Tag Archive for 'Energy' at NY NJ PA Weather Forecasts

Arctic Express On The Way Along With More Snow Potential

January 8th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

7:49 AM
The theme going forward will likely crush the forecast for anyone going for a warm January. The combination of a strong negative EPO and the postion of the upper low over eastern Canada will support a very cold air mass to dive into the eastern two-thirds of the nation.
There can be no doubt that [...]

Tags: alberta clippers, amplification, arctic express, area, Atlantic, atmosphere, branch energy, canada, clipper, clippers, coast, cold, cold air mass, cold arctic air, combinations, dives, doubts, eastern canada, Energy, epo, er, forecast, forecast area, forecaster, forecasters, guidance, Gulf Coast, high, high potential, light snow, low, lows, medium range, metros, mid, Model Guidance, models, moisture, moisture in the atmosphere, no doubt, Philadelphia, postion, s, scream, screams, showers, significant snow, snow, snow event, snow showers, warm, weeke, wills. Technical Discussions Add a comment

Thoughts For The Weekend And Beyond

January 7th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

8:41 PM
I can tell the excitement is building for Saturday based on the emails that have flooded my inbox this afternoon. Yes, the model guidance, and I mean all model guidance, is picking up on the potential for the Alberta Clipper on Saturday.
Before we get into the model guidance, let’s get back to the basics [...]

Tags: 18z gfs, advertisement, alberta clipper, amplification, area, Atlantic, bowling ball, bulls eye, clipper, clippers, coast, coffee, cold, Colorado, confidence, continuation, delmarva, delmarva peninsula, digs, Disturbance, ecmwf, Energy, evenings, excitement, ey, flood, flooding, floods, forecast, forecast area, forecast period, forecaster, forecasters, frontogenesis, gfs, Giants, guidance, heck, lake ontario, level jet, low, lows, mid, Mississippi, Model Guidance, models, nam, nao, Ohio, outlier, periods, Phillies, pva, qpf, Ridge, s, snow, south, Storm, storm track, storms, stream energy, surfaces, train, Trough, ukmet, valleys, warm, west, west coast, wilderness, wills, Winter. Technical Discussions Add a comment

This Pattern, More Than Meets The Eye

January 7th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

7:51 AM
Taking a look at the pattern via surface maps, the potential and interest in the pattern through this weekend into next week would best be described as boring, especially the GFS. However, if one was to look at 500 MB, they would come away with a totally different perspective on this pattern that is [...]

Tags: a, air express, amounts, area, Atlantic, atmosphere, blocking, clipper, clippers, coast, cold, cold air, cold conditions, CONUS, different perspective, Disturbance, dives, doors, doubts, east, ecmwf, Energy, epo, ey, forecast, forecast area, forecaster, forecasters, game, games, gfs, greenland, guidance, interaction, lifting, low, lows, map, maps, mid, Mid Atlantic, Model Guidance, models, moderation, nao, north, Northeast, northeastern connecticut, nuetral, Philadelphia, pv, Rain, Ridge, s, shortwave, shortwaves, snowfall, snowfall amounts, south, south storm, storm track, storms, surface maps, surfaces, surprise, systems, Trough, ukmet, weeke, west, wills, Winter. Technical Discussions 1 Comment

Pattern Will Continue Activity Through Next Week

January 6th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

7:41 AM
There is a lot more opportunities for winter weather over the next 10 to 15 days as a deep trough digs in the East and a ridge builds to northern Alaska over the next several days. The negative EPO is returning and the pattern over the Atlantic is best described as nuetral in terms of [...]

Tags: alaska, Albany, Allentown, Atlantic, Atlantic City, Belmar, branch energy, Bridgrt, clipper, coast, Connecticut, continuation, deep trough, digs, discussion, Disturbance, east, ecmwf, Energy, energy moves, ensembles, epo, evenings, ey, forecast, forecast area, forecaster, forecasters, Freehold, gfs, guidance, Hartford, high, high potential, Hudson VallNew Jers, isentropic, Islip, lifting, Long Island, low, lows, mid, Mississippi, Mississippi Valley, Model Guidance, models, moderate snow, moderation, nao, New York, New York City, Newark, north, northern alaska, northern stream, nuetral, Pennsylvania, periods, Philadelphia, Poughkeepsie, Ridge, s, Scranton, seasonal trends, snow, snowfall, southern pennsylvania, Storm, storm track, storms, stream systems, Sussex, system moves, systems, Trenton, Trough, troughs, valleys, waves, weather, weeke, White Plains, Wild Wood, wills, Winter, winter weather. Technical Discussions Add a comment

Discussion on the 12Z Model Guidance

January 5th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

3:30 PM
The 12Z GFS and ECMWF are out and both do not show any type of storm for next Saturday, but just a simple yet moisture filled cold front passage. Why?
Well, it’s all at 500 MB that gives us the answer! In the 00Z guidance on Thursday night and Friday, a southern branch disturbance phases [...]

Tags: 12z gfs, area, branch energy, coast, cold, digs, discussion, Disturbance, dominance, east, East Coast, ecmwf, Energy, forecast, forecast area, forecaster, forecasters, front, gfs, Great Lakes, guess, guidance, high, high resolution, insane idea, insanity, interaction, low, lows, Model Guidance, models, moderate snow, moderation, moisture, New England, north, Ohio, resolution data, s, snow, snowfall, south, Southwest, Storm, storm track, storms, surfaces, thursday night, Trough, ups, weeke, wills. Technical Discussions Add a comment

Active Winter Weather To Continue

January 5th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

9:58 AM
The pattern will continue to amplify towards the end of the week and into the weekend. I want to touch on some points about the overall pattern first before discussion the forecast.
There is some discussion that the pattern appears to be like a return to mid December with a raging postive NAO. This is [...]

