Flurrie | NY NJ PA Weather Forecasts

A Quiet Return To Normal

February 13th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

6:45 AM
After a very windy day yesterday, high pressure has started to take over. However, a mid level disturbance is moving through the forecast area this morning has brought overcast conditions this morning to much of the forecast area. The clouds will slowly break up through the day with partly cloudy conditions by this afternoon. [...]

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Is The Negative NAO Going To Pull A Cruel Joke?

February 12th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

There’s been a lot of discussion around the internet and, of course, hear about the potential for the up coming pattern, which we are in a period of transitioning to as I type.
Initially, the 50/50 low that develops becomes a dominant feature in the pattern over the Eastern United States. Clearly, the strong upper [...]

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Banding Developing Over The Forecast Area

February 3rd, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

2:05 PM
Areas of snow banding is developing over the forecast area. There are three distinct bands that have developed over the forecast area this afternoon, one is over central and eastern Long Island, the second is over central New Jersey, and a third is over southeastern Pennsylvania through Maryland. The development of these bands mean [...]

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Light Snow Through Today

February 3rd, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

6:40 AM
So now that we have looked at what is going on now, let’s go forward for the rest of the today.
Temperatures will continue to fall through today with the day’s highs occurring right now. Temperatures will fall through the 20’s and 30’s through the afternoon as precipitation continues to develop over the forecast area. [...]

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Inverted Trough Will Bring Light To Moderate Snow To The Forecast Area

February 2nd, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

7:24 AM
I think the best corse of action through the next 66 hours is to use caution with this forecast. The reason why the model guidance has moved away from the “big storm” idea is because the southern branch disturbance does not phase with the northern branch disturbance. Instead, each disturbances moves through separately at [...]

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A Super Weekend For The Super Bowl

January 30th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

6:37 AM
Okay, so the Super Bowl is no where near the forecast area, but the weather conditions will still be great for traveling to your favorite hot spot to watch the game or to go out and get about 80 pounds of wings. Personally, I’m rooting for a good game and hopefully less officiating.
Anyway, [...]

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Ice Concerns Grow As Precipitation Races East

January 27th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

11:43 PM
While everyone has been debating about the trends of models (yes, there IS a cold “correction” to the guidance), what has me more interested is what is happening right in front of our noses.
There are several trends over the past few hours that I want to point out.
The first image is the [...]

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Minor Snow For Sunday Night Into Monday

January 24th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

8:32 PM
For the past several days I have advertised the idea of a light snow developing Sunday night through Monday morning for southern portions of the forecast area, specifically for southern New Jersey.
Moisture is now starting to develop over Nebraska and expand eastwards towards the north/central Plains. As this moisture moves eastwards towards the [...]

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Defined Thoughts And Increasing Confidence

January 24th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

10:52 AM
I’m going to cover all the thoughts for the next seven (7) days in this one post. The reason is because the short and medium range periods are really interconnected so there’s no point in splitting them up. So get that coffee cup and prepare to read a lot. I’m going to add more [...]

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Evening Thoughts: Dance Of The Models

January 23rd, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

8:46 PM
The models did this. The models did that. We have a had a lake cutter, a major snow storm, a rain storm, and even no storm at all. So clearly, we should hug the models from run to run.
The basic overall pattern idea has not changed one bit. The 12Z guidance theme was [...]

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