Extremes | NY NJ PA Weather Forecasts

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Active Sub Tropical Jet to play important role next several weeks

February 1st, 2010 by Steven DiMartino

8:05 AM
High pressure centered over the Ohio Valley is supporting yet another cold morning with temperatures in the teens and lower 20’s. Although cold, the air mass is already starting to moderate from the Arctic extremes experienced this past weekend, especially over the northern tier.
The water vapor this morning illustrates that developing Sub Tropical jet [...]

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What has caused the heavy rainfall this month?

June 21st, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

9:52 AM
June has seen some very impressive rainfall amounts with many locations well over an inch above normal. Even some locations double the amount of normal rainfall. While a continuous onslaught of showers and thunderstorms have impacted much of the Mid Atlantic, and specifically the New York City and Philadelphia metropolitan areas, other locations have [...]

Tags: air, Albany, Allentown, Allentown PA, amounts, anomalies, anomaly, area, Atlantic, Atlantic City, atlantic city nj, atlantic ocean, atmosphere, Belmar, blocking, Bridgeport, bridgeport ct, canada, Citi Field, coast, coastal waters, cold, combinations, Connecticut, continuation, continuous onslaught, convection, convective, Disturbance, east, enhancement, Examiner, explaination, explanations, extremes, forecast, forecaster, forecasters, Freehold, freehold nj, front, greenland, hail, Hartford, heavy rain, high, hightstown nj, interaction, Islip, islip ny, Jets, jfk, latitude, lifting, lightning, Long Island, Long Island Sound, low, lows, magnitude, map, maps, Mets, Mexico, mid, millville nj, Mississippi, Mississippi Valley, moisture, nao, new brunswick nj, New Jersey, New Jersey coast, New York, New York City, Newark, newark nj, normal, normals, north, northe, Northeast, norwich ct, Ocean, Ohio, orientation, pa 1, Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, philadelphia pa, Phillies, plains, Poughkeepsie, precipitation, precipitation anomalies, precipitation events, precipitations, radar, Rainfall, Rainfall Amounts, Reading, Ridge, Scranton, severe weather, showers, south, southe, specifics, stratosphere, Summer, surfaces, Sussex, sussex nj, synoptic, temperature, temperatures, thunderstorm, thunderstorms, tides, tornado, tornado outbreaks, tornadoes, Trough, troughs, valleys, warm, weather, weeke, White Plains, Wild Wood, wills, Yankee Stadium, Yankees. Technical Discussions Closed

Severe weather continues over Cape May, New Jersey and points south

June 3rd, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

8:55 PM
The cold front that will like plaque the forecast area for the next two days is slowly slipping south through Cape May County, New Jersey and the Delaware Bay this evening. Strong to severe thunderstorms continue to impact much of Cape May County this evening as moderate instability remains in the atmosphere. However, as [...]

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Pacific pattern begins to take hold by this weekend

March 24th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

7:29 AM
The exit of an area of low pressure on Friday morning will finally break the grip of Arctic air over the forecast area that has influenced the region for the first half of this week. Warmer modified Pacific air will flood into the forecast area on Friday as high pressure positions itself to the [...]

Tags: alaska, Albany, Allentown, arctic air, area, Atlantic, Atlantic City, axis, Belmar, Bridgrt, canada, central ontario, clouds, coast, cold, cold front, Connecticut, CONUS, epo, evenings, exiting, extremes, flood, flooding, floods, forecast, forecast area, forecaster, forecasters, Freehold, friday morning, front, fundamental change, Great Lakes, Hartford, heavy rain, high, Islip, Jets, Long Island, low, lows, major snow storms, map, maps, moisture, nao, New Jersey, New York, New York City, Newark, normal, normals, northern, Ohio, patience, Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, plains, Polar Jet Stream, Poughkeepsie, Rain, rain event, Reading, rebound, regime, s, saturday evening, Scranton, showers, snow, snows, south, southeasterly winds, southwesterly winds, Storm, storm track, storms, sunday morning, surfaces, Sussex, systems, temperature, temperatures, tilt, Trough, valleys, warm, weeke, west, White Plains, Wild Wood, wills. Technical Discussions Closed

Models come into agreement with back door cold front

March 18th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

7:10 AM
It’s always nice for a forecaster when all the medium range model guidance comes into a general agreement in any situation, especially with details of a back door cold front in the Spring. There is now strong support to push an impressive back door cold front through the entire forecast area on Sunday evening, [...]

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Strong Cold Front On The Way, But First A Very Mild Day

March 18th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

6:47 AM
Temperatures this morning are a bit on the cool side with most locations in the 30’s and 40’s, however expect a quick rebound into the 50’s and 60’s this afternoon!
High pressure is currently sitting right over Atlantic City, New Jersey and is slowly sliding off to the east into the Atlantic. Winds will [...]

