Free weather forecast for New York, New Jersey, and eastern Pennsylvania.
6:30 AM
For the first time this winter, the best snowfall will not be over southern and central New Jersey, but will be focused much further north over the interior!
A strong upper level low moving towards the Tennessee Valley this morning will race towards the New Jersey coast tonight with a rapidly developing surface low pressure [...]
9:55 AM
The 12Z NAM is out and to the left is the QPF output for the storm based on this run. Now I know many of you in northeastern Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey, and even New York City are screaming right now in frustration. Is the NAM forecasting a miss for these areas? Well,not exactly.
What [...]
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4:33 PM
Today, the overall model guidance for 12Z suggest that the potential storm for Friday will either not form at all or will take a track slightly too far east for a significant snowfall. I am going to focus on the 120 HR of all the model guidance. The images will be to the [...]
5:53 AM
The precipitation with this storm is moving slightly faster than thought last night by about 3 hours. The dry slot is moving through the forecast area now rather than at 8 AM, however the intensity of the snow did not disappoint. Snowfall totals throughout the forecast around range from 1.8″ to 12″, but a [...]
2:54 PM
I’ve been diving into the mesoscale models the past two hours to get a handle on how and where the mesoscale forcing will set up for tonight through Monday afternoon.
The features I wanted to look at is the frontogenesis from the surface to 700 MB, the track of the 850 MB low, and [...]
9:17 AM
As this storm intensifies along the Mid Atlantic coast tonight and tomorrow morning, a strong dry slot will form at 700 MB, which will cut off precipitation in some areas slightly earlier than some would like.
My thoughts is that this will likely not impact the forecast area until after 7 AM on Monday, [...]
1:15 PM
The past few hours sure have been interesting in model guidance and when looking at the observations.
Precipitation is breaking out over the Delmarva, Maryland, and beginning to develop all over Virginia. Pressure falls are still developing over the Southeast, but the primary low is still in the Great Lakes. As a result, warm air [...]
7:20 AM
Do you remember the cartoon where Lucy is holding the football and teasing Charlie Brown to come along and kick the ball. Charlie knows Lucy is just going to pull the ball away, but he goes with it anyway. This situation seems just like that!
Side tangent, if that happened today, Charlie could have sued [...]
11:38 AM
Thus far, most of what I though was going to happen has happened. The precipitation is expanding eastward at a faster pace than most guidance suggested, the 12Z GFS has finally caught on to that. The temperatures over most locations are behaving exactly as I thought as well, except for southern New Jersey where [...]
7:27 AM
The forecast for the next three days is obviously going to be the most active in the next 24 hours.
Currently, a coastal low pressure system is developing off the New Jersey coast. Winds along the coast are beginning to turn to the northwest over southern New Jersey and northeast along Long Island, clearly indicating [...]
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