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Tag Archive for 'evaporation'

Moisture advances as rain develops

7:43 AM
This morning, a cold front is sliding south through the Philadelphia metropolitan area with little in the way of rainfall yet a significant change in conditions as much cooler air builds into the forecast area.
Much of the region is overcast with a strengthening east to northeasterly wind around 5 to 15 mph.  However, no [...]

Suppressed Storm Track Leads To Mostly Dry Conditions This Weekend

5:55 AM
The upper level pattern this morning pretty much can tell the whole story for this coming weekend.  The negative NAO has matured and is pretty strong for mid March.  The strong convergence over eastern Canada is supporting strong high pressure over the Great Lakes and Northeast.  At the same time, a sheared out disturbance [...]

Light Snow Has Started In Freehold

7:04 PM
At around 6:30 PM, right around when I was going out to fuel up on coffee from D&D, light snow started to fall over Freehold, New Jersey.  The snow is very light and wet, which means that initially the snow will have some difficulty in sticking to surfaces.  Current temperatures in slightly above freezing, [...]

The Key To The Boundary Layer, Wind Direction

1:35 PM
There has been a lot of discussion as to the magnitude of the cold air within the boundary layer.  The key to this discussion lies in the wind direction this afternoon.
Note the latest observations to the left via RAP.UCAR.  Note that the entire forecast area has north to northeasterly winds, which is keeping the [...]

Precipitation Rapidly Developing And Expanding

10:56 PM
Precipitation is rapidly developing over the forecast area as expected from the previous post.  What we can expect in the coming hours is that precipitation shield will continue to expand and solidify over the Philadelphia metro, throughout New Jersey, and over the New York City metro.  With dew points in the lower to mid [...]

Expect Temperatures To Fall Over The Next Few Hours

With precipitation entering the forecast area, expect temperatures to fall into the mid to upper 20’s through out the forecast area.  Current dew points range from the single digits to upper 10’s at this hour.  As precipitation enters the forecast area, initially virga or precipitation that does not reach the ground due to evaporation, will [...]

Yesterday’s Concerns Coming To Fruition

4:09 PM
Yesterday morning, I posted a forecast and discussion about my concerns that at least light to possibly moderate snow will build into coastal New Jersey through Connecticut this evening with lighter snow’s to the north and west.  I admit I did back off on that idea after seeing just about every model I could [...]

Careful Thoughts

1:15 PM
The past few hours sure have been interesting in model guidance and when looking at the observations.
Precipitation is breaking out over the Delmarva, Maryland, and beginning to develop all over Virginia.  Pressure falls are still developing over the Southeast, but the primary low is still in the Great Lakes.  As a result, warm air [...]

Arctic Blast Means Business

7:48 AM
Obviously the news of the Arctic Blast that will impact the forecast area on Thursday through Sunday has been talked about in several areas.
The main threat I want to convey about this air mass is not to take this situation likely.  I have a strong feeling that the MOS guidance is still too warm [...]



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