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Evening Thoughts- storm threat increases for Friday

November 24th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

10:15 PM
Tonight I’ve been going over the various models from the 12Z and 18 Z guidance. First I want to touch on the storm potential for Thursday night into Friday.
The 18Z models are a good indicator of where models are trending or adjusting to. Both the 18Z GFS and NAM produced a stronger and more [...]

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Elevation snow threat collapses, heavy rain along the coast

October 18th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

8:57 AM
Those that had sporting events last night, like the Yankees last night, mainly were spared the worst conditions due to high pressure strengthening over New England. The high pressure strengthening combined with the low progression of the coastal low kept much of the heavy rain south of the Bronx, which allowed the Yankees to [...]

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Heavy rain and severe weather a significant threat

June 20th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

7:30 AM
The forecast for today through tonight is best described as significantly complicated and potentially very active. The main theme is basically the progression of the warm front currently over southwesterly Pennsylvania through eastern Virginia. I want to start with the fact that the surface low pressure system is further north and weaker than forecasted [...]

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High pressure gives way as rain is on the way

June 17th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

7:27 AM
The pleasant weather conditions from yesterday are about to come to an end. So is my confidence in model guidance, by the way. However, before I get to that, let’s take a look at the precipitation that is charging towards the forecast area.
High pressure currently centered over eastern Connecticut and Rhode Island, will continue [...]

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Drier weather returns to the forecast area

June 16th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

7:58 AM
The rainy pattern that much of the forecast area has experienced this June is taking a short break, as high pressure positions itself over Maine this morning. The position of the high pressure system will still force a marine air mass in place over the region, which is supporting the low clouds this morning. [...]

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Strong Thunderstorms for Saturday, June 13, 2009

June 13th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

Most recent updates on the bottom!
12:40:48 PM: The strongest thunderstorm of all the thunderstorms throughout the region is over western Burlington County.
12:42:03 PM: The thunderstorm over western Burlington County is producing very heavy rainfall and frequent lightning.
12:43:03 PM: These thunderstorms are below severe level, but can reduce visibility rapidly due to the heavy rainfall and [...]

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Strong thunderstorms developing throughout the region

June 13th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

12:35 PM
As discussed this morning, as the sun broke through and destabilize the atmosphere, mesoscale boundaries have developed. These boundaries have produced slow moving and strong thunderstorms. These thunderstorms are producing producing very heavy rainfall over western Burlington County and Morris County in New Jersey and throughout eastern Pennsylvania. These thunderstorms are capable of producing [...]

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Thunderstorms over Ohio Valley to influence conditions this afternoon

June 11th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

8:43 AM

A strong Mesoscale Convective System or MCS is currently moving through the Ohio Valley this morning behind a warm front that ismoving through western Pennsylvania. The MCS is supported by a mid level disturbance that is moving east along the frontal boundary and will approach the forecast area by late this afternoon. While I [...]

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Strong thunderstorms on the move, more to come later

June 9th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

7:18 AM
There’s a lot to discuss this morning, so lets dive right into it!
An impressive line of thunderstorms has developed early this morning in response to the strong low level jet stream at 950 and 850 MB this morning. The warm front continues to lift north and eastward, but is having some difficulty doing so [...]

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Severe weather potentially explosive tomorrow afternoon

June 8th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

9:38 PM
A preview of the a potentially very active afternoon was seen this afternoon over much of southern Monmouth and Ocean counties of New Jersey this afternoon. A weak disturbance, a remnant from the MCS that impacted much of the Mid West early this morning, sparked off a cluster of showers and thunderstorms. These thunderstorms [...]

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