NY NJ PA Weather Forecasts

Warmer times ahead after glancing blow

7:48 AM
A strong area of low pressure is rapidly developing along the Gulf Coast, however this storm is staying far enough south and east to not have a major impact on the region’s weather.
The “pattern changer” as I like to call it is not over the Gulf Coast however but the West coast as a [...]

Minor snow threat for Tuesday night into Wednesday morning

9:15 PM
A very energetic Sub Tropical disturbance is rapidly developing along the Gulf Coast this evening.  However, a more important disturbance that will determine the forecast is actually along the West coast.
While the storm along the Gulf Coast certainly appears ominous, the progression of the Pacific storm this evening into the coast of Washington and [...]

A quiet weekend ahead, however storm threat grows for Monday night

7:42 AM
As high pressure brings dry conditions and clear skies to the northern Mid Atlantic, a moisture loaded storm is brewing over the Southeast.  This time the Philadelphia and New York City metropolitan areas will not have to worry about the developments along the Gulf Coast as the strong low pressure that impacted the region [...]

Complicated and intense winter storm on the way

8:10 AM
I have to admit, it is these types of forecasts that I love.  High risk, high reward.  Kind of like being a gambler in a way as the adrenaline is pumping.  The forecast for this storm is one of the most complicated forecasts I’ve had to make in over 8 years of professional forecasting [...]

Active Sub Tropical Jet to play important role next several weeks

8:05 AM
High pressure centered over the Ohio Valley is supporting yet another cold morning with temperatures in the teens and lower 20’s.  Although cold, the air mass is already starting to moderate from the Arctic extremes experienced this past weekend, especially over the northern tier.
The water vapor this morning illustrates that developing Sub Tropical jet [...]

MJO and Stratosphere point to active February

7:50 AM
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Stratospheric temperatures continue to rise steadily this morning with much of the atmospheric layer from 1 MB to 70 MB now averaging above normal.  The warming at 1 M is starting to slow some as the temperatures approach record highs, however model guidance from the ECMWF suggest another period of warming is on [...]

Got to know when to hold them, know when to fold them

9:30 PM
Yes, I love Kenny Rogers too and one of my favorite songs is The Gambler!
“You got to know when to hold ‘em, know when to fold ‘em.

Know when to walk away, know when to run
You never count your money, when you’re sittin’ at the table.
There’ll be time enough for countin’, when the dealin’s done.”
Well, [...]

Additional thoughts on tomorrow morning

8:10 AM
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The Sub Tropical disturbance moving through the Mississippi Valley is well organized and impressive, which is allowing the disturbance to draw plenty of moisture to the north over the Gulf Coast, Tennessee Valley, and Southeast.  However, the current trend in guidance combined with the latest observations of the water vapor satellite images suggest [...]

After morning showers, temperatures fall

7:20 AM
This morning, a strong disturbance is moving through central Pennsylvania producing rain and snow showers throughout the Philadelphia and New York City metropolitan areas.  As this disturbance is moving east, the surface trough is strengthening into a closed low that will produce a period of moderate snow over the central and northern Hudson Valley [...]

Winter cold returns. Will snow follow?

8:14 AM
In case you don’t know, the sustained cold pattern is here and it is not going to leave any time soon.  Temperatures this morning are in the mid to upper 20’s over the interior and lower to mid 30’s along the coast, and those temperatures will not be moving far to reach the afternoon [...]