Tag Archive for 'elevation' at NY NJ PA Weather Forecasts

Thoughts On The Afternoon Model Guidance

January 2nd, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

9:20 PM
There’s a lot of excitement over the trend of the model guidance towards a colder solution for Tuesday night and Wednesday, specifically the 18Z GFS.
While I can understand the excitement, I want to state that the 18Z GFS does not exactly have the strongest of support. While I agree that a coastal low is [...]

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Ice Threat For Tonight Gives Way To Flooding Concerns

December 23rd, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

7:15 AM
Precipitation is moving through the Ohio Valley in the form of some light to moderate snow, however by the time the precipitation reaches the forecast area, warm air advection will warm much of the atmosphere above normal. However, I still have concerns about below freezing surfaces like bridge overpasses and throughout much of the [...]

Tags: advection, Albany, Allentown, area, Atlantic City, atmosphere, Belmar, bridge, Bridgeport, christmas, clearing skies, cold, cold front, combinations, Connecticut, elevation, eve, Fall, flood, flooding, floods, forecast, forecast area, forecaster, forecasters, Freehold, front, Hartford, high, ice, Islip, Long Island, low, lows, moderate snow, moderation, New Jersey, New York, New York City, Newark, normal, Ohio, overpasses, Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Poughkeepsie, precipitation, Rain, Reading, Scranton, snow, surfaces, Sussex, temperature, temperatures, thunderstorm, thunderstorms, thursday morning, tomorrow morning, valleys, waa, warm, wednesday night, White Plains, Wild Wood, wills. Technical Discussions Add a comment

Major Cold Front On The Way

December 14th, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

10:30 AM
The main story over the next 3 days is going to be the wild temperature swings we will experience. Spring will visit the forecast area tonight and Monday followed by a hard slap of reality on Tuesday. So let’s dive back into the forecast!
Today, the high pressure system is slowly leaving the forecast area. [...]

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Upper Low Moves Further North Than Expected

December 11th, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

This early afternoon, it has become clear that the entire upper level structure of the storm is starting to move further north, which will have significant impact on the entire forecast through tomorrow morning.
Instead of more snow, the risk is even more higher for high ice totals for even the higher elevations. The warmer temperatures [...]

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Significant Snow And Ice Storm Developing Over Interior

December 11th, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

The main story this morning is obviously the sleet and freezing rain that is falling over northeastern Pennsylvania, the Hudson Valley, and the higher elevations of northern New Jersey. The model guidance appears to be a little slow in the advance of the low level cold air as trends continue to suggest the freezing line, [...]

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Evening Thoughts

December 10th, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

So far the overall forecast is going well in the timing and structure of the overall low pressure system over the Gulf Coast. The phase, so close yet so far away, has never meant more than what we are seeing in the water vapor images and the surface features.
At 500 MB, the shortwave associated [...]

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Rain Today, Dry Start To Next Week

November 30th, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

Today’s forecast is pretty much on the easy side. All one has to do is look at the radar and they’ll know that rain will continue to impact the forecast area through the day and into the evening hours. A brief break in the precipitation is starting to move through the Philadelphia metro, however a [...]

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Rainy End To Weekend Setting Up

November 29th, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

There is a lot to go over this morning in regards to this period and the medium range period. Let’s dive into what should be a roller coaster of temperatures!
The first feature I want to detail is the stronger than forecasted CAD over the forecast area. The CAD, which overall is still weak, extends [...]

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Cloudy Start And Shoppers Bargins

November 28th, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

I still can’t understand the idea of getting up at 4 AM to shop for gifts, but then again I wake up at 5 AM everyday to forecast the weather, so who am I to talk.
A cold front is currently moving through the forecast area this morning. The majority of the moisture with this [...]

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Snow Storm For This Sunday? Hold Your Horses Everyone!

November 25th, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

By the way I have gotten my email account pounded this afternoon, I could already tell that the models were brewing up some mischief for this weekend. The question is if the models are on to something or if the solution we are seeing is pure fantasy.
The ECMWF is the main culprit here. Let [...]

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