Tag Archive for 'extent' at NY NJ PA Weather Forecasts

Tricky Forecast, To Snow Or Not To Snow

December 30th, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

7:55 AM
Going into this period, I was hoping that model guidance would improve in sheilding some light on the events that will play out on Friday. To some extent, the guidance has given me a better idea of what to expect here. The general consencious is that the clipper to drive towards the Great Lakes [...]

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12Z Thoughts And The Friday Evening Winter Event

December 28th, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

4:09 PM
I’m sure everyone has seen the latest 12Z guidance. The GFS is having trouble with the upper level features and the ECMWF is beginning to strut it’s stuff in the type 3 to 7 day span of dominance of accuracy.
Do I believe the ECMWF, well to an extent yes. I don’t want to put [...]

Tags: Albany, Allentown, area, Atlantic, Atlantic City, bombs, Boston, cad, central Pennsylvania, city metro, clipper, coast, coastal plain, cold, Connecticut, continuation, Disturbance, dominance, east, ecmwf, england, eve, evenings, extent, Fall, forecast, forecaster, forecasters, Freehold, front, gfs, greenland, guidance, Hartford, high, horses, Hudson Valley, important factors, intensification, Islip, Jets, level features, light snow, Long Island, low, lows, maximums, mb level, mid, Model Guidance, models, moderate snow, moderation, nam, New Jersey, New York, New York City, Newark, north, northern pennsylvania, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, plains, Poughkeepsie, precipitation, pva, Ridge, s, Scranton, Shear, snow, south, span, specifics, Storm, storm track, storms, surfaces, Sussex, thermal gradient, thursday morning, tights, type 3, ukmet, valleys, Virginia, wills, Winter, winter storm, wrf. Technical Discussions Add a comment

The Trends For Friday Night And Saturday Are Reasons For Concern

December 17th, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

2:51 PM
If you don’t like snow and ice that is.
I know a lot of people and some forecasters like to take model data verbatum, but frankly that’s rarely a good idea. What I want to point out is some interesting trends in the data, which will be important to keep an eye on going [...]

Tags: 00z, Albany, Allentown, area, Atlantic City, Belmar, Bridgeport, canadian guidance, coastal locations, cold, cold model, Connecticut, continuation, evenings, extent, extremes, ey, forecast, forecast area, forecaster, forecasters, Freehold, friday night, gfs, guidance, Hartford, Hudson Valley, ice, Islip, Long Island, low, lows, metros, model data, model family, Model Guidance, models, New Jers Newark, New York, New York City, northeastern Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, philadelphia metro, Poughkeepsie, Rain, rain event, Reading, Scranton, sleet, snow, snow and ice, snow event, snow sleet, south, Sussex, ukmet, valleys, warm, White Plains, Wild Wood, wills. Technical Discussions Add a comment

Warm Or Cold, It’s All Up To The EPO

December 13th, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

9:00 AM
You got to love the model guidance this year. Rain, snow, rain, snow. Well, let’s through in some ice and then some wild long range pattern forecasts.
Time to get back to the basics, and the best way to do that is to look at the overall pattern that has been and continues to [...]

Tags: 30mb, alarm bells, Albany, Allentown, area, Atlantic, Atlantic City, atmosphere, Belmar, Bridgrt, caa, coast, cold, cold air, confluence, Connecticut, continuation, convection, convergence, crash, discussion, Disturbance, driving force, ecmwf, epo, evenings, evolution, exact location, extent, forecast, forecaster, Freehold, front, gfs, guidance, Hartford, high, ice, Islip, lifting, Long Island, low, lows, Mexico, mid, Model Guidance, models, moisture, New Jersey, New York, New York City, Newark, normal, Northeast, northern hemisphere, Pennsylvania, periods, Philadelphia, plains, Poughkeepsie, precipitation, Rain, rain snow, Reading, real time, Scranton, sleet, snow, south, stratosphere, Sussex, systems, temperature, temperatures, Tropical, tropics, tuesday afternoon, warm, west, west coast, White Plains, Wild Wood, wills, Winter. Technical Discussions Add a comment

Warm Start To Next Week Gives Way To Cold And Stormy End

December 12th, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

7:25 AM
The forecast area remains locked in a roller coaster of temperatures with wild swings from warm to cold. Another rise and fall in temperatures is expected for the next week as well.
A ridge will continue to build at 500 MB as a trough is carved out over the Pacific Northwest and Plains. The [...]

