8:00 AM

The coastal low off the Virginia/North Carolina coastal waters this morning continues to slowly exit to the east-northeast this morning.  The coastal low actually has ended up slightly closer to the coast than expected, but is now moving into the Atlantic with diminishing impacts through the rest of the day.  However, much of the northern Mid Atlantic has felt the influences of this low pressure system more than most thought, as the precipitation shield expanded further north and west than what has been suggested on guidance, which was warned by me for several days.

The majority of accumulating snowfall has already occurred for many locations west of the Delaware River with on average 2 to 4 inches of snow has accumulated has the precipitation shield expanded north and west last night.  Through this morning, snow will continue to taper off to scattered snow showers with little significant impact to travel conditions.

Closer to the coast, a mix of rain and snow is moving through the region with temperatures remain above freezing for most locations.  An accumulation of 1 to 4 inches is expected over the Hudson Valley and Connecticut where temperatures will remain at or just below freezing while the immediate New York City metropolitan area through the northern suburbs of Philadelphia will have accumulations of around 1 to 3 inches, mostly on colder surfaces.

Along the coast, a mix of rain and snow will continue, but given that none of the snow is accumulating, the precipitation might as well be rain.  Precipitation totals through this afternoon will range from a half an inch to as much as an inch along the immediate coastline.  Winds will be sustained at 15 to 30 mph with higher gusts through this afternoon.

The most impressive impact from this storm will be the coastal flooding and strong winds along the coast and over the coastal waters.  A coastal flood warning has been issued for all of the New Jersey coast and a coastal flood advisory has been issued for Long Island through tonight.  As the low pressure system continues to intensify, gale warnings for sustained wind of 20 to 35 mph and gusts over 40 mph has been issued for all of the New Jersey coastal waters through tonight.

Once this low pressure system exits tonight, the weather pattern will become much more tranquil with a steady moderation in temperatures expected.  High pressure will become established over the Tennessee Valley tomorrow through Sunday with dry conditions, scattered clouds, and temperatures averaging near normal with afternoon highs in the upper 30′s to mid 40′s through the period and lows in the upper 20′s to mid 30′s.  Temperatures will moderate into the 40′s and lower 50′s by this weekend.

A cold front will move through the northern Mid Atlantic from the Great Lakes on Monday night and Tuesday morning with scattered showers, mostly rain, and slightly cooler temperatures.  However, no significant turn to colder weather is expected over the next seven days.