Tags: accumulation, advertisement, alaska, Albany, Allentown, area, Atlantic, Atlantic City, atmosphere, Belmar, blocking, canada, clipper, clippers, coast, cold, cold air mass, combinations, Connecticut, continuation, discussion, Disturbance, dives, east, ecmwf, Energy, ensembles, epo, forecast, forecast area, forecaster, forecasters, Freehold, front, gfs, guidance, Hartford, high, ice, isentropic, Islip, lake effect snow, lifting, Long Island, low, low pressure system, lows, maximums, mid, Mid Atlantic, Mississippi, Model Guidance, models, moderation, nao, New Jersey, New York, New York City, Newark, normal, normals, northern canada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, periods, Philadelphia, plains, Poughkeepsie, precipitation, Rain, Ridge, Scranton, showers, snow, snow showers, Southeast, southeastern canada, Storm, storm track, storms, Sussex, systems, Teleconnection, Teleconnections, temperature, temperatures, transition, transitions, Trenton, valleys, waves, weather, weeke, west, west coast, White Plains, wills, Winter, winter storms, yukon. Technical Discussions Add a comment

Growing Snow Threat For Next Weekend

January 4th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

10:30 AM
The pattern developing for the end of the week and into the weekend is one of a classic KU set up that we’ve seen before. Now, before everyone goes nuts, I am not suggesting that a KU storm is on the way. I can’t say that at for another 3 or 4 days. What [...]

Tags: alaska, Albany, Allentown, Atlantic City, Belmar, blocking, Bport, coast, cold, cold air mass, confluence, Connecticut, convergence, Energy, epo, evenings, Freehold, friday night, guidance, Hartfod, high, intensity, Islip, ku, Long Island, low, lows, Model Guidance, models, nao, New Jersey, New York, New York City, Newark, north, northern stream, nuts, Pennsylvania, periods, Philadelphia, pna, Poughkeepsie, precipitation, pva, quebec, Ridge, s, saturday evening, saturday night, Scranton, snow, Storm, storm track, storms, Sussex, transition, Trenton, Trough, ups, watches, weeke, west, west coast, White Plains, wills, Winter, winter storms. Technical Discussions Add a comment

The 12/31/08 Clipper Final Observations And Thoughts

January 1st, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

11:42 AM
The following are officially snowfall observations from the National Weather Service:
DELAWARE
…NEW CASTLE COUNTY…
   RED LION                 T   100 PM 12/31
   WILMINGTON               T   100 PM 12/31   SNOW OBSERVER
NEW JERSEY
…BURLINGTON COUNTY…
   MOUNT HOLLY            0.2   110 PM 12/31   NWS OFFICE
…GLOUCESTER COUNTY…
   NATIONAL PARK            T   100 PM 12/31   SNOW OBSERVER
…MORRIS COUNTY…
   MARCELLA               1.4 1030 AM 12/31   SPOTTER REPORT
   HACKETTSTOWN [...]

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Active And Blocking Pattern Ready To Rock Start Of 2009

December 31st, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

8:07 AM
There are some interesting themes that are coming from the medium range guidance over the past few runs that need to be addressed as we move into the first full week of January, 2009.
The first theme that the model generally agree on is that the block over Greenland will significantly intensify to build down [...]

Tags: Albany, Allentown, area, Atlantic, Atlantic City, Baltimore, Belmar, blocking, Bport, canada, coast, cold, cold air, Connecticut, discussion, Disturbance, east, eastern canada, Energy, evenings, ey, forecast, forecast area, forecast guidance, forecaster, forecasters, Freehold, greenland, guidance, Hartford, hudson bay, ice, interaction, Islip, jet stream, Jets, Long Island, long time, low, lows, medium range, mid, Model Guidance, models, moisture, New Jers New York, New York City, Newark, Pennsylvania, periods, Philadelphia, plains, polar jet, Poughkeepsie, Rain, rain showers, Ridge, s, Scranton, showers, snow, snow and ice, snow ice, snow showers, south, specifics, Storm, storm track, storms, stream energy, sunday evening, Sussex, systems, Trenton, Tropical, tropics, warm, Washington, watches, weeke, White Plains, wills. Technical Discussions Add a comment

Tricky Forecast, To Snow Or Not To Snow

December 30th, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

7:55 AM
Going into this period, I was hoping that model guidance would improve in sheilding some light on the events that will play out on Friday. To some extent, the guidance has given me a better idea of what to expect here. The general consencious is that the clipper to drive towards the Great Lakes [...]

Tags: Albany, Allentown, area, Atlantic City, Belmar, blocking, boundary layer, Bridgrt, clipper, coast, Coastal Storm, cold, cold friday, Connecticut, delmarva, delmarva coast, delmarva peninsula, discussion, Disturbance, dives, dominance, east, eastern Long Island, ecmwf, Energy, energy transfers, epo, extent, ey, forecast, forecast area, forecaster, forecasters, Freehold, friday afternoon, friday evening, friday morning, Great Lakes, guidance, Hartford, initial boundary, initial position, intensity, Islip, Long Island, low, lows, mid, Milliville, mistake, Model Guidance, models, moderation, nao, New JersSussex, New York, New York City, Newark, normal, north, Ohio, Pennsylvania, periods, Philadelphia, Poughkeepsie, precipitation, presence, pumps, pva, Rain, Ridge, s, Scranton, showers, sleet, snow, snow showers, snowfall, south, Storm, storms, surfaces, surprise, temperature, temperatures, Trenton, valleys, Virginia, weeke, west, White Plains, Wild Wood, wills, windy. Technical Discussions Add a comment