Tag Archive for 'ensembles' at NY NJ PA Weather Forecasts

Pattern Will Continue Activity Through Next Week

January 6th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

7:41 AM
There is a lot more opportunities for winter weather over the next 10 to 15 days as a deep trough digs in the East and a ridge builds to northern Alaska over the next several days. The negative EPO is returning and the pattern over the Atlantic is best described as nuetral in terms of [...]

Tags: alaska, Albany, Allentown, Atlantic, Atlantic City, Belmar, branch energy, Bridgrt, clipper, coast, Connecticut, continuation, deep trough, digs, discussion, Disturbance, east, ecmwf, Energy, energy moves, ensembles, epo, evenings, ey, forecast, forecast area, forecaster, forecasters, Freehold, gfs, guidance, Hartford, high, high potential, Hudson VallNew Jers, isentropic, Islip, lifting, Long Island, low, lows, mid, Mississippi, Mississippi Valley, Model Guidance, models, moderate snow, moderation, nao, New York, New York City, Newark, north, northern alaska, northern stream, nuetral, Pennsylvania, periods, Philadelphia, Poughkeepsie, Ridge, s, Scranton, seasonal trends, snow, snowfall, southern pennsylvania, Storm, storm track, storms, stream systems, Sussex, system moves, systems, Trenton, Trough, troughs, valleys, waves, weather, weeke, White Plains, Wild Wood, wills, Winter, winter weather. Technical Discussions Add a comment

Active Winter Weather To Continue

January 5th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

9:58 AM
The pattern will continue to amplify towards the end of the week and into the weekend. I want to touch on some points about the overall pattern first before discussion the forecast.
There is some discussion that the pattern appears to be like a return to mid December with a raging postive NAO. This is [...]

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The 12Z Guidance And Thoughts For Friday

December 29th, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

8:59 PM
If you put your ear to the ground, you could hear the fall of a million snow lovers faint to the ground after seeing the 12Z GFS, which basically if taken verbatum would produce a significant snowfall for most of the forecast area, save southern New Jersey (even that location would still get measureable [...]

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The Road To Snow And Cold

December 26th, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

8:24 AM
The pattern in this period will be evolving into a cold and very storm pattern. In this post I will naturally explain the step down into what will make a lot of individuals in the I-95 corridor very happy, if you like snow at least. Then I will touch upon my thoughts for the [...]

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New York City And Northern Suburbs Of Philadelphia Will Be Hit Hard On Friday

December 18th, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

7:14 AM
The forecast has become much clearer over the past six hours, but there is still a lot that can change for Friday. More on that in a minute.
For today, high pressure will build into the forecast area producing a CAD over the forecast area, which will allow cold air to build into the forecast [...]

Tags: accumulation, Albany, Allentown, amounts, area, Atlantic City, Belmar, Bridgeport, briefly, c line, cad, caution, clouds, cloudy skies, coast, cold, cold air, Connecticut, ensembles, evening temperatures, evenings, Fall, forecast, forecast area, forecast map, forecaster, forecasters, Freehold, friday evening, frontogenesis, gfs, guidance, Hartford, high, ice, intensity, Islip, late afternoon, Long Island, low, lows, map, maps, margin of error, metros, mid, mid level, Middlesex, Model Guidance, models, Monmouth, nam, New Jersey, New York, New York City, Newark, normal, north, northern monmouth county, opinions, Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Poughkeepsie, precipitation, Rain, Reading, Scranton, six hours, sleet, snow, snow event, snowfall, soundings, south, Storm, storms, Sussex, tights, Trenton, warm, weather, White Plains, Wild Wood, wills. Technical Discussions 3 Comments

Key For Winter Storms Is Strength Of High Pressure

December 17th, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

9:55 AM
The main theme and determining factor for the next two storms will play out over our neighbors to the north as strong Arctic high pressure ridges and builds over southeastern Canada and into New England. I’m going to focus on each storm separately in this post, however the overall theme remains the same.
FRIDAY THROUGH [...]

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Evening Thoughts-Icy Pattern Unfolding?

December 12th, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

8:47 PM
The model guidance is starting to come into better and better agreement with the upcoming pattern after Tuesday afternoon, which may have some very icy implications for the entire forecast area, even the coastal plain.
The main feature I want to focus on is the 12Z GFS, 18Z GFS, 12Z ECMWF, even GEFS ensemble [...]

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12Z GFS Thoughts

December 6th, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

I know what you are thinking. Holly cow look at the GFS! Yes, there are a lot of promising features shown in the GFS for the end of next week. The most promising of which is the convergence and confluence forecasted over the Great Lakes at 500 MB. This is KEY as to why the [...]

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Pattern Gets Active End Of Week, Pattern Shift Begins

December 5th, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

The patience of many will be tested this week, at least those that still look at the GFS beyond 180 hours. This week is the week of pattern shifts and changes, which will lead to one very tricky storm event for the end of the week. However, before I get to that, let me explain [...]

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Close Call Clipper For Sunday Morning

December 4th, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

Can you feel the excitement in the air? Well if you can then you might be thinking about the clipper redevelopment seen on guidance the past 24 hours and what this storm may mean for the forecast area.
Now remember I said that I didn’t like any significant snowfall forecast out of this storm because of [...]

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