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March Madness Begins

March 8th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

9:11 AM
March madness is about to begin for the forecast area. Well, really it’s already started. So far this March we’ve had a snow storm that produced more snow for some locations than what we received for December, January, and February combined; we’ve had mid 60’s for highs, and now an eventual return to cold [...]

Tags: Albany, Allentown, area, Atlantic, Atlantic City, Belmar, blocking, Bridgeport, canada, clock, clouds, coast, cold, combinations, Connecticut, continuation, CONUS, county, doors, drought, england, evenings, extremes, ey, flood, flooding, floods, forecast, forecaster, forecasters, Freehold, front, Hartford, high, Islip, Jets, lifting, Long Island, low, lows, madness, metros, mid, moderation, moisture, nao, New Jers Newark, New York, New York City, normal, normals, north, Northeast, northern, nuts, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, plains, Poughkeepsie, precipitation, precipitations, Rain, Rainfall, Reading, satellite, Scranton, showers, snow, snows, south, Storm, storms, suggestion, surprise, surprises, Sussex, systems, temperature, temperatures, thunderstorm, thunderstorms, valleys, warm, weather, weeke, west, White Plains, Wild Wood, wills. Technical Discussions Closed

Mesoscale Madness

March 2nd, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

9:55 AM
There are two impressive bands of snow setting up over the forecast area. As seen on the radar image on the left (hat tip to Weather Tap), one band is over coastal New Jersey and the other is over eastern Pennsylvania. The one over Pennsylvania is associated with the deformation zone that will eventually [...]

Tags: Albany, Allentown, area, Atlantic City, band, Belmar, Bridgeport, city metro, coastal front, Connecticut, continuation, deformation zone, Disturbance, east, eastern Pennsylvania, extremes, ey, forecast, forecast area, forecaster, forecasters, Freehold, front, Hartford, hat tip, heavy snow, interaction, Islip, Long Island, madness, maturity, mesoscale, metros, mid, mid level, moderation, New Jers Newark, New York, New York City, Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Poughkeepsie, pva, radar, radar image, Reading, Scranton, snow, snow band, snows, Storm, storms, strong interaction, Sussex, tap, upper level disturbance, weather, White Plains, Wild Wood, wills. Technical Discussions Closed

Afternoon Thoughts

March 1st, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

5:21 PM
Well, the storm is right on the door steps as snow has started to fall over southern New Jersey.
At this point, the upper level structure of this storm is rather impressive. The upper level low remains strong and separate of the northern branch, which has been key to this point. The conveyor belts [...]

Tags: advection, Albany, Allentown, amounts, area, ascent, Atlantic City, band, Belmar, Bridgeport, city metro, coast, cold, cold air, Connecticut, convection, convective, convective precipitation, conveyor belts, crash, dbz, dbzs, dense air, doors, evenings, extremes, Fall, fillings, forecast, forecast area, forecaster, forecasters, Freehold, guidance, Hartford, heavy snow, Islip, level structure, light precipitation, Long Island, low, lows, mesoscale, meteorology, metros, mid, mid levels, Model Guidance, models, New Jersey, New York, New York City, Newark, northern, observation, observations, orientation, Pennsylvania, perfect storm, Philadelphia, Poughkeepsie, precipitation, precipitations, radio, ratios, Reading, result areas, Scranton, snow, snow event, snowfall, snowfall amounts, snows, Storm, storm event, storm track, storms, suggestion, surface temperatures, surfaces, Sussex, systems, temperature, temperatures, warm, watches, White Plains, Wild Wood, wills. Technical Discussions Closed

Major Changes And The Reasons Behind Them

February 28th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

8:47 AM
An extremely rare and extremely difficult forecast is evolving for the forecast area this morning. In previous posts, I stated my doubts of a heavy snowfall as a perfect track with perfect timing was going to be needed to produce a significant snowfall along the coast. The model guidance and more importantly, the atmosphere [...]

Tags: accumulation, advection, Albany, Allentown, area, Atlantic, Atlantic City, atmosphere, Belmar, blocking, boundary layer, Bport, caa, canada, canadian maritimes, clouds, coast, cold, cold air advection, Connecticut, continuation, Disturbance, dives, doubts, east, england, enhancement, evenings, evolution, exiting, extremes, Fall, forecast, forecast area, forecaster, forecasters, Freehold, Georgia, gradient, guidance, Hartford, heavy snowfall, high, interaction, Islip, jet stream, Jets, Long Island, low, low pressure system, lows, map, maps, mid, misses, Model Guidance, models, moderation, moisture, New Jersey, New York, New York City, Newark, north, Northeast, northern, Pennsylvania, perfect timing, periods, Philadelphia, plains, Poughkeepsie, precipitation, Rain, rain and snow, rain snow, Reading, relaxation, Ridge, Rockies, s, scattered rain, Scranton, showers, slight shift, snow, snow showers, snow storm, snowfall, south, Southeast, Storm, storms, suggestion, surfaces, Sussex, systems, tights, totals, Trough, troughs, waves, weeke, west, White Plains, Wild Wood, wills. Technical Discussions Closed