, temperature, temperatures, Tennessee, Trough, valleys, waves, wednesday night, weeke, west, what this means, White Plains, Wild Wood, wills, Winter, winter storm. Technical Discussions Add a comment

Hudson Valley and Connecticut In For A Long Day

December 21st, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

8:45 AM
While we keep an eye on developments along the coast, snow is beginning to fall over much of the Hudson Valley and Connecticut. The snow is currently associated with the primary low over the Great Lakes, however the coastal low, which is form off the Virginia coast, will begin to “back build” precipitation over [...]

Tags: Albany, Allentown, area, Atlantic City, Belmar, Bridgeport, coast, cold, Connecticut, connecticut coast, doubts, ey, Fall, forecast, forecast area, forecaster, forecasters, Freehold, Great Lakes, Hartford, Hudson Valley, Islip, Long Island, low, lows, New Jers Newark, New York, New York City, observation, observations, Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Poughkeepsie, precipitation, Reading, Scranton, snow, snow fall, snowfall, snowfall totals, snowy day, Sussex, valleys, valls, Virginia, virginia coast, White Plains, Wild Wood, wills. Technical Discussions Add a comment

Significant Snow And Ice Storm Developing Over Interior

December 11th, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

The main story this morning is obviously the sleet and freezing rain that is falling over northeastern Pennsylvania, the Hudson Valley, and the higher elevations of northern New Jersey. The model guidance appears to be a little slow in the advance of the low level cold air as trends continue to suggest the freezing line, [...]

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Close Call By Disturbance Today, But Main Event Is Thursday

December 2nd, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

I know everyone in the forecast area that loves weather are probably clued to what they are seeing over the Carolina’s on the radar image. Yes, that’s one little nasty disturbance that was NOT forecasted by the model guidance turning the corner. A surface low is developing along the Gulf Stream to the east of [...]

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Cold, Wintery, And Very Difficult Forecast Period

November 29th, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

Making this forecast has been and will continue to be very difficult. I want to touch on some important themes with the pattern as a whole and the state of the model guidance before diving into the actual forecast.
I believe we are about to enter a significant cold, and stormy pattern for much of the [...]

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Stormy Sunday, But Not Snowy

November 26th, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

Yesterday there was a lot of excitement when the medium range model guidance, especially the ECMWF produced a rather snowy solution for the coastal storm on Sunday. Even with the exciting model output, I had my significant doubts on this system playing out due to some of the points I made, one of which was [...]

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