NY NJ PA Weather Forecasts

Major Stratospheric warming threat growing

8:10 AM
Premium Content:
As I’ve been discussing for the past several days, no feature is an island to itself in the atmosphere.  As such, I’ve been keeping an eye of the developments of the stratosphere and the MJO to get a handle on where the pattern is going from this point.  This morning I will focus [...]

Pattern change or no pattern change, what is going on right now

Premium Content:
9:25 AM
There’s a lot to cover this morning.  My primary focus is going to be on the pattern relaxation and then amplification for the medium and long range, but I want to touch on the light snow event for tonight into tomorrow first.
– Weather When Posted –Temperature: 32°F;Humidity: 59%;Heat Index: 32°F;Wind Chill: 21°F;Pressure: 29.92 [...]

Tranquil conditions today, but not for long

7:33 AM
As the area of low pressure that brought periods of heavy rain over much of the northern Mid Atlantic and ice over the interior exits into the Atlantic, high pressure is taking over.  It should be noted, that with this previous rain event, most locations are averaging one to two inches above normal in [...]

Long range guidance hits a bump in the road

8:40 AM
I’m sure everyone has seen the extended forecast on the GFS that dumps a significant arctic air mass into the Rockies and West coast.  This naturally leads to a large ridge over the eastern third of the nation and rather warm conditions.  The ECMWF is not as aggressive but does have a storm track [...]

Morning Model Thoughts

12:24 PM
The 12Z GFS and PARA GFS are now in and I want to address a few features that I think are very important for the next 15 days.
Over the past few weeks, actually since October, I’ve been steady in advertising the threat that I saw coming for early December as the pattern changes.  The [...]

Long Range Thoughts

8:15 AM
There is something brewing in the Tropical Pacific and it is called an MJO or Madden-Julian Oscillation.  To get a great overview on the technical side of what’s going on, I want to introduce you to a meteorologist with the initials HM who has written a great post on Eastern US Weather.
To break this [...]

Tranquil conditions won’t last forever

5:15 AM
I think most would agree that the Labor Day weekend has been the best weather weekend of the summer, which is ironic since this weekend is the last of the “summer” weekends for those in the vacation business.  The air mass will be shift to a more humid pattern once again and with higher [...]

Tropical Weather Update for Saturday, June 20 2009

6:45 Am
Once again, the Tropical Atlantic remains quiet as El Nino conditions are already dominating much of the Atlantic.  Strong westerly to southwesterly shear remain over the Caribbean to the coast of Africa, which is inhibiting any disturbance from developing.  Meanwhile, dry air via high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico is producing clear skies. [...]

Tropical Weather Update for Thursday, June 18 2009

8:15 AM

The one good aspect of El Nino this summer is that development of tropical systems continues to be inhibited by strong westerly shear and a lack of any organized disturbances.  Strong westerly and southwesterly shear dominates the central and wester Caribbean and over the western Tropical Atlantic.  The combination of a trough over northern [...]

Tropical Weather Update for Wednesday June 10, 2009

7:30 AM
The upper low that has inhibited the development of any tropical disturbance over the Atlantic continues to weaken and move towards Europe this morning.  However, westerly shear continues to influence much of the Tropical Atlantic and will continue to do so over the next several days.  Another trough over the Caribbean this morning will [...]