Archive for evening hours
Winds decline as high pressure takes hold
Posted by: | Comments4:00 PM 09/08/10
The cold front from this morning will continue to move into the Atlantic as a strong area of low pressure over Quebec drives to the northeast towards the Canadian Maritimes. The combination of high pressure over the Ohio Valley and Mid West and the strong low pressure over Quebec lead to a strong pressure gradient, which supported sustained winds of 10 to as high as 25 mph with higher gusts this afternoon. The pressure gradient will continue to decline through the evening hours as the pressure gradient weakens.
High pressure will be in control tonight through Saturday with clear skies, low humidity, light winds, and temperatures ranging from the upper 40′s to upper 50′s for lows and lower to mid 70′s for highs. However, the high pressure system will not remain in control for long.
The remnants of Hermine will interact with a strong upper level trough and cold front over the Ohio Valley. This low pressure system will move towards the Delaware coast with periods of moderate rainfall throughout the New York City and Philadelphia metropolitan area on Sunday afternoon. Rainfall amounts will range from a quarter to a half an inch with locally higher amounts. The low pressure system will exit quickly with clearing skies by Sunday night.
High pressure will take hold on Monday and Tuesday with clear skies before a strong cold front moves through on Wednesday morning with scattered showers. Much cooler conditions can be expected by Wednesday afternoon.
For details on your location, visit the NY NJ PA Weather Local Seven Day Forecast!
-- Weather When Posted --
- Temperature: 89°F;
- Humidity: 25%;
- Heat Index: 89°F;
- Wind Chill: 89°F;
- Pressure: 29.72 in.;
Pleasant conditions continue through the week
Posted by: | Comments11:40 AM 09/06/10
High pressure will continue to provide excellent weather conditions today through Tuesday with light and variable winds, clear skies, and temperatures averaging near normal.
The cool, Canadian air mass will being to moderate by tomorrow afternoon as the high pressure system will be off the East coast, thus leading to a stronger southwesterly winds over the Northern Mid Atlantic. Temperatures will rebound into the 80′s along with slightly higher humidity.
A cold front front, currently in the Plains, will move through the Northern Mid Atlantic on Wednesday morning with a few scattered showers, however no heavy rainfall is expected. In fact most locations will remain dry as this cold front moves through. Skies will clear by the afternoon and evening hours with very comfortable weather conditions once again.
High pressure will regain control Thursday through next weekend with clear skies, light winds, and temperatures ranging from the upper 60′s to mid 70′s for highs and mid 40′s to mid 50′s for lows. The coolest conditions will be found in the interior and protected valleys.
For information on your location, visit the NY NJ PA Weather Local Seven Day Forecast!
-- Weather When Posted --
- Temperature: 73°F;
- Humidity: 38%;
- Heat Index: 77°F;
- Wind Chill: 73°F;
- Pressure: 30.26 in.;
Unsettled weekend expected as back door cold front lingers
Posted by: | Comments08/11/10 9:40 AM
A cold front currently over New England is going to create some problems for those looking to enjoy this up coming weekend.
Note the high pressure system over the Hudson Bay. This high pressure system is expected to move towards Quebec and eventually towards the Canadian Maritimes over the next several days, and that is bad news for the Northern Mid Atlantic, especially for out door activities.
A cold front currently over northern New England is going to move south and west through the Northern Mid Atlantic this evening. Clouds will increase through the day with a isolated to widely scattered shower or thunderstorm possible in the late afternoon to early evening hours. Temperatures today will continue to hover around 90 degrees with high levels of humidity.
As the cold front drops south, a marine air mass will build into the region, initially over Connecticut and eastern Long Island this evening and then the rest of the New York City and Philadelphia metropolitan area overnight. A stark change in the air mass will be felt by tomorrow morning. For one, more cloud cover and a higher threat for scattered showers will present itself, but also a marked decrease in high temperatures in the afternoon as highs struggle to reach the lower to mid 80′s. The cold front will become a wavering semi-stationary boundary over the Philadelphia metropolitan area by Friday afternoon through this weekend, which will keep broken to overcast cloud cover over the region, an east to southeasterly wind, and a constant threat of showers through the weekend. I don’t expect a wash out, but this weekend will pale in comparison to the previous weekends. Some locations however will be under a stronger influence of the high pressure system to the northeast with clearing skies possible at times for eastern Connecticut and eastern Long Island. Otherwise, a rather unsettled weather pattern can be expected for this weekend.
By Monday the stationary boundary will lift north and wash out. A new upper level pattern will take shape with a strong trough positioned over the Great Lakes. A strong southwesterly flow will lead to an increase in humidity and a return to highs around 90 for the start of next week. Additionally, a cold front will stall to the west of the region with several disturbances attempting to move southwest to northeast over the region. As a result, a constant threat of showers and strong to severe thunderstorms will return to the Northern Mid Atlantic as well.
