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Tag Archive for 'enso'

Cold, Wintery, And Very Difficult Forecast Period

Making this forecast has been and will continue to be very difficult.  I want to touch on some important themes with the pattern as a whole and the state of the model guidance before diving into the actual forecast.
I believe we are about to enter a significant cold, and stormy pattern for much of the [...]

Long Range Model Thoughts

I know a lot of people are freaking out about the GFS forecast runs past 240 hours from the 12Z to 00Z of last night.  I want to say a word on this situation, which shows a “warm” solution setting up.  First, please for your own sake, stop yourself from looking at these solutions, cold [...]

Cold Turkey On The Way

All evening I’ve been looking at a lot of long range data to see how my winter forecast is holding up.  Let me tell you, the signals are very promising for those that like cold, stormy, and snowy weather conditions.
The basic observations I have been studying with the past few patterns is interesting.  For example, [...]

My Winter Forecast For 2008/09

It is once again that time of year where snow lovers across the Northeast and Mid Atlantic have one question and one desire.  Will my back yard see plenty of white or brown mud?  
Before I go into detail about my winter forecast, I want to explain how I developed and produced the theory for [...]

Working On Winter Forecast

I’ll be working on the winter forecast through this afternoon and evening hours.  At this point I have about 15 pages written about this winter.  Don’t worry, I’m going to condense it after I’m done.  
I know the big tool to use in long range forecasting is looking at an index, say the PDO, and [...]



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