Tag Archive for 'East Coast' at NY NJ PA Weather Forecasts

Discussion on the 12Z Model Guidance

January 5th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

3:30 PM
The 12Z GFS and ECMWF are out and both do not show any type of storm for next Saturday, but just a simple yet moisture filled cold front passage. Why?
Well, it’s all at 500 MB that gives us the answer! In the 00Z guidance on Thursday night and Friday, a southern branch disturbance phases [...]

Tags: 12z gfs, area, branch energy, coast, cold, digs, discussion, Disturbance, dominance, east, East Coast, ecmwf, Energy, forecast, forecast area, forecaster, forecasters, front, gfs, Great Lakes, guess, guidance, high, high resolution, insane idea, insanity, interaction, low, lows, Model Guidance, models, moderate snow, moderation, moisture, New England, north, Ohio, resolution data, s, snow, snowfall, south, Southwest, Storm, storm track, storms, surfaces, thursday night, Trough, ups, weeke, wills. Technical Discussions Add a comment

A Break In The Pattern, Not Broken Pattern

December 10th, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

As the storm races towards the Canadian Maritimes, cold air will rush into the forecast area once again with temperatures falling back to slightly below to near normal conditions for the weekend. However, there are larger changes going on at 500 MB.
The overall 500 MB pattern will briefly readjust with a trough over the West [...]

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Winter Storm Discussion And Thoughts

December 8th, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

There is a lot to discuss with this winter storm for Thursday evening through Friday and let me tell you, I had a hard time sleeping with all the thoughts running through my head. So let’s dive in and get started.

First, I think it is important to discuss the trends of the models. I’m not [...]

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Evening Thoughts

December 5th, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

Some interesting data to look at this evening for sure!
First let me discuss the clipper situation. The model guidance is still having some difficulty in placing the exact location of where redevelopment and the track of this coastal low pressure system on Sunday morning, which is becoming slightly surprising. Frankly, I think the forecasting [...]

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Pattern Gets Active End Of Week, Pattern Shift Begins

December 5th, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

The patience of many will be tested this week, at least those that still look at the GFS beyond 180 hours. This week is the week of pattern shifts and changes, which will lead to one very tricky storm event for the end of the week. However, before I get to that, let me explain [...]

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Model Timing And The Cold Push

November 28th, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

The medium range is going to be tough to forecast for, which is nothing new so far this fall. However, the overall idea remains that an arctic cold front will slowly push south and east through next week, which will result in variable weather conditions and the influence of waves of low pressure for the [...]

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Dry And Chilly Thanksgiving, End Of The Week

November 26th, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

The weather pattern will quiet down for the next three days, which will give the forecast area comfortable weather conditions for the Thanksgiving holiday.
An upper low will continue to sit over the eastern Great Lakes and northern New York through the period, sending weak disturbances through the forecast area. The lack of moisture with [...]

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The Roller Coaster Begins

November 25th, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

The step down to some really cold conditions will begin after Thanksgiving. I’m using a blend once again of the GFS and ECMWF for the period of Friday through Monday.
A deep trough will dominate the pattern through this period and for some time afterward over much of the East. For the most part, the [...]

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Watch Out For Early December

November 22nd, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

A continued theme from the December forecast, looks like model guidance is strongly jumping onto the idea of a very cold start to December for much of the CONUS. We have a strong PNA ridge developing for the start of December, but also some other interesting features. A strong upper low over California is expected [...]

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Cold Turkey On The Way

November 10th, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

All evening I’ve been looking at a lot of long range data to see how my winter forecast is holding up. Let me tell you, the signals are very promising for those that like cold, stormy, and snowy weather conditions.
The basic observations I have been studying with the past few patterns is interesting. For example, [...]

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