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Premium Content Preview: Timing is everything

December 30th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

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7:52 AM
As with the theme for much of this winter so far, model guidance continues to appear a bit lost in the handling of short wave disturbances over North America. For the time period of Thursday night through Saturday night, there [...]

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A Back Door Cold Front That Means Business

March 17th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

7:14 AM
While many think of Spring as a time of green grass returning, warmer temperatures, and a quieter weather pattern; Spring also means the return for the difficult forecast phenomena of a back door cold front. A back door cold front is basically a cold front the develops over the Canadian Maritimes and drives southwestward [...]

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No Snow Storm, But Still Stormy

February 25th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

6:00 AM
Model guidance for this period is starting to come into line with my thinking of a basic non-event for the potential storm on Sunday night. Let say right off the bat, that I think the 00Z GFS over phased the disturbances on Sunday morning, which lead to the big rain storm on the model [...]

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Models Come Into Better Agreement This Morning On No Storm This Weekend

February 18th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

6:20 AM
Last night I discussed the fact that the 12Z ECWMF from yesterday was not a solution to be trusted given the overall state of the current atmospheric set up. There was some confusion by some about what I was saying. So let me be very detailed here.
1. Just because there is an upper low [...]

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A Miss And A Hit

February 12th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

7:04 AM
The evolution of this pattern is becoming more interesting by the day. As I discussed a few days ago, the pattern over the next 10 to 15 days will be dominated by a negative EPO/negative NAO pattern in the northern branch, while a strong upper low off the West coast will send disturbances through [...]

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Winter Returns With A Fast And Active Pattern

February 11th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

7:21 AM
If you want to know why the models are having a difficult time with the up coming pattern, just take a look at the water vapor satellite images. There is a train of disturbances on the way that is going to make this forecast a lot more complicated.
The overall theme has not changed [...]

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Models Coming Into Agreement For Significant Snow For Forecast Area

January 25th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

10:09 AM
Almost all the model guidance is beginning to come into agreement in the overall pattern idea, but there are still difference on exactly how the disturbances develop within the pattern.
Currently I don’t have much of a change in the forecast. My approach as far as model guidance is to take a combination of the [...]

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Defined Thoughts And Increasing Confidence

January 24th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

10:52 AM
I’m going to cover all the thoughts for the next seven (7) days in this one post. The reason is because the short and medium range periods are really interconnected so there’s no point in splitting them up. So get that coffee cup and prepare to read a lot. I’m going to add more [...]

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Evening Thoughts: Dance Of The Models

January 23rd, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

8:46 PM
The models did this. The models did that. We have a had a lake cutter, a major snow storm, a rain storm, and even no storm at all. So clearly, we should hug the models from run to run.
The basic overall pattern idea has not changed one bit. The 12Z guidance theme was [...]

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Time To Take A Stand In Uneven Sand

January 23rd, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

7:46 AM
Sink or swim, I am going to take a stand of where I think this pattern and the set up from Sunday night through Thursday ends up. As you know, I’ve been taking a cue from the pattern similar to this set up from the PDII storm, stating that the set up is rather [...]

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