Free weather forecast for New York, New Jersey, and eastern Pennsylvania.
11:05 PM
The 00Z guidance confirmed my suspicion that the 12Z guidance was not handling the development of the 700 MB upper low correctly.
At this time,this storm is clearly going to have a major impact on the entire northern Mid Atlantic. While I likely will have to adjust some features on the snowfall map to the [...]
8:10 AM
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The Sub Tropical disturbance moving through the Mississippi Valley is well organized and impressive, which is allowing the disturbance to draw plenty of moisture to the north over the Gulf Coast, Tennessee Valley, and Southeast. However, the current trend in guidance combined with the latest observations of the water vapor satellite images suggest [...]
9:22 AM
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This morning I’m looking at an overwhelming amount of data pointing to a returning cold pattern that frankly, I’ve had a hard time piecing together exactly what I’m seeing and what it means for the northern Mid Atlantic and the East coast as a whole. The implications of the developments at the stratospheric [...]
7:23 AM
This morning we can see the makings of what will be a powerful storm for this weekend as a strong Sub Tropical Disturbance now enters the western Gulf Coast. This storm will intensify and drive towards the Mid Atlantic coastal waters over the next few days. However, as the Sub Tropical jet stream becomes [...]
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9:25 AM
There’s a lot to cover this morning. My primary focus is going to be on the pattern relaxation and then amplification for the medium and long range, but I want to touch on the light snow event for tonight into tomorrow first.
– Weather When Posted –Temperature: 32°F;Humidity: 59%;Heat Index: 32°F;Wind Chill: 21°F;Pressure: 29.92 [...]
11:00 PM
In this morning’s post I discussed the threat of a stronger coastal low due to a more pronounced coastal front. The guidance from 12Z and 18Z took a troubling turn in suggesting just that scenario. One of which, that even suggest that the coastal low becomes the primary low SOUTH of the northern Mid [...]
10:20 PM
Models have started to back off the Southeast ridge, large Polar Vortex over western Canada idea as of the 12Z runs. The most notable change can be observed in the 12Z ECWMF. In the previous days, in both 00Z and 12Z guidance, the ECMWF suggested the Polar Vortex would put an end to the [...]
9:45 AM
Over the past several weeks I have been strongly hinting at a cold start to December. The various indicators I’ve been looking at to make these statements include the Stratospheric anomalies of late, the development of the MJO state, and the growth of snow cover over much of Alaska and northwestern Canada.
As the models [...]
8:20 PM
I have some concerns about the idea that this storm isn’t coming north or at the very least is not going to have an impact on the northern Mid Atlantic. As the dance of the models continues and the 18Z GFS shifted towards a wetter solution for the New Jersey coast again, I decided [...]
6:50 AM
A cold front over central Pennsylvania will continue to progress to the east this morning and move through the Philadelphia and New York City metropolitan areas this afternoon. For the most part, an available moisture has been focused well to the east with yesterday’s coastal low that is now over the northern portions of [...]
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