So the next seven days look to be rather unsettled for the Northern Mid Atlantic. For details on your location, visit the NY NJ PA Weather Local Seven Day Forecast!
-- Weather When Posted --
- Temperature: 82°F;
- Humidity: 61%;
- Heat Index: 85°F;
- Wind Chill: 82°F;
- Pressure: 29.89 in.;
Premium Discussion Overview for August 5, 2010
Posted by: | CommentsA cold front is expected to move through the Northern Mid Atlantic with the threat for strong to severe thunderstorms, how much severe weather can we expect? Get the details with the Premium Discussions! Get details on becoming a Premium Member here!
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-- Weather When Posted --
- Temperature: 80°F;
- Humidity: 69%;
- Heat Index: 83°F;
- Wind Chill: 80°F;
- Pressure: 29.73 in.;
Cold front brings threat of severe thunderstorms tomorrow
Posted by: | Comments5:00 PM 8/04/10
With a lack of lifting over the Philadelphia and New York City metropolitan area this afternoon, no thunderstorms developed aside from a few stray thunderstorms this morning along the southern New Jersey coast. The majority of the lifting was focused over the Ohio Valley and eastern Great Lakes were powerful thunderstorms have developed. However, due to the lack of thunderstorms, temperatures were able to reach the lower 90′s while dew points pushed into the 70′s leading to a rather humid and uncomfortable afternoon.
Strong to severe thunderstorms are developing over western Pennsylvania and West Virginia this afternoon. These thunderstorms are not expected to reach the Philadelphia metropolitan area this evening, however the complex that is developing will have some indirect impacts on the forecast.
A Mesoscale Convective System or MCS is forming over West Virginia and will drive towards the Maryland and Virginia coast overnight. This MCS can lead to the development of sinking air to the north of the track, which happens to be the Philadelphia and New York City metropolitan area. This is a very important development!
The overall idea of the going forecast is that the cold front responsible for these thunderstorms will move through the region tomorrow afternoon with a line of strong to severe thunderstorms. However, if the MCS creates subsidence or sinking air over the region, then the thunderstorms will either become very weak or not develop at all. So I will be monitoring the develops of this MCS tonight into tomorrow morning. Otherwise, I expect a line of strong to severe thunderstorms to impact the New York City and Philadelphia metropolitan area beginning at noon and continuing on through the early evening hours.
Behind the cold front, high pressure will take hold by the late evening hours on Thursday. However, the polar air mass behind this cold front will not reach the Northern Mid Atlantic until Friday afternoon as dew points crash into the 50′s in the afternoon and evening. A quiet weekend is expected through with clear skies, high temperatures in the 80′s, low temperatures in the 50′s and lower 60′s, and most importantly low humidity!
High pressure will me off the coast for Monday through Wednesday with an increase in humidity and a return to highs in the mid 80′s to lower 90′s.
For details on your location, visit the NY NJ PA Weather Local Seven Day Forecast!
-- Weather When Posted --
- Temperature: 86°F;
- Humidity: 62%;
- Heat Index: 92°F;
- Wind Chill: 86°F;
- Pressure: 29.83 in.;
Pleasant evening is expected as high pressure remains in control
Posted by: | Comments07/26/10 2:40 PM
I have some good news for those looking to lower your electric bill, tonight you can leave the windows open and the air conditioner off!
Temperatures this evening will fall through the 70′s and into the 60′s for lows tonight under clear skies and low humidity as Canadian high pressure over the Ohio Valley slowly drifts towards the Mid Atlantic coast. High pressure will remain in control through Wednesday morning ensuring tranquil and comfortable conditions through the start of this week. Temperatures will remain warm with highs in the 80′s and lower 90′s tomorrow afternoon, however with dew points in the 50′s and lower 60′s, humidity levels will remain low making conditions outside rather pleasant.
However, this summer stretches of low humidity and comfortable conditions do not last long and this case is no different. High pressure will be to the east of the Mid Atlantic by Wednesday morning, which means a southwesterly wind will return and thus the low level moisture. Dew points will increase through the day on Wednesday along with clouds as a warm front travels north through the Northern Mid Atlantic. Along with the increase in humidity will come a risk of showers and strong to severe thunderstorms late on Wednesday afternoon into the evening hours.
A cold front will follow on Thursday. At this time, the timing of the cold front appears to be around noon to 2 PM, which will not allow for the air mass in place to become unstable to optimal potential. However, any delay in the timing will increase the potential for an unstable air mass and thus the potential for severe weather on Thursday afternoon.
