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Tag Archive for 'ecmwf'

Minor snow threat for Tuesday night into Wednesday morning

9:15 PM
A very energetic Sub Tropical disturbance is rapidly developing along the Gulf Coast this evening.  However, a more important disturbance that will determine the forecast is actually along the West coast.
While the storm along the Gulf Coast certainly appears ominous, the progression of the Pacific storm this evening into the coast of Washington and [...]

More thoughts on Winter Storm Potential

– Weather When Posted –Temperature: 24°F;Humidity: 58%;Heat Index: 24°F;Wind Chill: 18°F;Pressure: 30.27 in.;

MJO and Stratosphere point to active February

7:50 AM
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Stratospheric temperatures continue to rise steadily this morning with much of the atmospheric layer from 1 MB to 70 MB now averaging above normal.  The warming at 1 M is starting to slow some as the temperatures approach record highs, however model guidance from the ECMWF suggest another period of warming is on [...]

Evening Thoughts- Zeroing in on winter storm impacts

10:00 PM
My thoughts this evening on the storm for Friday night through Sunday morning has not changed much.  The overall development of the storm will depend on the development of the Polar Vortex and the interaction of the Arctic cold front with the Sub Tropical disturbance.
The initial set up for this storm on Friday afternoon [...]

No significant changes to thoughts from this morning

8:50 PM
The current trends on the radar and the satellite basically support the forecast that I issued this morning.  I don’t expect much in the way of precipitation north of central New Jersey through the immediate northwest suburbs of Philadelphia from this developing low pressure.
This evening, a new coastal low is forming off the South [...]

Negative EPO to lead the way back to cold and snow

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7:50 AM
The majority of next week will feature relatively mild conditions compared to the past several weeks, however the mild stretch will not last long as a repeat of what happened in late November is starting to unfold.
– Weather When Posted –Temperature: 28°F;Humidity: 74%;Heat Index: 28°F;Wind Chill: 21°F;Pressure: 30.15 in.;

The Polar disturbance that is causing the model mayhem

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7:49 AM
Another run and more indecision on the model guidance on what to expect for the period of Sunday night through Monday.  What disturbance is causing these issues?  I have found the culprit and this feature is not going to be handled very well until late in the week at the earliest!
– Weather When [...]

Evening Thoughts: The weekend storm and the future of this winter

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9:51 PM
I’ve gotten a lot of emails through the day about pattern changes, storm questions, and pretty much everything in between.  First, I’ll answer one question I can share with everyone.  Yes, I really am a Mets fan.  So, lets get to the rest of the questions.
– Weather When Posted –Temperature: 28°F;Humidity: 46%;Heat Index: [...]

Tricky forecast for this week, timing is everything

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7:45 AM
This week the warning that timing is everything could not be truer.  The movement of individual disturbances that are still over the Pacific will be key in determining exactly what type of storm is possible for next weekend.
– Weather When Posted –Temperature: 17°F;Humidity: 67%;Heat Index: 17°F;Wind Chill: 7°F;Pressure: 30.18 in.;

Another cold morning, is snow far behind?

7:07 AM
The strong Polar disturbance that is more developed than guidance suggested a few days ago is an important clue and reminder for the forecast later this week.  For now, that disturbance represents another push of a Polar/Arctic air mass after Tuesday afternoon.  The key to the forecast over the next several days is the [...]



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