NY NJ PA Weather Forecasts

Showers and thunderstorms moving east from the Atlantic

9:45 AM
The area of low pressure that has produced widespread flooding and wind damage continues to sit just southwest of the Philadelphia metropolitan area over central Maryland.
The low pressure system is currently drawing an area of showers and thunderstorms into the forecast area from the Atlantic.  These showers and thunderstorms are capable of heavy downpours, [...]

Very heavy rain is on the way for New Jersey coast

8:59 PM
The coastal low is clearly becoming the primary low pressure system this evening as very strong lifting is developing off the coast along with a classic satellite signature of cyclogenesis.
The radar this hour is clearly showing an area of very heavy rain just south of Cape May, New Jersey moving north towards the coast. [...]

A nice break from winter mayhem

7:53 AM
Most times in life, too much of a good thing can become a bad thing.  I believe many will agree we are at that point when it comes to snowfall for this month.  Considering that many locations in the Philadelphia and New York City metropolitan area have received above normal to record breaking snowfall [...]

A break from the winter weather assault

11:50 AM
The northern Mid Atlantic is getting a bit of a breather from the active winter weather of the past week.  After two major winter storms approaching blizzard conditions, impacted the region over the past seven days, high pressure is providing generally tranquil conditions.
As we can see from the water vapor satellite picture, another storm [...]

Blizzard conditions expected from Philadelphia through New York City

8:22 AM
A significant winter storm is beginning to develop over the Gulf Coast that will bring the entire forecast area heavy snowfall and very strong winds.  The most significant impacts will be focused towards the coastal plain once again, where many locations have experienced one of the snowiest winters of all time.  This storm will [...]

12Z NAM Thoughts

9:55 AM
The 12Z NAM is out and to the left is the QPF output for the storm based on this run.  Now I know many of you in northeastern Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey, and even New York City are screaming right now in frustration.  Is the NAM forecasting a miss for these areas?  Well,not exactly.
What [...]

Rain and minor ice threat on tap today

8:39 AM

An intensifying low pressure system is moving through the Tennessee Valley this morning with heavy rain approaching southern New Jersey.  The heavy rain is expected to spread throughout the Philadelphia and New York City metropolitan area through this morning and become heavy this afternoon.
The hold of cold air is starting to give over most [...]

That cold air is knocking on the door!

9:40 AM
The low pressure system well to the east of Long Island this morning is going to be the trigger for a very cold and latter, a very active pattern for much of the eastern United States.
Currently, this low pressure system had the potential to produce very heavy snowfall for much of the northern [...]

After morning showers, temperatures fall

7:20 AM
This morning, a strong disturbance is moving through central Pennsylvania producing rain and snow showers throughout the Philadelphia and New York City metropolitan areas.  As this disturbance is moving east, the surface trough is strengthening into a closed low that will produce a period of moderate snow over the central and northern Hudson Valley [...]

Evening Thoughts: The risk of a stronger, more defined coastal low

11:00 PM
In this morning’s post I discussed the threat of a stronger coastal low due to a more pronounced coastal front.  The guidance from 12Z and 18Z took a troubling turn in suggesting just that scenario.  One of which, that even suggest that the coastal low becomes the primary low SOUTH of the northern Mid [...]