Tag Archive for 'extremes' at NY NJ PA Weather Forecasts

Significant Snow Storm Expected For The Forecast Area

January 9th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

7:42 AM
I was really tempted to issue a Stage 3 Alert for locastions from Philadelphia through the New York City metro including central New Jersey and the southern Hudson Valley and Connecticut. However, I think it would be wise to wait for 12Z guidance to confirm the trends and developments I am seeing this morning.
My [...]

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Significant Snow Finally On The Way?

January 8th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

7:37 AM
There is a growing agreement in the model guidance that a significant snowfall will impact much of the forecast area.
There’s a lot to discuss, but my ideas which I have presented have not changed overall, but I am able now to get in to some details on how this storm will develop on Saturday.
First, [...]

Tags: accumulation, Albany, amounts, amplification, area, atmosphere, boarder, cloudy weather, coast, cold, cold period, degree c, discussion, ecmwf, evenings, extremes, Fall, forecast, forecast area, forecaster, forecasters, frontogenesis, gfs, guidance, high, Jets, lifting, low, low pressure system, lows, map, mb temperatures, metros, mid, Model Guidance, models, nam, normal, normals, north, Ohio, periods, Philadelphia, precipitation, pva, qpf, rain areas, Ridge, s, sleet, snow, snowfall, soundings, south, sref, Storm, storms, systems, temperature, temperatures, ukmet, valleys, warm, watches, weather, weather conditions, west, wills. Technical Discussions 3 Comments

Heavy Ice And Rain To Continue Through This Afternoon

January 7th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

7:27 AM
The forecast for the next three days is obviously going to be the most active in the next 24 hours.
Currently, a coastal low pressure system is developing off the New Jersey coast. Winds along the coast are beginning to turn to the northwest over southern New Jersey and northeast along Long Island, clearly indicating [...]

Tags: afternoon hours, amounts, area, boarder, cape may county, central hudson, coast, coastal plain, cold, Connecticut, continuation, county, delmarva, delmarva penninsula, Disturbance, dry slot, early afternoon, east, er, extremes, forecast, forecast area, forecaster, forecasters, freezing rain, heaviest rainfall, Hudson Valley, ice, Long Island, low, lows, normal, normals, north, Northeast, northeastern Pennsylvania, Northwest, Ohio, Pennsylvania, plains, precipitation, Rain, Rainfall, showers, signs, snow, Storm, storms, Sussex, systems, temperature, temperatures, transition, transitions, valleys, warm, western areas, wills. Technical Discussions Add a comment

The January Outlook

January 1st, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

7:40 PM
December has come and gone along with all the holiday cheer, it’s time to look to see what the rest of January holds for the forecast area. Will the negative NAO be a major factor? Will the Pacific get back into the game or will January be a warm and boring month?
The basic idea [...]

Tags: alaska, Albany, Allentown, amplification, anomalies, Atlantic, Atlantic City, atlantic sst, atmosphere, Belmar, blocking, Bridgrt, canada, clipper, clippers, coast, cold, Connecticut, continuation, digs, Disturbance, dominance, epo, extreme cold, extremes, forecast, forecast area, forecaster, forecasters, Freehold, game, games, guidance, Hartford, high, higher latitudes, Hudson Valley, ice, interaction, Islip, latitude, Long Island, low, lows, mid, models, nao, New Jersey, New York, New York City, Newark, north, North America, north pole, northern asia, Ohio, pacific waters, Pennsylvania, periods, Philadelphia, Poughkeepsie, Rain, relaxation, Ridge, Rockies, Scranton, sea surface temperatures, signature, slides, snow, snowfall, Southeast, Southwest, sst, state of flux, Storm, storms, stratosphere, surfaces, Sussex, temperature, temperatures, Trenton, troposphere, tropospheric temperatures, Trough, troughs, upper atmosphere, valleys, warm, weeke, White Plains, Wild Wood, wills, Winter, winter events. Technical Discussions Add a comment

New Year’s Eve Snow And The Developing Cold And Stormy Pattern

December 29th, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

7:26 AM
The negative NAO pattern is well on the way of developing and the first clipper that will impact the forecast area will help to enhance the 50/50 low that will be a major player in the later pattern. First though, let’s discuss the next three days.
High pressure will slide through the forecast area today [...]

Tags: air mass, Albany, Allentown, area, Atlantic City, atmosphere, Belmar, Bridgeport, central Pennsylvania, chills, clipper, cloudy conditions, cold, Connecticut, crash, discussion, Disturbance, east, eve, extremes, forecast, forecast area, forecaster, forecasters, Freehold, Hartford, high, Hudson Valley, Islip, Long Island, low, lows, map, maps, Milliville, moderate snow, moderation, nao, New Jersey, new year, New York, New York City, Newark, normal, north, northern pennsylvania, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, polar air, Poughkeepsie, pressure gradient, s, Scranton, showers, slides, snow, snow showers, snowfall, Sussex, temperature, temperatures, Trenton, valleys, west, White Plains, Wild Wood, wills, zonal flow. Technical Discussions Add a comment

Winter Returns, But Questions Remain

December 28th, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

10:22 AM
The up coming forecast for the middle and end of this week is going to be very difficult. The overall idea here on all model guidance is that the negative NAO block will be established while a series of clippers move through the forecast area. One clipper intensifies, and produces a strong Miller B [...]

