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Tag Archive for 'frustration'

12Z NAM Thoughts

9:55 AM
The 12Z NAM is out and to the left is the QPF output for the storm based on this run.  Now I know many of you in northeastern Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey, and even New York City are screaming right now in frustration.  Is the NAM forecasting a miss for these areas?  Well,not exactly.
What [...]

February Thoughts

 The winter has been like a pendulum for the forecast area.  At one time the Pacific is favorable producing a sustained cold shot via a negative EPO/positive PNA positioning of the ridge, however the Atlantic is out of sorts with little blocking.  At other times, the negative NAO is strong and dominant, but the Pacific [...]

Forecast Ideas Coming Together, But Still A Lot Of Uncertainty

7:23 AM
The basic ideas of the forecast for the period of Sunday through Wednesday is starting to come together slowly but surely.  Let me first say the GFS 00Z and 06Z ideas have little support in developing a strong and defined trough in the West.  As such, I basically through the model guidance out in [...]



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