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Evening Thoughts: The weekend storm and the future of this winter

January 11th, 2010 by Steven DiMartino

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9:51 PM
I’ve gotten a lot of emails through the day about pattern changes, storm questions, and pretty much everything in between. First, I’ll answer one question I can share with everyone. Yes, I really am a Mets fan. So, lets get to the rest of the questions.
– Weather When Posted –Temperature: 28°F;Humidity: 46%;Heat Index: [...]

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Evening Thoughts- Showers approach, long range thoughts

September 23rd, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

9:36 PM
A weakening cold front is approaching this evening with scattered showers over much of Pennsylvania and central New York. The cold front will continue to slowly move through the region over the next 24 hours.
The surface cold front is moving out ahead of the upper level trough, which will place the front under [...]

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Thunderstorm lovers will enjoy this week

July 25th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

10:05 AM
If you love thunderstorms and severe weather, and yes I know who those people are, they you will love this week. Of course, if this is the week were you wanted to spend time at the beach for vacation, you might be a bit disappointed.
This morning, the forecast area is between two upper level [...]

Tags: Albany, Allentown, Atlantic City, atlantic ocean, Belmar, Bridgeport, canadian maritimes, Citi Field, coastal waters, cold front, Connecticut, forecast area, Freehold, gfs, Great Lakes, greenland, hail, Hartford, heavy rain, humid conditions, Islip, level clouds, lightning, Long Island, Long Island Sound, Mets, Mid Atlantic, mid level, Model Guidance, New Jersey, New Jersey coast, New York, New York City, Newark, Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Phillies, Poughkeepsie, Reading, Scranton, severe weather, showers, Sussex, temperatures, thunderstorms, tides, today is the day, tomorrow morning, tornado, troughs, united states, western pennsylvania, White Plains, Wild Wood, Yankee Stadium, Yankees. Technical Discussions Closed

What has caused the heavy rainfall this month?

June 21st, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

9:52 AM
June has seen some very impressive rainfall amounts with many locations well over an inch above normal. Even some locations double the amount of normal rainfall. While a continuous onslaught of showers and thunderstorms have impacted much of the Mid Atlantic, and specifically the New York City and Philadelphia metropolitan areas, other locations have [...]

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This Pattern, More Than Meets The Eye

January 7th, 2009 by Steven DiMartino

7:51 AM
Taking a look at the pattern via surface maps, the potential and interest in the pattern through this weekend into next week would best be described as boring, especially the GFS. However, if one was to look at 500 MB, they would come away with a totally different perspective on this pattern that is [...]

Tags: a, air express, amounts, area, Atlantic, atmosphere, blocking, clipper, clippers, coast, cold, cold air, cold conditions, CONUS, different perspective, Disturbance, dives, doors, doubts, east, ecmwf, Energy, epo, ey, forecast, forecast area, forecaster, forecasters, game, games, gfs, greenland, guidance, interaction, lifting, low, lows, map, maps, mid, Mid Atlantic, Model Guidance, models, moderation, nao, north, Northeast, northeastern connecticut, nuetral, Philadelphia, pv, Rain, Ridge, s, shortwave, shortwaves, snowfall, snowfall amounts, south, south storm, storm track, storms, surface maps, surfaces, surprise, systems, Trough, ukmet, weeke, west, wills, Winter. Technical Discussions 1 Comment

Active And Blocking Pattern Ready To Rock Start Of 2009

December 31st, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

8:07 AM
There are some interesting themes that are coming from the medium range guidance over the past few runs that need to be addressed as we move into the first full week of January, 2009.
The first theme that the model generally agree on is that the block over Greenland will significantly intensify to build down [...]

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Major Winter Storm On The Way For Friday

December 29th, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

7:56 AM
This period of the forecast is growing increasingly interesting. While I continue to stress that the forecasting of snow/mix/rain lines is still around 24 (preliminary) to 66 hours away, the basic ideas in the model guidance are coming together for a significant storm to impact the forecast area. Let’s look at the general idea [...]

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12Z Thoughts And The Friday Evening Winter Event

December 28th, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

4:09 PM
I’m sure everyone has seen the latest 12Z guidance. The GFS is having trouble with the upper level features and the ECMWF is beginning to strut it’s stuff in the type 3 to 7 day span of dominance of accuracy.
Do I believe the ECMWF, well to an extent yes. I don’t want to put [...]

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Winter Returns, But Questions Remain

December 28th, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

10:22 AM
The up coming forecast for the middle and end of this week is going to be very difficult. The overall idea here on all model guidance is that the negative NAO block will be established while a series of clippers move through the forecast area. One clipper intensifies, and produces a strong Miller B [...]

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Active Pattern Developing While Models Have A Difficult Job Ahead

December 27th, 2008 by Steven DiMartino

12:54 PM
Or maybe I should say meteorologist like me who are shaking their heads while looking at the model guidance. When we have a difficult pattern unfolding, the best thing to do is not get bogged down with details of rain/snow lines and what not.
Let’s think about this set up for a second.
One, [...]

Tags: amounts, area, Atlantic, blocking, bust, busts, canada, clipper, clippers, coastal plain, coastal waters, cold, cold air mass, confidence, continuation, delware, dominance, doubts, east, eastern canada, eve, evenings, forecast, forecast area, forecaster, forecasters, friday evening, friday night, greenland, guidance, high, ice, intensity, isentropic, job, lifting, low, lows, meteorologist, mid, Mid Atlantic, Model Guidance, models, nao, New England, newfoundland, north, Northeast, northwestern canada, Ohio, pacific northwest, periods, plains, precipitation, Rain, rain snow, Ridge, s, significant snow, snow, snow and ice, soundings, south, Storm, storms, synoptic, systems, transition, transitions, Trough, valleys, weeke, west, wills. Technical Discussions Closed