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Warm Sunday Followed By Cold And Stormy Period

December 28th, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

9:45 AM
In case anyone woke up this morning and was worried if they slept for the past three months, yes it is December 28th and yes it is near 60 degrees already.
Enjoy the warm conditions while you can because they are about to come to an abrupt end. A strong cold front over the eastern [...]

Tags: advection, air mass, area, blocking, clear skies, clipper, cold, cold air, cold front, december 28th, england, extremes, Fall, forecast, forecast area, forecaster, forecasters, front, high, low, low pressure system, lows, mid, mid hudson valley, monday night, nao, New England, New York City, night temperatures, normal, Ohio, periods, Philadelphia, philadelphia regions, s, scattered showers, showers, snow, snow showers, systems, temperature, temperatures, three months, thunderstorm, thunderstorms, valleys, warm, weeke, wills. Technical Discussions Add a comment

Difficult Forecast With Huge Bust Potential And Significant Ice And Snow Amounts

December 19th, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

12:21 AM
You know, model guidance is suppose to get better and into strong agreement less than 24 hours away from an event. Unfortuantly for the forecast area and this forecaster, that was not the case tonight as the GFS went extreme warm and the NAM/WRF went colder.
So with no trust what so ever in [...]

Tags: accumulation, Albany, Allentown, amounts, area, Atlantic, Atlantic City, atmosphere, axis, Belmar, Bport, bust, caa, cad, city metro, coast, cold, confluence, Connecticut, continuation, convection, convergence, csi, discussion, Disturbance, england, evenings, extremes, Fall, forecast, forecast area, forecaster, Freehold, freezing rain, gfs, guidance, Hartford, high, ice, illustrations, intensity, Islip, lifting, Long Island, look at the wind, low, lows, map, maps, metros, mid, Mid Atlantic, Mid West, Middlesex, Model Guidance, models, moderation, Monmouth, nam, New Jersey, New York, New York City, Newark, north, north norther, Northeast, observation, observations, omega, opinions, Pennsylvania, periods, Philadelphia, plains, Poughkeepsie, precipitation, Rain, rain mix, Reading, Ridge, ridge axis, s, Scranton, scream, signals, sleet, smq, snow, snow sleet, snowfall, soundings, south, Southwest, Storm, storms, subsidence, Sussex, swatch, systems, temperature, temperatures, tights, Trenton, unfortuantly, valleys, warm, west, White Plains, Wild Wood, wills, wrf. Technical Discussions Add a comment

The Trends For Friday Night And Saturday Are Reasons For Concern

December 17th, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

2:51 PM
If you don’t like snow and ice that is.
I know a lot of people and some forecasters like to take model data verbatum, but frankly that’s rarely a good idea. What I want to point out is some interesting trends in the data, which will be important to keep an eye on going [...]

Tags: 00z, Albany, Allentown, area, Atlantic City, Belmar, Bridgeport, canadian guidance, coastal locations, cold, cold model, Connecticut, continuation, evenings, extent, extremes, ey, forecast, forecast area, forecaster, forecasters, Freehold, friday night, gfs, guidance, Hartford, Hudson Valley, ice, Islip, Long Island, low, lows, metros, model data, model family, Model Guidance, models, New Jers Newark, New York, New York City, northeastern Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, philadelphia metro, Poughkeepsie, Rain, rain event, Reading, Scranton, sleet, snow, snow and ice, snow event, snow sleet, south, Sussex, ukmet, valleys, warm, White Plains, Wild Wood, wills. Technical Discussions Add a comment

Heading Off For Some Rest

December 16th, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

10:50 PM
I’m going to head off and get some sleep as it looks like I’m going to be pretty busy tomorrow morning with the major updates when all the 00Z data comes in.
I’m generally pleased with the forecast and feel that the majority of the snowfall accumulation forecasts are running right about on schedule. Temperatures [...]

Tags: accumulation, Add new tag, Albany, Allentown, area, Atlantic City, Belmar, Bridgeport, central hudson, coast, Connecticut, continuation, extremes, forecast, forecaster, Freehold, freezing rain, Hartford, Hudson Valley, Islip, Long Island, New Jersey, New York, New York City, Newark, northeastern Pennsylvania, northern connecticut, observation, observations, Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Poughkeepsie, Rain, Reading, Scranton, sleep, sleet, snow, snow sleet, snowfall, snowfall accumulation, Sussex, temperatures, tomorrow morning, updates, valleys, warm, White Plains, Wild Wood, wills. Technical Discussions Add a comment