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Archive for El Nino

Premium Discussion Overview for October 6, 2010

The pesky upper low over the Ohio Valley the past few days is now finally exiting towards the Northern Mid Atlantic coast, however showers will continue to remain a threat through Thursday.  Then high pressure takes control for what will be an excellent weekend!  Details on the showers can  be Read More→

NY NJ PA Weather Poll: Global Warming

I just saw a story on Good Morning America on Global Warming driving the flooding in Pakistan, the heat waves this summer here, and the heat waves in Russia. Interestingly, unlike in 2006, no mention was made of the quiet Hurricane Season thus far nor the development of La Nina Read More→

Tranquil conditions today, but not for long

7:33 AM

Water Vapor-NOAA

Water Vapor-NOAA

As the area of low pressure that brought periods of heavy rain over much of the northern Mid Atlantic and ice over the interior exits into the Atlantic, high pressure is taking over.  It should be noted, that with this previous rain event, most locations are averaging one Read More→

Long range guidance hits a bump in the road

8:40 AM

I’m sure everyone has seen the extended forecast on the GFS that dumps a significant arctic air mass into the Rockies and West coast.  This naturally leads to a large ridge over the eastern third of the nation and rather warm conditions.  The ECMWF is not as aggressive Read More→

Morning Model Thoughts

12:24 PM

The 12Z GFS and PARA GFS are now in and I want to address a few features that I think are very important for the next 15 days.

Over the past few weeks, actually since October, I’ve been steady in advertising the threat that I saw coming for Read More→

Tranquil conditions won’t last forever

5:15 AM

I think most would agree that the Labor Day weekend has been the best weather weekend of the summer, which is ironic since this weekend is the last of the “summer” weekends for those in the vacation business.  The air mass will be shift to a more humid Read More→

Tropical Weather Update for Saturday, June 20 2009

6:45 Am

Once again, the Tropical Atlantic remains quiet as El Nino conditions are already dominating much of the Atlantic.  Strong westerly to southwesterly shear remain over the Caribbean to the coast of Africa, which is inhibiting any disturbance from developing.  Meanwhile, dry air via high pressure over the Gulf Read More→

Tropical Weather Update for Thursday, June 18 2009

8:15 AM

The one good aspect of El Nino this summer is that development of tropical systems continues to be inhibited by strong westerly shear and a lack of any organized disturbances.  Strong westerly and southwesterly shear dominates the central and wester Caribbean and over the western Tropical Atlantic.  The Read More→

Tropical Weather Update for Wednesday June 10, 2009

7:30 AM

wv-l-12The upper low that has inhibited the development of any tropical disturbance over the Atlantic continues to weaken and move towards Europe this morning.  However, westerly shear continues to influence much of the Tropical Atlantic and will continue to do so over the next several days.  Another trough Read More→