6:46 AM

The enjoyable weekend conditions are quickly coming to an end as the new pattern, dominated by a Bermuda High over the western Atlantic, begins to take over the weather conditions.

This morning, a strong disturbance is diving into the Tennessee Valley while a strong ridge continues to build and intensify over the western Atlantic and along the East coast.  The combination of the two upper level systems has produced a strong southerly wind at the mid and upper levels, which is drawing moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and the Tropical Atlantic.  The strong disturbance has started to produce strong lifting along the southern Mid Atlantic coast and eventually will do the same for the forecast area this afternoon.  A growing area of showers and thunderstorms have formed over North Carolina, Virginia, eastern Maryland, and the coastal waters.  These showers and thunderstorms will continue to move north into forecast area late this morning and in the afternoon.  Given the high water content of the atmosphere, there is a high potential for heavy downpours of a nearly tropical nature, which may lead to flash flooding this afternoon and into the evening hours.

Through the rest of this week, basically a similar pattern will continue to unfold for the region as these disturbances continue to rotate through the deep trough over the Mississippi Valley and western Great Lakes.  The combination of the trough to the west and the ridge to the east will continue to drive warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico and Tropical Atlantic into the forecast area through at least Friday.  As a result, each afternoon will feature the risk of showers and thunderstorms.

The good news is that the timing of the break down and redevelopment of this pattern is on our side.  The trough that sends the disturbances through the region all week, will lift into northeastern Canada on Friday night.  As a result, the ridge over the Atlantic will be allowed to build into the Mid Atlantic, providing dry yet warm and humid conditions for the forecast area.  A new trough will begin to take hold by Sunday night, however current guidance does suggest a generally dry weekend (much like this past one) with very enjoyable beach conditions.  Temperatures through the period will average near normal with generally moderate to high humidity.