NY NJ PA Weather Forecasts

Foggy start this morning with increasing flooding potential this weekend

8:00 AM
The temperatures may be warmer, but the active storm track that the Philadelphia and New York City metropolitan area experienced in February is returning once again.
The easterly fetch developing at the mid and lower levels of the atmosphere is already influencing the northern Mid Atlantic as Atlantic moisture moves into the coastal plain.  The [...]

Tranquil conditions continue, but rainy weekend on the way

7:30 AM
High pressure continues to remain just to the west of the Philadelphia and New York City metropolitan area, creating a light and dry northwesterly wind and clear skies.  The down sloping component of the northwesterly wind off the Appalachian Mountains will support warm temperatures once again with most locations in the 50’s to possibly [...]

Worst impacts to the north and east, but northern Mid Atlantic will feel some effects

9:41 PM
The first storm to impact the northern Mid Atlantic this week is going to generally be a miss, however more potential storms are on the way.
Tonight, a new coastal low is forming off the North Carolina coast as a primary low is weakening over Lake Erie.  The continued dominance of the low over the [...]

Rain and minor ice threat on tap today

8:39 AM

An intensifying low pressure system is moving through the Tennessee Valley this morning with heavy rain approaching southern New Jersey.  The heavy rain is expected to spread throughout the Philadelphia and New York City metropolitan area through this morning and become heavy this afternoon.
The hold of cold air is starting to give over most [...]

Low pressure this weekend acts more like a warm front

7:28 AM
This morning, high pressure is the dominant player over much of the northern Mid Atlantic with temperatures bottoming out in the mid to upper 10’s over the interior and lower 20’s to lower 30’s along the coast.  Naturally, the urban areas of the Philadelphia and New York City metropolitan are the warmest this morning. [...]

Complicated and active pattern unfolding

7:23 AM
This morning an energetic disturbance over the Ohio Valley is racing east, slightly faster than most model guidance have projected, and is producing light snow showers over parts of western Pennsylvania.  This disturbance will continue to move east, but will run into the surface high pressure currently sitting over the Philadelphia and New York [...]

Models trend back to drier conditions for the weekend

7:04 AM
I have to wonder after looking at the guidance over the past three days if this is going to be a theme for the winter to follow?  Model guidance took a big jump back away from the upper low, heavy rain event for Sunday.  I was originally skeptical of this solution in the first [...]

Tranquil conditions leads to major storm by Friday

9:09 AM

With yesterday’s cold front well off the coast, strong high pressure has taken and is producing some very chilly conditions.  Temperatures this morning range from the upper 30’s over northeastern Pennsylvania and the Hudson Valley to the upper 40’s along the southern New Jersey coast, however the coldest conditions [...]

Drier weather ahead, but pattern amplification on the way

6:18 PM
The upper level pattern is about to go into a significant transition from a progressive pattern to one of significant amplification.  Of all the model guidance, I believe the ECMWF is the most aggressive, however the ECMWF has an established track record of picking up these pattern changes so the model should not be [...]

Wet and raw conditions give way to drier weekend conditions

5:15 AM
A cold front is stalling over the southern New Jersey coastal waters this morning and combined to high pressure to the north, is producing a sustained easterly wind over much of the forecast area.  The easterly fetch extends as far up as 700 MB, where strong moisture advection from the Atlantic is being supported.
Note [...]