High pressure will return from Canada on Friday and remain in control through Monday with very favorable results. Much like today, high pressure will produce clear skies, low humidity, and excellent weather conditions for any and all out door activity. I would hazard to say that next weekend may be the best weekend thus far of the summer. The humidity starting to increase along with the high temperatures by Monday as the high pressure system exits into the Atlantic, but no precipitation is expected throughout the entire period.
For details on your location, visit the NY NJ PA Weather Local Seven Day Forecast!
-- Weather When Posted --
- Temperature: 84°F;
- Humidity: 37%;
- Heat Index: 84°F;
- Wind Chill: 84°F;
- Pressure: 30.03 in.;
Hot and humid with thunderstorms once again
Posted by: | Comments07/20/10 9:12 AM
After a very active severe weather day yesterday, another risk of thunderstorms is developing to the west of the Philadelphia metropolitan area. However, unlike yesterday, severe thunderstorms will be isolated in nature rather than the wide spread event from yesterday.
A strong upper level disturbance is moving east towards the Philadelphia and New York City metropolitan area. This area of showers and thunderstorms is expected to impact the Northern Mid Atlantic this afternoon with period of heavy rain along with embedded strong to severe thunderstorms.
The majority of the thunderstorms will remain below severe levels, however a few isolated thunderstorms capable of wind gusts over 50 mph will be possible as the air mass ahead of this disturbance rapidly destabilizes. The air mass will become unstable due to clear skies over the region now allowing temperatures to rapidly warm into the 80′s and eventually lower 90′s ahead of the thunderstorms.
This disturbance will exit into the Atlantic by later this afternoon with clearing skies by the evening hours. The rest of the week will continue to feature the same air mass regime with temperatures in the 80′s and 90′s for highs, lows in the 60′s and 70′s, morning fog, and afternoon thunderstorms. Each upper level disturbance that moves through the northern Mid Atlantic will have the potential to produce strong to severe thunderstorms as the lower levels of the atmosphere will have plenty of low level moisture to feed the developing thunderstorms.
Towards the end of this weekend, a stronger cold front is expected to move through the Northern Mid Atlantic. I suspect the model guidance is playing up the strength of the cold front too much, however a more wide spread threat of strong to severe thunderstorms can be expected on Sunday afternoon into Monday morning. Otherwise, I see no change in the overall characteristics of this pattern.
For details on your location, visit the NY NJ PA Weather Local Seven Day Forecast!
-- Weather When Posted --
- Temperature: 78°F;
- Humidity: 65%;
- Heat Index: 80°F;
- Wind Chill: 78°F;
- Pressure: 29.96 in.;
Dangerous heat wave continues
Posted by: | Comments07/05/10 8:38 AM
Record heat has already been recorded throughout the Philadelphia and New York City metropolitan area from this heat wave. The following are official high temperatures from yesterday that broke or tied records:
Trenton, New Jersey tied a record high of 99 degrees from 1999.
Kennedy Air Port, New York reached 101 degrees which ties a record from 1966!
Islip, New York reached 97 degrees which broke the high of 96 set in 2002!
Meanwhile, many other locations throughout the region were within 1 to 3 degrees of the locations records with highs in the upper 80′s to upper 90′s. Clearly, the heat is on!
As high pressure is now sitting off the Mid Atlantic coast, the introduction of more humidity into this equation will only make the situation worse. With dew points already exceeding 60 degrees throughout the region and expected to climb on the back of a strengthening southwesterly wind at all levels of the atmosphere, the heat index will be able to easily push beyond 100 degrees. This has lead to Excessive Heat Warnings, Heat Advisories, and Air Quality Alerts throughout the Philadelphia and New York City metropolitan area.
The hot and humid conditions will continue through tomorrow with no relief in sight. Similar conditions can be expected for Tuesday, with potentially even more humid conditions by tomorrow afternoon as the southwesterly flow will be set for a longer period of time. There is no threat of any precipitation through tomorrow afternoon, which means relief will have to be found at the beach or local pool.
A weakening trough will move through the northern Mid Atlantic on Wednesday afternoon with the threat of isolated strong to severe thunderstorms. These thunderstorms will develop after 2 PM and continue on through the evening hours. The primary threat for these thunderstorms will be the frequent lightning, heavy downpours, and strong wind gusts.
The heat and humidity will remain the primary theme for Thursday and Friday as little if any change in the air mass is expected. Another cold front will approach for Saturday with another round of showers and thunderstorms. This cold front has the potential to lower temperatures closer to normal with temperatures in the 80′s and 90′s rather than the 90′s and 100′s with also a drop in humidity. However, I do not expect this break to last much longer than Saturday afternoon and Sunday.
