NY NJ PA Weather Forecasts

Preliminary Storm Recap

4:10 PM
Another round of rainfall is expected tonight with this storm, however the worst conditions are over.
The storm developed initially as a frontal boundary off the New Jersey coast.  As a strong upper low started to drive towards the Mississippi Valley, the low and eventually mid level winds began to veer to the southeast off [...]

Significant rain event on the way

4:19 PM
Clouds are already building over much of the northern Mid Atlantic this afternoon in response to the increasing moisture from the Atlantic as the high pressure system that has produced great weather conditions the past few days now exits into the Atlantic.  A weak mid level disturbance was able to use some of this [...]

Significant heavy rain threat expected this weekend

4:30 PM
A significant rainfall event is expected to begin late on Thursday and is expected to continue through early next week.  All model guidance is coming into strong agreement on the development of a long duration rain event for all of the northern Mid Atlantic.
A strong upper low currently over the central Plains will slowly [...]

Tranquil conditions continue, but rainy weekend on the way

7:30 AM
High pressure continues to remain just to the west of the Philadelphia and New York City metropolitan area, creating a light and dry northwesterly wind and clear skies.  The down sloping component of the northwesterly wind off the Appalachian Mountains will support warm temperatures once again with most locations in the 50’s to possibly [...]

Uncertainty remains as major winter storm heads east

7:43 AM
I would love to say this morning that I know exactly what this storm is going to do and that I have complete confidence in the way the models are handling the moisture advection at the mid levels, the expansion of the precipitation shield, and the strength of the Sub Tropical disturbance.  If I [...]

Got to know when to hold them, know when to fold them

9:30 PM
Yes, I love Kenny Rogers too and one of my favorite songs is The Gambler!
“You got to know when to hold ‘em, know when to fold ‘em.

Know when to walk away, know when to run
You never count your money, when you’re sittin’ at the table.
There’ll be time enough for countin’, when the dealin’s done.”
Well, [...]

Return to cold conditions as snow threat increases

8:10 AM
A weak disturbance behind the exiting cold front from yesterday, which produced rainfall amounts well over an inch in many locations, flash flooding, and some wind damage, has produced a few rain and snow showers early this morning, but is exiting into the Atlantic.  A deep Polar trough is become established over the eastern [...]

Evening Thoughts: The weekend storm and the future of this winter

Premium Content
9:51 PM
I’ve gotten a lot of emails through the day about pattern changes, storm questions, and pretty much everything in between.  First, I’ll answer one question I can share with everyone.  Yes, I really am a Mets fan.  So, lets get to the rest of the questions.
– Weather When Posted –Temperature: 28°F;Humidity: 46%;Heat Index: [...]

Where is the Sub Tropical Jet Stream?

PREMIUM CONTENT
7:16 AM
The arctic air is certain in place as a strong negative NAO dominates the eastern third of the United States.  While Polar and Arctic disturbances can still produce a healthy moderate snowfall like potentially for Friday evening, the more significant winter storms usually has interaction and influence from the Sub Tropical Jet Stream. [...]

Premium Content Preview: A swing and a miss… Maybe

9:47 PM
As of last night, the majority of model guidance started to take a decided jump towards a solution where much of the East coast with the exception of northern New England will miss out on what could have been an impressive snowfall.  So what are the models seeing and does the solution thus far [...]