Tags: Albany, Allentown, area, Atlantic, Atlantic City, Belmar, Bport, canada, cold, cold air mass, cold press, confluence, Connecticut, continuation, convergence, crash, east, ecmwf, extent, extremes, Fall, forecast, forecast area, forecaster, Freehold, front, frontogenesis, gfs, Great Lakes, guidance, Hartford, high, ice, illustrations, Islip, Long Island, low, lows, mid, Mid Atlantic, mid level, Model Guidance, models, moderation, New Jersey, New York, New York City, Newark, normal, north, north norther, Northeast, pacific northwest, Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, plains, Poughkeepsie, pva, Rain, Rainfall, Reading, Ridge, rise and fall, roller coaster, s, Scranton, shape, snow, south, Storm, storm events, storms, Sussex, swing, swings, systems, temperature, temperatures, thermal gradient, time of year, Trough, waa, warm, waves, west, White Plains, Wild Wood, wills. Technical Discussions Add a comment

Scattered Snow Showers Tonight

November 20th, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

A strengthening clipper (low pressure system) is moving through the forecast area and producing some scattered snow showers over the forecast area. Specifically, southeastern Pennsylvania and southern/central New Jersey will continue to have a band of light snow showers move through the region tonight with a dusting possible over some locations as temperatures continue to [...]

Tags: Albany, Allentown, area, Atlantic City, Belmar, black ice, Bridgeport, caution, clipper, Connecticut, continuation, Erie, evenings, extent, Fall, forecast, forecast area, forecaster, Freehold, Hartford, ice, Islip, lake erie, light snow showers, long distance, Long Island, low, lows, New Jersey, New York, New York City, Newark, Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Poughkeepsie, Reading, s, Scranton, showers, snow, snow band, southeastern Pennsylvania, surprise, Sussex, systems, temperature, temperatures, tomorrow morning, White Plains, Wild Wood, wills. Technical Discussions Add a comment

A Very Wet Night And Thursday Expected

November 5th, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

As we can see in the water vapor satellite image, the upper low associated with the coastal low off the Delmarva Peninsula has not only formed, but continues to intensify. As the easterly fetch drives Atlantic moisture into the forecast area, strong mid and upper level forcing will support steady moderate to heavy rainfall along [...]

Tags: Albany, Allentown, area, Atlantic, Atlantic City, Belmar, Bridgeport, coastal plain, Coastal Storm, coastal waters, Connecticut, continuation, delmarva peninsula, evening winds, evenings, extent, Fall, forecast, forecast area, forecaster, Freehold, gusts, Hartford, Islip, Long Island, lows, moderation, moisture, New Jersey, New York, New York City, Newark, Pennsylvania, periods, Philadelphia, plains, Poughkeepsie, Rain, Reading, satellite, satellite image, Scranton, Storm, storms, Sussex, tomorrow afternoon, water vapor satellite, wet night, White Plains, Wild Wood, windy. Technical Discussions Add a comment

The AO Continues To Fall

October 31st, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

I’m going to keep track of the Arctic Oscillation over the next few weeks and months as I think the AO will be a driving influence on the overall pattern and give us a good indication on what to expect.
Once again, we see a continuation of the free falling AO. We are still in a [...]

Tags: Albany, Allentown, ao, arctic oscillation, arctic regions, Atlantic City, Belmar, Bridgeport, cold, cold air, Connecticut, continuation, extent, extreme side, extremes, Fall, forecast, forecaster, Freehold, guidance, Hartford, Islip, Long Island, mid latitudes, n stratosphere, nao, New Jersey, New York, New York City, Newark, Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Poughkeepsie, Reading, Scranton, standard deviation, stratospheric temperatures, Sussex, tank, temperature, temperatures, White Plains, Wild Wood. Technical Discussions Add a comment