For details on your location, visit the NY NJ PA Weather Seven Day Forecast!
-- Weather When Posted --
- Temperature: 78°F;
- Humidity: 54%;
- Heat Index: 79°F;
- Wind Chill: 78°F;
- Pressure: 30.02 in.;
Hot and humid pattern becoming established
Posted by: | Comments06/12/10 10:22 AM
If you don’t like warm/hot and humid weather conditions, you are not going to like what I’m about to write. However, if you enjoy going to the beach every day, and don’t mind dodging a thunderstorm or two, you’ll probably enjoy much of the rest of June.
I always say, if you want to get a handle on the evolving weather pattern, study the water vapor satellite picture. Observations do not lie and there is no worry about convective feed back errors or any other wild cards when you start with observations. So this morning, we clear have a building ridge over the Southeast, Gulf Coast, and western Atlantic. The ridge is by no means matured, however we can already see the results as the stationary front forecasted to be over the northern Mid Atlantic is instead positioned over the Mohawk River Valley and central Hudson Valley. This is a significant difference in placement of surface features and as such I bumped up the highs for Connecticut and Long Island a bit.
The key point to take from this is that there is more support for this ridge than what the model guidance is suggesting and the reason for that can be found the MJO, which is moving well into a Stage 3 position. Such a set up has supported a developing Southeast ridge and will do so for some time. Further, we also know that a La Nina is rapidly in the Pacific, which also points to a building ridge along the Southeast and southern Mid Atlantic coast.
So the overall theme going forward from today on through next week is going to be a continued influence of a humid air mass that will lead to the constant threat of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening hours. Cold fronts and disturbances will continue to attempt to move through the region, however by the time the cold fronts reach the coasts, the difference between air masses will be small if any. A temporary drop in humidity for a day or so, but no really difference in high temperatures.
As for the thunderstorms, there will be a potential for a few of these thunderstorms to become severe, however most will remain just strong. The thunderstorms will last roundly 30 to 60 minutes on average, feature heavy downpours, strong winds, frequent lightning, and potentially some hail. While not every location will feature thunderstorms that day, the threat will remain present.
For details on your location, visit the NY NJ PA Weather Seven Day Forecast.
-- Weather When Posted --
- Temperature: 69°F;
- Humidity: 64%;
- Heat Index: 69°F;
- Wind Chill: 69°F;
- Pressure: 30.16 in.;
Hot and Humid Conditions return, thunderstorms this weekend
Posted by: | Comments06/04/10 7:30 AM
The severe threat for yesterday was limited unexpected by a very strong mid level disturbance that produced a wide variety of severe weather for Maryland and Virginia. Will the Philadelphia and New York City metropolitan areas remain as lucky for this weekend? Not likely.
Dry air at the mid levels will continue to move west into the northern Mid Atlantic from the Ohio Valley. The cold front, which is currently right along the New Jersey and New York coastal waters will slowly sink south through the day, which will keep the threat for showers and thunderstorms to the east of the region. I can’t rule out an isolated thunderstorm due to the heating that I expect today, but for the most part this sinking dry air will keep everyone relatively dry. However, most individuals will not feel dry nor comfortable. Temperatures today will soar into the 80′s and 90′s while dew points push into the lower to mid 60′s, possibly upper 60′s over southern New Jersey. The combination of these warm temperatures and dew points in the 60′s will lead to rather hot and humid conditions for this afternoon.
Similar conditions can be expected tomorrow afternoon as the northern Mid Atlantic remains in the hot and humid air mass ahead of an approaching cold front. The latest forecasted soundings for tomorrow strongly suggest the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms throughout the region. The air mass will be highly unstable, strong upper level support will be in place to the northwest, and there are indications for strong vertical and speed shear. More details in the severe weather analysis for Premium Members!
The cold front will slowly exit on Sunday morning with lingering showers and thunderstorms, although much weaker in intensity, through much of the morning. The showers and thunderstorms will exit on Sunday afternoon with slow clearing through the evening hours. A much cooler air mass will build into the Philadelphia and New York City metropolitan area thereafter with highs returning to near normal levels, in the 70′s and lower 80′s.
High pressure will take control for the start of next week with dry conditions, temperatures near normal, and comfortable levels of humidity. However, another disturbance will approach on Wednesday and Thursday with another round of showers and thunderstorms for the region. Temperatures will begin to moderate however as a large ridge begins to become established.
For more details on your location, visit NY NJ PA Weather’s Seven Day Forecast!
-- Weather When Posted --
- Temperature: 69°F;
- Humidity: 77%;
- Heat Index: 69°F;
- Wind Chill: 69°F;
- Pressure: 29.81 in.;
Freehold
57°
Albany
59°
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