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Tag Archive for 'east'

The Cold And Snow Will Not Go Away Through Next Week

7:30 AM
The Arctic Express is on the way, and this has nothing to do with Santa Claus, however for some it might seem like Christmas morning all over again.
The negative EPO is going to be doing a heck of a job driving arctic cold air into the eastern two-third of the nation through next week.  [...]

This Pattern, More Than Meets The Eye

7:51 AM
Taking a look at the pattern via surface maps, the potential and interest in the pattern through this weekend into next week would best be described as boring, especially the GFS.  However, if one was to look at 500 MB, they would come away with a totally different perspective on this pattern that is [...]

Heavy Ice And Rain To Continue Through This Afternoon

7:27 AM
The forecast for the next three days is obviously going to be the most active in the next 24 hours.
Currently, a coastal low pressure system is developing off the New Jersey coast.  Winds along the coast are beginning to turn to the northwest over southern New Jersey and northeast along Long Island, clearly indicating [...]

Good And Bad News This Morning

6:20 AM
I think I’ll start with the good news.  The east wind has done its job as expected and has warmed the entire coastal plain above freezing including the major cities and surrounding suburbs.  Heavy rain can be expected through the day as the best dynamics continue to be present over the forecast area.  This [...]

East Wind Beginning To Do Its Vodoo!

11:12 PM
The east wind we’ve been expecting is finally kicking in and allowing temperatures to rise quickly over much of southern and central New Jersey.  For example, in my own back yard since the wind switch about 30 minutes ago, temperatures have jumped from 31 degrees to 33 degrees with a steady rise indicated.  Similar [...]

Troubling Trends

9:40 PM
There are some indications that I’ve seen in the past hour that has me a bit worried about significant ice for central, western, and northern New Jersey and much of eastern Pennsylvania.
At this point, most model guidance had the low level cold air pushed out of central and southern New Jersey and warm air [...]

Pattern Will Continue Activity Through Next Week

7:41 AM
There is a lot more opportunities for winter weather over the next 10 to 15 days as a deep trough digs in the East and a ridge builds to northern Alaska over the next several days.  The negative EPO is returning and the pattern over the Atlantic is best described as nuetral in terms of [...]

Discussion on the 12Z Model Guidance

3:30 PM
The 12Z GFS and ECMWF are out and both do not show any type of storm for next Saturday, but just a simple yet moisture filled cold front passage.  Why? 
Well, it’s all at 500 MB that gives us the answer!  In the 00Z guidance on Thursday night and Friday, a southern branch disturbance phases [...]

Active Winter Weather To Continue

9:58 AM
The pattern will continue to amplify towards the end of the week and into the weekend.  I want to touch on some points about the overall pattern first before discussion the forecast.
There is some discussion that the pattern appears to be like a return to mid December with a raging postive NAO.  This is [...]

Icy Conditions On The Way

9:21 AM
A very dangerous situation is developing for parts of the forecast area that can lead to some significant icing over parts of the interior by Wednesday morning.  These types of forecast can be tricky to forecast because the line between a heavy rain and over 0.25″ of ice is like walking a tight rope [...]