NY NJ PA Weather Forecasts

Heavy rain tomorrow night brings a threat of flash flooding

9:26 AM
There is no doubt what the major feature on the water vapor satellite picture is this morning.  A strong Sub Tropical disturbance is supporting the development of a strong and moisture loaded area of low pressure over the Gulf Coast that will move towards the New Jersey coastal waters by Sunday night.
Meanwhile, we can [...]

The step down begins

7:10 AM
This morning, the first step towards a cold and potentially very stormy pattern is unfolding.  A very strong coastal low continues to intensify off the New England coast this morning as a strong upper low intensifies over the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic.
I’ve been discussing for several weeks now that a major change in [...]

Wet end of the week begins

7:16 AM
This morning, an impressive disturbance is diving south towards the Tennessee Valley and has begun to enhance rainfall over the East coast.  An area of low pressure off the South Carolina coast this morning, which developed last night during the live chat, is starting to intensify with a 2 MB drop in the past [...]

Heavy rain and severe weather a significant threat

7:30 AM
The forecast for today through tonight is best described as significantly complicated and potentially very active.  The main theme is basically the progression of the warm front currently over southwesterly Pennsylvania through eastern Virginia.  I want to start with the fact that the surface low pressure system is further north and weaker than forecasted [...]

High pressure gives way as rain is on the way

7:27 AM
The pleasant weather conditions from yesterday are about to come to an end.  So is my confidence in model guidance, by the way.  However, before I get to that, let’s take a look at the precipitation that is charging towards the forecast area. 
High pressure currently centered over eastern Connecticut and Rhode Island, will continue [...]

Drier weather returns to the forecast area

7:58 AM
The rainy pattern that much of the forecast area has experienced this June is taking a short break, as high pressure positions itself over Maine this morning.  The position of the high pressure system will still force a marine air mass in place over the region, which is supporting the low clouds this morning. [...]

Strong Thunderstorms for Saturday, June 13, 2009

Most recent updates on the bottom!
12:40:48 PM: The strongest thunderstorm of all the thunderstorms throughout the region is over western Burlington County.
12:42:03 PM: The thunderstorm over western Burlington County is producing very heavy rainfall and frequent lightning.
12:43:03 PM: These thunderstorms are below severe level, but can reduce visibility rapidly due to the heavy rainfall and [...]

Strong thunderstorms developing throughout the region

12:35 PM
As discussed this morning, as the sun broke through and destabilize the atmosphere, mesoscale boundaries have developed.  These boundaries have produced slow moving and strong thunderstorms.  These thunderstorms are producing producing very heavy rainfall over western Burlington County and Morris County  in New Jersey and throughout eastern Pennsylvania.  These thunderstorms are capable of producing [...]

Thunderstorms over Ohio Valley to influence conditions this afternoon

8:43 AM

A strong Mesoscale Convective System or MCS is currently moving through the Ohio Valley this morning behind a warm front that ismoving through western Pennsylvania.  The MCS is supported by a mid level disturbance that is moving east along the frontal boundary and will approach the forecast area by late this afternoon.  While I [...]

Strong thunderstorms on the move, more to come later

7:18 AM
There’s a lot to discuss this morning, so lets dive right into it!
An impressive line of thunderstorms has developed early this morning in response to the strong low level jet stream at 950 and 850 MB this morning.  The warm front continues to lift north and eastward, but is having some difficulty doing so [...]