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Complicated and intense winter storm on the way

February 5th, 2010 by Steven DiMartino

8:10 AM
I have to admit, it is these types of forecasts that I love. High risk, high reward. Kind of like being a gambler in a way as the adrenaline is pumping. The forecast for this storm is one of the most complicated forecasts I’ve had to make in over 8 years of professional forecasting [...]

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Bitter cold remains as storm exits

January 31st, 2010 by Steven DiMartino

9:27 AM
The low pressure system that brought over 6 inches of snow to many locations throughout southern New Jersey is exiting into the Atlantic. Behind it, an Arctic air mass remains in control with temperatures in the single digits and teens for morning lows.
High pressure will continue to build into the region with decreasing winds [...]

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MJO continues to throw off everyone

January 16th, 2010 by Steven DiMartino

10:50 AM
PREMIUM CONTENT
If anyone has doubts that medium and long range forecasting is a difficult task, take a look at what the MJO has done the past few days. Yes, that lovely feature that helps drive the Sub Tropical Jet stream has produce a nice loop on itself, falling into a state of near non-influence [...]

Tags: air mass, aleutian islands, arctic air, arctic oscillation, doubts, East Coast, ecmwf forecast, favorable environment, gfs, Great Lakes, gulf of alaska, mjo, Model Guidance, northwestern canada, phase 5, Polar Jet Stream, southern canada, stratosphere, Trough, wave development. Technical Discussions Closed

The Polar disturbance that is causing the model mayhem

January 12th, 2010 by Steven DiMartino

Premium Content
7:49 AM
Another run and more indecision on the model guidance on what to expect for the period of Sunday night through Monday. What disturbance is causing these issues? I have found the culprit and this feature is not going to be handled very well until late in the week at the earliest!
– Weather When [...]

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Snow flurries today. More for the weekend?

January 12th, 2010 by Steven DiMartino

7:07 AM
This morning, a cold front is moving through the northern Mid Atlantic with scattered flurries throughout the New York City and Philadelphia metropolitan area. The cold front associated with these flurries is not very well defined and the majority of the cold air advection and isolated precipitation is being driven by an upper level [...]

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Tricky forecast for this week, timing is everything

January 11th, 2010 by Steven DiMartino

Premium Content
7:45 AM
This week the warning that timing is everything could not be truer. The movement of individual disturbances that are still over the Pacific will be key in determining exactly what type of storm is possible for next weekend.
– Weather When Posted –Temperature: 17°F;Humidity: 67%;Heat Index: 17°F;Wind Chill: 7°F;Pressure: 30.18 in.;

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Another cold morning, is snow far behind?

January 11th, 2010 by Steven DiMartino

7:07 AM
The strong Polar disturbance that is more developed than guidance suggested a few days ago is an important clue and reminder for the forecast later this week. For now, that disturbance represents another push of a Polar/Arctic air mass after Tuesday afternoon. The key to the forecast over the next several days is the [...]

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Major Storm on the horizon, what this means for the pattern

January 8th, 2010 by Steven DiMartino

7:37 AM
A major storm is showing up on the model guidance over the past three model runs. What does this storm mean for the pattern develop for the rest of the winter and what potential does this storm have for snow, ice, and rain for the northern Mid Atlantic?
– Weather When Posted –Temperature: 26°F;Humidity: 92%;Heat [...]

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Pattern change or no pattern change, what is going on right now

January 7th, 2010 by Steven DiMartino

Premium Content:
9:25 AM
There’s a lot to cover this morning. My primary focus is going to be on the pattern relaxation and then amplification for the medium and long range, but I want to touch on the light snow event for tonight into tomorrow first.
– Weather When Posted –Temperature: 32°F;Humidity: 59%;Heat Index: 32°F;Wind Chill: 21°F;Pressure: 29.92 [...]

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Tracking the MJO- influence on the long range forecast

January 6th, 2010 by Steven DiMartino

9:40 AM
The MJO is on the move and bless the models, they are trying to handle that tricky feature as best as it can. Let’s take a look at where the MJO is today and where I think it is going.
– Weather When Posted –Temperature: 28°F;Humidity: 58%;Heat Index: 28°F;Wind Chill: 16°F;Pressure: 29.75 in.;

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